I've done some price simulations for Steem that I want to share with you.

I do not know to say through technical analysis a possible price following the indicators but if I know to calculate a value based on the study of a company.

Before I start with the price simulations of Steem I will show you some Bloomberg screens and charts:

• The descriptions of the three companies that today dominate social networks (with the permission of steem for the moment), Facebook, Twitter and Snapchat (which has had an accidentous IPO):

• Chart comparing the dollar capitalization of the three companies to three years adding the companies Line, Sina and Weibo. Here we see the considerable increase in the value of Facebook and the collapse of Twitter.

• Screen showing the dollar capitalization of the companies in the previous chart, P/E, ROE and the price variation of one day and one month.

The conclusions I draw from social network sector are as follows:

• Facebook is worth more than double that of all its competitors.
• The sector is somewhat expensive even if it is technological companies (P/E average 80).
• No company pays dividends.

From these conclusions I draw great advantages that Steemit has and the Steem currency compared to its competitors:

• Steem is very cheap compared to all the social networks and the one that has more route being Steemit in a stage of development very little advanced.
• Steemit continuously pays dividends to its users, not to investors, but to users who share content, vote, etc, that is, those who give life to Steemit.

Looking at these advantages, I have done two types of price simulations. Both simulations start from the data of MARKET CAP/RATIO USERS MONTHLY. The number of active monthly users I have taken from the page https://steemd.com/ and the market cap of https://coinmarketcap.com/

I have calculated that this Ratio today is $9,630.37. Each active user has this value in Steemit.

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SIMULATION 1:

I have taken from the page https://www.statista.com the number of monthly active users of Facebook, which is 1.94 billion, and I have assumed several scenarios.

Let's imagine that Steem wins monthly users to Facebook, due to the fundamental advantage of paying dividends. The 20 scenarios are gaining market share from 0.0005% to Facebook to 0.01%, with jumps of 0.0005%. The first scenario gives me a price of $1.54 for Steem, but the scenario in which "alone" removes a 0.01% market share from Facebook, Steem's price would be $9.13. Imagine that you get to remove a 1% of quota to Facebook ... its price would be $800.84.

All this counting on the ratio MARKET CAP/RATIO USERS MONTHLY is fixed at $9,630.37 .

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SIMULATION 2:

Given that it is clear that the price of a social network is determined by the number of active users that the platform has, I have done this simulation that is divided into three scenarios in which the monthly active user ratio increases by 1%, 2% and 3% by the end of the year. In this way I try to give a target price for December 31, 2017 with these metrics.

The result is that for active user increases of 1% its price would be $1.56, for 2% increases would be $2.14 and for 3% increases $2.93.

What is your Steem target price for December 31, 2017?

I bet on $2.93.

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Thank you very much for reading me.

NOTE: Data and images are from Bloomberg, https://www.statista.com and https://steemd.com

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