For The Last 3 Months Bitcoin Was Trading At The Same Level - Then Which Cryptos Lost And Which Ones Gained?

in steemit •  2 months ago

As I was looking at the crypto charts for the last 3 months, I spotted a very interesting detail. For the last 3 months, Bitcoin was traded pretty much at the same level, which is $6,500. There were of course some variations (the most important ones being upwards), but if you really look at the entry price for these 3 months period and the current price, they're almost identical (source: Coinmarketcap)


Screen Shot 2018-10-05 at 1.10.50 PM.png


So Bitcoin is down less than 1.5% since 3 months ago, which is, however you look at it, good news.

But what happened to the rest of the market? Were all the crypto assets stagnant? Were there any losers or gainers?

In order to understand this we must have a look at the dominance chart (again, taken from Coinmarketcap)


Screen Shot 2018-10-05 at 1.11.28 PM.png


And here's where tings are starting to get really interesting.

But let's see the rough numbers first:

AssetStart %End %Relative Change %Absolute Change %
Bitcoin41.9752.38+ 10.31+ 19.08
Ethereum17.5910.41- 7.18- 40.81
Bitcoin Cash4.774.09- 0.68- 14.25
Litecoin1.781.55-.0.23- 12.92
Ripple7.019.47+ 2.46+ 35.09
Dash0.740.69-0.05%- 6.75
Nem0.630.43- 0.2- 31.74
Monero0.820.86+ 0.04+ 4.87
Iota1.210.72- 0.49- 40.49
Neo0.990.53-0.46- 46.46
Others22.4818.95- 3.53-15.70

The table columns are relatively easy to interpret: "start" / "end" represent the dominance, in percentages, for each asset at the beginning and at the end of the 3 months period. "Relative change" means how much the dominance of a certain asset changed relative to the entire pot, while "absolute change" means how much the asset changed relative to itself.

In other words "relative change" is the difference between start and end, while "absolute change" is how much, in percentages, the end value represents from the start value. I don't know how appropriate the term "absolute change" is, but I needed a metric to show the dynamic of an asset. Even if the grand scheme of things that asset takes only a small slice from the market, and it changed only a little, if it doubled in order to do so, that says something relevant about that asset.

So, where are we?

First of all, Bitcoin grew in absolute terms almost 20% which is a lot. But this growth is shadowed by the one Ripple experiences, which is more than a third. So, for the last 3 months, it wasn't Bitcoin who was the most dynamic bullish asset, but Ripple.

Second, this growth happened at the expense of some big losers. In terms of relative change, ETH lost about 7%, but in absolute terms, it shaved no less than 40%, which is huge. But as huge as this is, is comparable with two other assets which saw similar absolute change percentages: IOTA and Neo (and, to a certain extent, NEM). So, the most dynamic bearish assets are: ETH, IOTA, Neo and Nem.

Next comes Bitcoin Cash, which, along with Litecoin, saw moderate losses (12-14%).

And there is also another winner, Monero, which grew in absolute terms 4.87%.

Add to this DASH, which lost 6.75% in absolute terms, but only 0.05% in relative terms, and you have a much clearer picture.

So, what can we infer from this?

The ICO frenzy pushed ETH to unimaginable highs, but it seems it's also dragging it down at the same speed. Much of the ETH growth was built on these ICO's and ERC20 tokens distributions, but once the market saw that very few of these ICOs have actual value, the underlying token lost too.

The growth of Ripple seems to be related to institutional interest from investors, I have a hard time explaining this otherwise. Such a big change in such a short time is clearly coordinated and sustained by big players.

A moderate concern for privacy made Monero stick to top 10 and even grow a little, which I find remarkable.

As for the rest of the tokens, they are more or less in a limbo (except Litecoin, which seems to maintain its solidity). Bitcoin Cash is another topic and I won't talk about it here.

Where Is STEEM?

So, what happened to STEEM during the last 3 months? Unfortunately, it lost a lot:


Screen Shot 2018-10-05 at 2.09.07 PM.png


STEEM went from $1.63 to $0.87 and it seems to stabilize around the $0.8-$0.9 corridor for now. In marketcap terms, it went from $426 mil to $243 mil, which is a drastic decrease.

I think there is a combination of reasons for that:

  • inability to deliver on time on HF 20 and SMT. 2018 was supposed to be the year of SMT, but this didn't happen. Even more, a much needed upgrade represented by HF 20 was delayed for months (and when it was implemented, it was rather bumpy)
  • competition in the form of STEEM-based clones, like WeKu, or similar platforms built on other blockchains (Trybe, Yours, etc)
  • the dApp ecosystem plateaued, after a promising start, with some dApps choosing a different platform

On top of that, these coincided with a huge bear market, which amplified the effects.

Where To?

