Is climate change creating conflict?

Harald Welzer is the author of Climate Wars: Why People Will Be Killed in the 21st Century. In an interview with him he said:

“Ideology will always be a surface-level justification for conflict, but if you look deeply at the source of future conflicts, I think you’ll see a basic resource conflict at the bottom of it all.”

All over the world, scientists say they have proof that Heat waves, droughts and other severe weather events as a result of climate change are increasing the risk of wars breaking out across the world. The report, carried out by Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, states that nearly 25% of conflicts in ethnically divided countries coincided with “climatic calamities”. Also, environmentalists have warned that if temperatures rise considerably over the next century, large parts of the planet could become uninhabitable. This will result to forcing millions of people to migrate elsewhere. The effect is bound to significantly increase the risk of conflicts breaking out.

The objective of the report is to suggest that war should be added to the usual list of problems likely to be caused by global warming. Triggering factors of war might include sea level rise, crop failures, water shortages and floods. Lead researcher, Dr Carl Schleussner of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research said:

“Devastating climate-related natural disasters have a disruptive potential that seems to play out in ethnically fractionalized societies in a particularly tragic way.

He further stressed that the relationship is not linear;

“Climate disasters are not directly triggering conflict outbreak, but may enhance the risk of a conflict breaking out which is rooted in context-specific circumstances. As intuitive as this might seem, we can now show this in a scientifically sound way.”

The report stated that many African and Central Asian countries were among the most fractionalized. This invariable makes these areas potential hot spots for armed-conflict outbreak risk. Another co-writer, Dr Jonathan Donges said:

“We think that ethnic divides may serve as a predetermined conflict line when additional stressors like natural disasters kick in, making multi-ethnic countries particularly vulnerable to the effect of such disasters.”

The Syrian war
Over the past hundred years, or more precisely from 1900 to 2005, there have been six significant droughts in Syria. In addition to having relatively little overall freshwater in proportion to demands, Syria, like the region as a whole, experiences high natural hydrologic variability. The average monthly level of winter precipitation and the major rainfall season has dropped to about 30% of its normal level.
The Syrian regime’s failure to put in place economic measures to alleviate the effects of drought was a critical driver in propelling such massive mobilizations of dissent.

“Further destabilisation of Northern Africa and the Levant may have widespread effects by triggering migration flows to neighbouring countries and remote migrant destinations such as the European Union.”

Darfur conflict
The war in Darfur has been driven by climate change and environmental dilapidation. A study by the UN Environment Programme UNEP discovered the true origin of the conflict pre-dates 2003 and is to be found in failing rains and creeping desertification. It found that:
• General Rainfall has dropped by 16%-30%
• The desert in northern Sudan has advanced southwards by 60 miles over the past 40 years
• Harvests in the local staple, sorghum, could drop by 70%.
• Climate models for the region suggest a rise of Temperature of between 0.5C and 1.5C between 2030 and 2060

Battle between Herdsmen and Farmers in Nigeria
Also similar to the Darfur war, climate change has caused desertification in the northern parts of Nigeria. This has led to extended drought and an estimated 20% drop in crop yields across the rest of Nigeria. The increase in hostilities by the insurgent Boko Haram crisis has caused nomadic Fulani herdsmen to abandon their foraging grounds in the North East for the last 5 years. The resultant cause is now increasing tensions between farming communities and migrating Fulani herdsmen.

Conclusion
Genetically, Man’s nature has always been of a migratory kind. Man has always moved to better places to improve his livelihood , either as a result of human or naturally induced pressures. Self preservation is a natural human reaction. Government of countries vulnerable to climate change should start planning for Natural disasters and make strategic decisions that would benefit them in the future.

Thanks for reading.

Images from pixabay