The dumpening. Is MtGox to blame?

in steemit •  last year 

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Who is to blame for what is happening on the cryptocurrency markets? As a reddit user, I could see a lot of people trying to point their fingers at MtGox. If it is true, it will be the second time this Bitcoin exchange fucks up the cryptocurrency space. If you want to see what people have to say about the Dumpening, I will leave the links in my blog post on Steemit (https://www.reddit.com/r/mtgoxinsolvency/comments/82m0dl/mtgox_trustee_has_sold_some_btc_and_bch/, https://www.reddit.com/r/mtgoxinsolvency/comments/82ykgu/re_the_dumpening/ , https://www.reddit.com/r/mtgoxinsolvency/comments/835mch/what_the_fuck_is_going_on_with_the_trustee/ )

Also, it is worth mentioning that reddit user “MagicalTux” is Mark Karpeles himself, owner of failed MtGox, was against the methods that were used by bankruptcy trustee to sell bitcoins(https://www.reddit.com/r/mtgoxinsolvency/comments/82m0dl/mtgox_trustee_has_sold_some_btc_and_bch/dvb5e94/).

Let’s start from the beginning. MtGox lost 650 000 bitcoins in 2013-2014, that’s some governmental budget money in current terms. It was calculated that $473mln worth of Bitcoins were stolen by hackers.

The exchange still had ~200 000 bitcoins. Currently, it stands at 164k bitcoins. Why?

Recently, bankruptcy trustee, Nobuaki Kobayashi, sold 36k of BTC and 34k of BCC (~$407mln). Why did he do it only recently? It seems that Nobuaki Kobayashi simply thought that the price was high enough to pay off the $473 mln debt to those who were affected by the hacks. Also, it seems like the rest of bitcoins will be either sold or handed to those who were affected by the hacks proportionately. Well, another possibility is that those bitcoins will be given to Mark Karpeles, but it would rip the space time fabric with the rage of MtGox users across the globe. Still, there is an interesting article about it, definitely read it (https://www.ccn.com/mark-karpeles-will-end-taking-859-million-mt-gox-bankruptcy/).

As you can see on the right part of the slide, there are 5 instances where the trustee sold bitcoins. 2 of those instances lead to further market deterioration and because of that reddit users were very aggressively attacking trustee, blaming the market fall on him. Can it be possible that 2k of sold bitcoins on Kraken can lead to market crash from $18000 for BTC to $13000 for BTC? I don’t believe that. Do you?

I mean, look at statistics. There are about 600k bitcoins exchanges every 24h on all exchanges. Even 18k bitcoin cannot move market that dramatically. I can only agree that trustee’s actions could only slightly deteriorate market conditions, that’s all. It certainly cannot kill or significantly affect the market.

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Here I would like to tell you the real reasons Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are in downward spiral right now.
The absolute most important reason is public interest. It CRASHED. And I literally mean it. It went from 100% interest on 17th of December 2017 to current 12%. People simply don’t give a single shit about cryptocurrencies right now. Hype is gone. Now you should expect even bigger fall in crypto capitalization due to the lowest interest from people. If you want to know more about it, check out one of my last videos “Is cryptomarket dead?...”. I really worked hard on it, building a lot of graphs.

Then we have the same problem Bitcoin has always had. People simply don’t use Bitcoin enough, we went from 500k transactions at peak to current 150k transactions. We need to make Bitcoin cheap and fast ASAP.

Then, generally market is in bad conditions. It halved.

Finally, the cycle ended. Let’s wait for the next one!

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Wow man, "People simply don't give a single shit about crypto-currency right now"

Have you not considered that people don't google search: "bitcoin" every-time they want to buy bitcoin?

Like searching for : "buy bitcoin" ???

market is manipulated

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Well yeah, but by whom and for what reason?
Are all of these actors working for the same agenda?
Or are there a lot of interested parties trying to achieve different ends through these markets?
Clearly there are big whales capable of pumping and dumping markets, churning wealth out of new market-entrants... But I believe there is much more to these markets...
For one main reason, which is that the barriers to entry in these markets are remarkably low... Anybody can get in on these markets, and can do whatever they want... The regulations; of which there are very few, cannot account for the multitudes of ways people are using this technology today... And the challenge of even trying to regulate these markets is too great for any one entity to enact change, let alone steer the market in any particular direction... Everybody who's been in this space has been burned on some occasions, and succeeded in others...

Sooooooo.... Yeah.

Market is manipulated but so is everything

Hey @cryptoportfolio,
that's finally an argument on the current situation I can agree with - thanks for sharing your thought! So probably the time goes back to an little "crypto winter" - I am really looking forward to the upgrade on the Bitcoin Blockchain to the Lightning Network..

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I liked the last crypto winter

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In terms of price I can totally understand you man! But I really like the progress currently happening with all the money floating into the money ... Future will be interesting ! :)

Though amount, that trustee has dumped, is not that big, but sudden release might have triggered selling action from bots, which in turn reinforced public panic sell, which on its own continued as avalanche.

Avalanche-ElkPoint-noaa (1).png

Well, I agree that it's highly unlikely that someone selling some Bitcoin can make it crash so hard. Maybe it can affect the price a little bit, but cmon... Not like this.
It's sad that most people know only about Bitcoin and they think it's the ultimate and best crypto. Obviously, there are many greater cryptos with better technologies and way cheaper, but every crypto price basically is dependent on Bitcoin.
If Bitcoin is doing bad, everything is doing bad.

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Other technologies are only good while not at scale of Bitcoin.

There is no new money coming on the market, and cryptocurrency is not popular now that is in bear market

A few factors i believe have caused this sudden downturn..

a) Weak volume,if you watch the last few weeks ...the volume went BTC dropped increased significantly...in comparison to a weaker buying trend when it shifted from 9-10k,even weaker when it hit 11k.
Weak buying volume kills any financial market and makes it ripe for manipulation..

  1. Consumer sentiment or lack there of...in other words disinterest. I think BTC dropping to 5800 scared alot of the newbie investors that jumped on the "Lambo/unicorn" train. They never saw it coming...panicked and ran out.
  2. I agree with the assumption that selling those BTC weakened market conditions but didn't crash it....now it might have triggered bots to sell according to their algorithm (might explain the suddenly spike in trading volume when it would selloff)

Mt Gox is part of the problem...but not THE problem.