Effective payouts are currently much higher than predicted

in #steemit7 years ago (edited)

Good news for all authors!

Yesterday (2017-05-11) I recieved a payout for an article. I'm using it here as an example to prove my thesis in the headline. As it was the biggest payout I ever got, I want to say a big

THANK YOU

to all my supporters first. They are listed here:

thejohalfiles, htooms, twinner, wackou, slowwalker, demotruk, sochul, abdullar, pharesim, baharoba, leesunmoo, dirkzett, sanghkaang, ioc, fabio, behappy7, knircky, roelandp, jaki01, kus-knee, vcelier, woo7739, hipster, chris4210, nextgen622, lichtblick, acidyo, michaeldodridge, redpalestino, daveks, fyrstikken, norbu, kview, canadian-coconut, majes, bitcoinsig, stephenkendal, gotoperson, gomeravibz, dzone, achim86, sandra, jsg, afrog, jason, goodvibrations, freiheit50, orionvk, jonathanyoung, allyouneedtoknow, ihashfury, schamangerbert, idnit, busser, tabea, ausbitbank, angel76, saamychristen, kobold-djawa, da-dawn, stray, grey580, orenshani7, jdbry, digit, maarnio, jjbobby34, lellabird60, pal, breezin, gammagooblin, deutschbot, neptun, trans-juanmi, ianstrat, ninkhisibir, verelst, reisman, rizkiavonna, projectnewbie, krystle, bookman, mrfoot, sqube, rohan0108, evildeathcore, herbertmueller, angels, idnit9, witidnit10, strawhat, idnit2, idnit4, idnit3, idnit6, idnit8, idnit5, idnit7, idnit0, idnit1, themanualbot, simplest, victorious, samether, jeanviete, christiantrail, assus, contact95, charm, carlos-cabeza, torem-di-torem, uwe69, kochmaster, beyazpanda91, aurai, addanat, osmanbugra, geko099, nfcprod, mapipaz, cryptochannel, z3r0d4yz, jayfox, steemer0815, juliosalas, andrianna, lx-bmx, misalen, christoryan, aismor, nang1, tamersameeh, speckofdust, unipsycho, mistere, social, tbraun, christoph3, malow, radlerjan, legends, cherished, the-architect, lamdo2018, vorbildlich, einwandfrei, feuer, wasser, team101, luft, erde, cathynsons, delightful, smileyface, springtime, maxschneider, darth-cryptic, yuriks2000

The predicted payout

One finds the predicted values for payout on my steemit desktop:

Note that the predicted author reward amounts USD 99,96.
Since HF 18 the division of the rewards between author and curators is 80%/20%.

The effective payout in SBD and SP can be shown on the reward tab of my steemit desktop:

Exchange rates

At the moment of the payout I captured the relevant exchange rates by screenshot:

The exchange rate of SBD versus BTC was 0,000955 on poloniex.com.

Calculation

With these data I made the following calculation:

So we have a surplus of 33,79%! That's stunning. The primary reason for this phenomenon is the overvaluation of the SBD which lasts already several weeks. I hope this will continue.

Thanks for reading :-)

I'm awaiting your comments. Each senseful comment will get an answer and an upvote.

Sort:  

The payout you got was the same as predicted.
It was predicted in SBD.

Wow. Really? Reality can be so simple. But why doesn't the desktop use 'SBD' istead of '$' ??

P.S. The thisis of @felixxx isn't right. I disproved it in another calculation, because 57 SP aren't equal to 50 SBD. 57 SP are only 25 SBD.

I guess because 1 SBD should really be 1 USD if it wasn't for weird traders ...

P.S. My guess is that 57 SP equal 50 SBD in the witness pricefeed ...

You are right 50%. The SBD payout is nearly 50% of the author reward. I proved this for some other posts. The problem lies in the difference between the calculated and effective payout in SP.

As I said, I think this is because the witness price feed is used to calculate the SP.
It is not the same as the current market price.
I don't fully understand how it works, though.

Thanks for telling us. I have one questions concerning payouts: don´t we get steem anymore? I few week ago we always got steem, SBD and SP but I don´t see amy steem in my payouts anymore is this only temporary? - Thanks for the answer.

Good question! Your observation is right. I think the mechanism to peg the SBD to the USD doesn't work so good as it should. Therefore the kind of payout in steem and SBD varies.

Like to have an answer on this question too, therefor I write under your question. Has it changed to 7 days payout? Or what happened?

To put it simple:
The SBD is currently overvalued.
We are 'printing' more SBD to cover the demand.

Great analysis.

Glad to see this kind of calculation!

Wish you more, you know! :)

Here I wait for my first payout! Let's see how this one goes.

btw: I like how you included yourself in the list of your supporters :)

Thanks for info.
Happy to read, support and see your calculation,
Keep the good job

Samer

Thanks for analysis here!!

This post has been ranked within the top 50 most undervalued posts in the first half of May 12. We estimate that this post is undervalued by $9.59 as compared to a scenario in which every voter had an equal say.

See the full rankings and details in The Daily Tribune: May 12 - Part I. You can also read about some of our methodology, data analysis and technical details in our initial post.

If you are the author and would prefer not to receive these comments, simply reply "Stop" to this comment.

Why would you upvote this spam @freiheit50 ?

I wanted to be kind.

It's the same comment under every post.

Thanks! Unvoted.

You do not love cats :(

I don't like spam and I don't like cats, either.

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