I would like to start this short opinion article with a full disclaimer: I absolutely love @dan technical genius and, on many points, our philosophical views are very similar.
With that being said, let's give you the Tl/DR version first:
I don't see any significant future of a "Steemit 2.0 clone on EOS"
Now The Long Version
If you followed EOS development and narrative during the last few months, you probably observed a recurring theme: re-loading Dan Larimer's former projects, BitShares and Steemit, on a new technical foundation. Basically, on EOS.
As a technical exercise, and as a PR stunt to show the capabilities of the EOS blockchain, I totally understand the idea. I think it would be really nice for EOS potential adopters to see real-life projects implemented - and working.
But as a business operation, I hope Dan and his investors are not setting up big hopes for this.
Because, beyond the technical layer, in any projects there is another one, equally important: people. Or, in our case, early adopters of the Steemit.com platform, from investors to authors and curators. Moving around this layer is way, way more difficult than moving the technical layer.
I still remember a situation from ten years ago, when Facebook was just exploding. On many PHP scripts sites there were literally hundreds of ready-made "Facebook clones". It was pretty much all the functionality of Facebook (of course, without the gigantic backend processing capabilities they have) in an instantly available form. All you had to do was to download the script, spin up a MySQL db and there you go, you have your own Facebook.
Did you ever hear a success story based on one of those scripts? No?
I thought so.
Because there wasn't really any.
We are in a similar spot right now. The "Steemit 2.0 on EOS" will be just another "Facebook clone" script.
The human layer is very inertial. Once they got the taste for something, it takes a lot of time and money to move this layer to another thing. Steemit.com is already 2 years old, and although it didn't reach a critical mass (compared with giants like Twitter or Facebook) it still has a sizable amount of regulars. In my opinion, we're talking about a core of more than 80k regulars.
This is not even remotely enough for taking on Twitter (not even Medium, for what matters) but it's enough for having consistency and potential. STEEM is still hovering around $200-$300 million market cap, which is not to be ignored. That amount of money is also inertial and it takes a lot to convince people invested to move around their assets.
If you don't believe me, just try to remember the ETH/ETC split. ETC is still on the market, is having a $1.5 billion market cap and it's a top twenty crypto asset.
So, even if "Steemit 2.0 on EOS" will get some traction, I wouldn't see it doing that good, in terms of business.
Yes, it may be a good PR stunt - even a necessary one, to showcase the capabilities of EOS - but I don't see it overcoming Steemit.com in terms of popularity, impact or exact market cap.
I'm a serial entrepreneur, blogger and ultrarunner. You can find me mainly on my blog at Dragos Roua where I write about productivity, business, relationships and running. Here on Steemit you may stay updated by following me @dragosroua.
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