Some Musings About The Upcoming Capitulation - The Current Crypto Catastrophe
First of all, please relax, the title sounds way too pessimistic, but I couldn't refrain myself: I do enjoy a good alliteration every once in a while. If you have no idea what an alliteration is, well, it's the repetition of a certain letter, or the choice of words which are starting with a certain letter. In this case, the letter is "C" and the relevant words are: "capitulation" and "catastrophe".
Second, I'm not into the FUD train, nor into the "let's all jump under a bus" train. I don't think that Bitcoin is going to zero, nor that all the alts will collapse. Bitcoin will jump up again, and some of the alts will survive and do very well.
I also think the markets are always right and that helped in keeping my mental sanity at decent levels, lately. So, this "capitulation" thing is just another normal event in the markets.
With that in mind, let's get back to the article topic.
So, a couple of weeks ago I wrote this:
So, given the overall context, I believe the price may go as low as $2,800, before stabilizing. That's where Bitcoin spent half of 2017, before the insane bull run of December. And before that, Bitcoin was at around $1,000. So my opinion is that whoever bought at (or above) $2800, will capitulate. Hardcore holders are still holding tight, with just a few exceptions. [...]
The good news is that after this capitulation, the bounce will be faster and it will go higher than the one in December.
Timeline for the bottom to be hit, 20-40 days. For the bounce: 4 to 6 months.
We are very close to the bottom timeline and, so far, the price is keep going south. 14 days passed since I wrote that, so I think in the next couple of weeks, just before New Year Eve, Bitcoin will touch its bottom. And the bottom is still at $2,800.
After that, I think a small uptick will keep the price somewhere in the $3k - $4k territory for the next 3 months. In February - March we may have another dip (Chinese New Year and tax season), but somewhere in May - April, the markets will rebound. Also, this rebound won't be as fast and spectacular as the last bull run. But it will go consistently upwards. By the end of 2019 we may be in the 15k - 18k corridor again.
Now, what are the reasons for these predictions? Which are not, by the way, financial advice, and should not be considered as such. These are just speculations.
First, I think an entire class of "investors" is now out. These are people who bought into FOMO. Lambo hunters, overnight crypto specialists or people enjoying extreme lifestyle and drastic decisions (like selling their houses for crypto and living in vans). These people are rekt and they aren't getting back. And I consider this to be a good thing. Extreme expectations are just as bad in trading as they are in relationships.
Second, I think the technical part is at the level which made Bitcoin (and a few other alts, STEEM included) ready for mass adoption. With Lightning, you can pay in Bitcoin instantly for a coffee at Starbucks and it will just work. I'm not even talking about STEEM and how easy it would be to pay for a coffee with it. The boundaries between traditional banking and crypto melted, with crypto detaching into a clear winner: it's faster, it just works and it's cheaper.
And third, regulation will enter a smoother stage, one in which crypto will morph into "a necessary evil" narrative from the "terrorist financing tool" mantra that it was during the last couple of years. Not only monolithic social structures (states, consortiums, alliances) will realize that crypto survived their most destructive attacks (from media manipulation to market manipulation) but it still grows. So, instead of rejecting it, they will, under certain conditions, accept it. Kind of like they did with cannabis.
As a side note, I don't think institutional money, from Bakkt to Nasdaq or ETF, will play a significant role in this change. They may help with smoothing out the media narrative, but the real push will come from atomic, single regular Joes. They will form the new, the real "wave of change".
As always, please keep in mind that this may or may not happen and, as I said, it's just speculation.
Time will tell.
I'm a serial entrepreneur, blogger and ultrarunner. You can find me mainly on my blog at Dragos Roua where I write about productivity, business, relationships and running. Here on Steemit you may stay updated by following me @dragosroua.
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I think this is a pretty realistic view on the market to come @dragosroua its almost the same as how I see it and I'm still awaiting for the possibility of Bitcoin to go down a little further.
I would also add the massive sell from last year ICO's. Most of those funded with Bitcoin and Ethereum and now adding to the market capitulation.
Yeap, agree 100% with this.
Smart contract killed cryto
Next year will indeed be interesting. If I have some spare cash, I may just do a little investing and see where it goes.
I saw a video the other day that said next year will be the make-or-break year for a bunch of crypto projects. Those that survive the year will probably stay. The rest will be consigned to the history books.
Presently, am so down with the current market that I don't believe this prediction of yours.
As always I really enjoy your analysis and I'm reading them like they are nerd candy :D
Thats a very well thought out and measured post mate and I also mentioned in a post recently that the positives we should be taking right now are the loss of the 'fast buck' merchants who have hopefully left the park with their tales beneath their legs.
Great post, and best wishes.
Careful man, you're branding yourself as a prophet! :)
Though I can't say it doesn't make sense to me, and I also agree with the 2800 bottom (maybe, if it's violent, it will briefly go to 2600-ish), your predictions are way to accurate lately. You're killing me with the appreciation of time it will take to reach certain thresholds.
Where do you see steem? I am growing my position but it won’t hurt to know a fellow Steemian’s opinion
In the long run, I see it higher than it is today.
But entropy is way too big lately, though, with all the uncertainty coming from Steemit INC.
Although I do believe Steem, as a blockchain / community, will survive even an exit scam from Steemit INC (in the worst case) or a continuation of the mismanagement we saw during the last two years, there will be a significant impact on the price. So I won't risk a very clear opinion now.
If SMT will be launched within a month and Steemit INC will become more transparent (both events quite unlikely, to be honest) it will bounce higher sooner than the rest of the crypto market.
But if we don't get out of the spiral of empty promises and management will continue to be hairy and lacking transparency, there will be a hard landing for many months until somebody picks up the remains of the damage and rebuilds something valuable.
ned really should let the witnesses help with development of steemit
Thank you for another wonderful 'cautious optimism' post. I'm just all in and not going anyplace, but it is good to know that I'm not alone.
I don't even want a Lambo. However a nice 6x6 Mercedes Camper would look good in my driveway :)
I don't think I've ever been called atomic and regular in the same sentence before. Come to think of it, I don't know that I've been called just regular :)
Great analysis and you're really putting yourself out there with specific prices. Gotta love it.