God, thanks for keeping track of this.

Philip Tetlock did a study on TV pundits, and found that, although most them are shitty, the most famous are on average more shitty than the rest. Potentially, because the most famous have learned to summarize themselves boldly into soundbytes, while reality is least likely to be so summarizable.

If we could adopt some kind of generally accepted standard, such that if you want to try to predict the future everyone expects you to register all your predictions in a system, such that anyone who wanted to could check your accuracy, that would be awesome. Otherwise, we're just repeating the same idiotic mistakes of older media systems.