Some great thoughts. However, I think half growth scenario with some twists is quite probable. $15 STEEM with 80,000 satoshis at BTC $19K looks really possible. STEEM touched three times 60K satoshis, could not break it. Therefore, next leg is 80K which is quite touchable. From $15 STEEM to $30 will mostly depend on the SMT's success and user growth. If STEEM blockchain can bring in 10M users and some high profile SMT gets great attention, STEEM can organically rise to $30. These days hardforks, splits and competitors seem to increase brand image of the original currency such as BTC vs BCH and ZCash vs ZClassic. Therefore, a fork or copycat (e.g. MITH) is just a praise for working blockchain, STEEM.