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RE: Why I Want to Short Steem [Beyond Trading –part2. 08/23/2016]
Short term you may be right.
Steem user growth is slowing and the price is dropping rapidly.
The trading volume in STEEM is also rather low to support the current marketcap and at 20x collateral the STEEM DOLLAR capitalization will be in trouble in your price target range. It seems 100% inflation is a bit too much to make STEEM acceptable to hold for short term trading/speculating.
However Steemit is not a model that cannot be tweaked to get the balance right. Nothing a hard fork cannot solve at this stage.
I agree that it can be fixed!
The article however is not about 'the 100% inflation"...which is btw way not 100% but more like 300% right now... but even that is not the problem I am writing about. The #1 issue is: the curation rewards as they currently stand - DO not justify buying Steem (and powering up)...
There are numerous other flows in the current Steem design (all fixable imho, although most will take paradigm change in the whales and/or founders way of thinking)
I've been rummaging through everyone's accounts and looking at how their Steem Power correlates with the amount of income they make when voting. I've been looking at perhaps putting in some money and looking at return on income. I've decided not to.... simply on the 72 rule and the fact that it'll take 6 to 8 years for Steemit to be at a peak similar to Facebook - Twitter. Just by reading content and voting and making the odd post.... I could THEORETICALLY have 2.5 million Steem Power in my account....... August 2020. So your correct .......... Why bother putting money into this. I would rather speculate elsewhere.
I agree with you that curation rewards aren't a good argument to buy STEEM. But imagine there were no curation rewards whatsoever. Could there still be a reason to buy STEEM? Absolutely yes, if you believe it will increase in value. (Of course this does not mean that it necessarily will increase in value nor should be purchased.) The curation rewards are icing on the cake from an investment perspective, nothing more.
It's like a finger pointing away to the moon. Dont concentrate on the finger or you will miss all that heavenly glory. --Bruce Lee
I'm personally still learning how and if the curation rewards mean much but it's not my focus either. Reading great content and learning is, then the social aspect of more intelligent and though provoking friends than FB offers. And investment-wise I just added $25 to my meager coinbase account, so I can buy bitcoin with it, so I can buy Steem to sit on for awhile. I think that's a worthwhile investment of small amounts of money at this phase of the platform's career for sure. And (full circle now, haha) time spent curating can be used to purchase small amounts of Steem, so I guess that makes curation worthwhile as well, from that perspective alone too.
Great quote btw! Sorry to double post, I got lost in my first point and forgot to say so, haha
Why would they believe STEEM to increase in value? Do you believe so? Why?
I am an investor and I know when a good thing is here! and STEEM my friend, is it! You have to keep mind how early in the stage we(steem) are and visualize the possibilities. Don't worry about the price as of now. Personally, I just want to continue buying low until this thing really takes off and besides, I like to watch my money grow and Steem, I've noticed fast accumulation via 'interest'. Best and most fun investment I've got involved in. Steem ahead!
I agree that the curation system is not quite right. I don't believe that with higher direct monetary incentives it would help bring and highlight better quality content on steem though. The less obvious incentive is about helping to control the quality of content on steem bringing more value to the system based on content, but this alone is not enough. You may be right, steem needs to incentives buying in more, speculation is not enough.