There is a widespread bullish sentiment in the markets regarding all crypto assets now, based primarily on previous historical movements (which are strikingly similar with this year chart patterns,) but also based on institutional money flowing in (mainly through OTC deals). I personally feel the same, but please be advised that feelings don't count in trading. So I think we will see an upwards move soon. How high and how soon? Hard to tell, but I'm thinking 2-3 months and, for Bitcoin, higher than $8,000, potentially up to $10,000.

As for STEEM, we really need to show that something was learned from HF 20. Both in the centralized part of the ecosystem (Steem INC) and in the decentralized one (witnesses, dApps owners, influencers). If that will happen, then next year SMT launch may push the token where it was at the end of last year, namely in the $5-$8 range. And even higher.

Time will tell, but, all in all, I'm remaining optimistic.


I'm a serial entrepreneur, blogger and ultrarunner. You can find me mainly on my blog at Dragos Roua where I write about productivity, business, relationships and running. Here on Steemit you may stay updated by following me @dragosroua.


Dragos Roua


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We have a bear market since the year begins now we can see an interesting laterality that made me feel positive about the market i mean in my opinion this market already hit bottom and in the next months we have to see an good recover first in bitcoin and then in alts. Regards

I'm expecting a big 12 months for STEEM. What I'm looking for now is the on boarding of users through the current apps in the system. This is in preparation for SMT's and the need to set a successful example for developers thinking about starting up on the blockchain. If they see that a project can be started successfully and with ease then they will flow that example to take advantage of the existing users here. If we have the proper system and the right userbase then apps will come here. We just need a positive start.

love these in depth analysis of the markets, they are educational and fun

Agreed, I think we should keep an eagle eye on new use cases. Is there a list with upcoming SMT's? There must be, in 6 month's we launch...

Yeah... it’s a pity Steem has drastically lost such a market cap. during this long correction...
We can only learn as you said from our mistakes here, nonetheless I am positive and fully committed with the project...
I hope steemit Inc , @steemit and @ned himself will show us soon a better implementation roadmap for the SMT, putting on the table better explained testing plans, deployment phases, risks and opportunities so the decentralized community could also audit the movement...
Steem on bro

This analysis is deep and profound, when I see medium size post from you, I know you are about to teach something.

There is a lot of ways futures trading will affect BTC price, now, a project is working on zero commission futures trading. I have no idea how nasty next year will be, but let's keep our fingers crossed.

Resteemed!

Ripple really did great during this time period they have really taken the blockchain thing on an implementation level only working products will sustain over the time shit coins will left far behind

I think that all the currencies have recently decreased significantly
I hope prices will rise as soon as possible

Stellar $0.2072 to $0.2450 18.2%. Not killing it but keeping up with Bitcoin. I think in these times investors need to be in coins they believe in long term. The markets will stay with the "safer" bets led by Bitcoin.

I'm telling you I don't get no respect at all - Rodney Dangerfield

and Steller ;)

Hey, @dragosroua.

To your knowledge, what is the major difference, aside from being hosted on different blockchains with different capabilities, between these Ethereum based tokens that didn't go anywhere, and the SMTs which we're all hoping will doing something? What's going to cause them to flourish and produce and not end up having similar failures?

I don't know the technical differences, or what would cause a business or an investor to value them over what's come already through Ethereum, so that's why I'm asking. There must be something different, right? Or is there a chance they can be dismissed from the very beginning because they're not technically much different than what's come before?

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There are few key differences, one of them being that - to my knowledge - SMTs won't be tradable to other pairs, but only to STEEM. This may be a drawback, because you have to convert your tokens to STEEM first if you want to sell them and you can't really showcase them on Coinmarketcap. But it can also be an advantage, because they won't be dumped as fast as it happened with some ERC20 tokens. STEEM acts like a buffer here.

As for this:

What's going to cause them to flourish and produce and not end up having similar failures?

It really depends on the execution. The underlying technology is relatively similar. It's like we're having a few startups building on top of the web technology. Some of them will build nice things, some of them will fail.

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Okay. I'm wondering if there's going to be any kind of screening process for SMT applicants. If they need to have a whitepaper that makes sense, or some decent backing. Probably not, right? Anyone who wants to set one up and has something to set it up to will probably be able to get one.

I like the idea of keeping things in STEEM. It's too bad that they need to be converted first. That's just going to add to the process, unless at that point we have enough products and services that we don't need to go beyond STEEM. Wouldn't that be nice. :)

With any luck the SMTs will be like thr ERC-20 token for STEEM. People will be able to run ICOs on STEEM just like they did with ETH last year. With a lockup of supply we will inevitably see a price increase.

We have seen how quick btc can go up and down although it remained relatively stable over the last few months.
When btc goes up it is going to drag the other coins incl steem. Lets hodl and hope for the best.
It is interesting about what you say about ripple. CEO was stating it is cleverly decentralised but i would say cleverly centralised.

Once the HF fully comes to effect and SMTs come next year am certain that will be the game changer fr steemit

Beautiful information

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wow...helpful post. steem on