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RE: Why I Want to Short Steem [Beyond Trading –part2. 08/23/2016]
What exactly in the Steem economy are you comparing to Bitcoin? Steem? Steem Power or SBD?
What exactly in the Steem economy are you comparing to Bitcoin? Steem? Steem Power or SBD?
That's a good question. Since the economy of Steem is very unique (built in inflation, pegged assets, vested shares which are locked in for a total of 2 years), it's hard to make a direct comparison. They are both based on blockchain technology, and they are both cryptographically secure tokens of value. I like the multiple levels of security so people can do memos without exposing their active / owner key. Personally, I think Steem/Steem Power/SBD (together) could end up being more valuable than Bitcoin because it has a lot of flexibility. You can hold SBD. You can hold Steem Power. Or you can use liquid STEEM as needed. On top of that, it has direct perceived value via the social media platform and can be a gateway for non-crypto users to get into crypto (I wrote a post about how it converted my wife after three years of my own failed attempts).
So the answer to your question is the value of all three combined. They all compliment each other to provide more features than Bitcoin. Pump and dumps become difficult when Steem is Powered up. That's a good thing, IMO, and encourages long term investment. A single token (STEEM, Steem Power, SBD) may have some downsides compared to bitcoin, but together, I think they combine to provide a lot of upsides.
Ok, thanks! Now to answer the question you asked @james-show: Bitcoin went from buying two pizzas for 10K to where it is today because it has succeeded to be perceived as a viable store of value/monetary asset. The only token close to that is SBD, but SBD needs STEEM to have a price of above zero and that's exactly what James and I are asking: what makes people think that STEEM will be valued at above zero? I can think of "fun" and "liking the platform", but no reasons an investor would take seriously. I am a financial advisor, who loves Steemit and has put his money where his mouth is. I am worried if I don't find any reason to tell even savy investors to invest. Please don't get me wrong, I'm not attacking you, but what you express is mere wishful thinking and evading the question.
"So the answer to your question is the value of all three combined. "
You can't even price that. That's your subjective perception and I totally understand that, because I feel (!!!) the same. But to an impassionate investor, it looks like being asked to be a greater fool.
Of course, things could change. If I did not believe that, I would not have written this, but changes have to be made:
https://steemit.com/steemit/@fabio/so-who-is-actually-paying-the-steemit-bill
Thanks for the link, I replied there as well.
I disagree there because STEEM is also a valid, liquid cryptocurrency and Steem Power is even more valuable as a long term store of value that could (potentially) even increase in value as a rising stock which splits does. That, surely, relies completely on the value of STEEM rising in value. :)
What prevents us from asking the same question of any cryptocurrency? Of the USD itself or gold/silver? To me, STEEM can have value because of it's combined value in the Steemit ecosystem with Steem Power and SBD.
I think all decisions investors make fall on this spectrum to some degree. We don't know the future and if we could make completely rational decisions here, everyone would do it and the price would already represent that future value perfectly. This is the chaos of the market. :)
Sorry, that was not my intention. I truly do see STEEM, Steem Power, and SBD as directly linked together.
Why not? Because no one's done it before? I think the market will grow to price it if Steemit ends up providing value to others.
Thanks again! Unfortunately I don't know how to quote you like you did, but I'll try:
"I disagree there because STEEM is also a valid, liquid cryptocurrency and Steem Power is even more valuable as a long term store of value that could (potentially) even increase in value as a rising stock which splits does. That, surely, relies completely on the value of STEEM rising in value. :)"
You answer your objection yourself, don't you? STEEM is explicitely designed as a hot potato. To make it extreme: it's more like sand and not like gold. It is not scarce. You can't compete with Bitcoin with such features.
As for evading the question...please keep in mind that I am not native speaker, maybe it was the wrong expression. I was not meaning to imply that you are consciously evading it. I also do not take any offense or things like that, because what I am trying to say is that you are evading the question for yourself and fooling yourself out of "confirmation bias".
Let's try this:
I guess you have heard about the russian clone with their GOLOS. You are not emotionally attached to it, I guess. So now try to explain to me why you think anyone is going to buy GOLOS just to make russian authors happy?
Does that make sense?
Last but not least, the pricing. The current way of giving the value you (and I) perceive a price tag is the market cap in Steem/BTC. The concept is flawed on its own, but that's what I wanted to say: there is imho so far no way to price the combined value you perceive. You say "if Steemit ends up providing value to others". Of course it is valuable to all kind of people, like us. But it's the people who buy Steem who actually make the price tag and if they think they are just here to pay the show, they won't do that very long.