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RE: Looking for a good Bidbot mathematician
The numbers would be hard to track with the few numbers you provided. You are making assumptions on a ratio over the bid amount to the amount of bid votes. There are many times that there is More Bid then the Total Vote Value...yes people are that freaking stupid. This is why it takes work to buy bids via a bid bot unless you just accept being screwed over and over.
I'm thinking someone with access to raw data (@abh12345) might be able to pull the numbers that would be needed for this.
The numbers to figure out how much of the reward pool is going toward paid bids you would need a few data sets.
- Figure out all the paid bots, not to hard as all that matter are listed in one place.
- Total vote value for the day of Just Voting Bots.
- Total vote value for day including bid bots
- Value of reward pool for that given day
One data point that isn't a factor in the total rewards that you maybe added into your calculations is the Amount Bid Bot Owners Were Paid. This number only allows a guess as to how much voting power was used. The amount also has nothing to do with the current reward pool as it's paid for with previous rewards.
With those 4 data points I would be able to give you pretty good numbers for the amount that is being taken out by the bid bot owners/delegators.
That's not as straight forward as it may seem. There are lot's of bots that aren't listed in that one place. One had to check their turnaround first to see if that can be neglected.
Getting the total vote value is heavily distorted by "sell your vote" features of MB/smartsteem/booster/ and others. Separating payed votes from organic ones for vote sellers is close to impossible IMO. MB has an API that could provide this information, others don't.
Wasn't thinking about the smartsteem style sell your vote. That makes the numbers even worse.
All those importantsold votes are not listed on the one place. Minnowbooster and smartsteem private votes make up a LARGE % of sold votes too. Yes Taraz there is someone who can work out the numbers for you in chat.
I think it's reasonable to average this out or provide a lower bound. If you look at the bots, you actually see that 1.5 multiplier is fairly common. Even if you set the multiplier to 1.3 or something you would get something useful. As @tarazkp mentions, it's not likely to matter too much. My preliminary calculations along this route are showing similar results to what is claimed in the post. But I'm double-checking things... Also I rather expect this state of affairs since the distribution of SP is concentrated towards bid bots and whales. But I will be claiming that bid bots spread out votes, so that'll be interesting to see if I can get data for that.... I think it would be instructive to see the distribution of payments as well.
One issue I thought of is that the whales didn't always use 100% of their vote each day. So by delegating the voting power this voting weight is now used each day, every day. This alone changes the entire distribution of the voting pool.
Just an example I know someone right now that hasn't been on in over a month with over 10k SP. This SP sitting idle helps the rest of the reward pool vs if this SP was delegated to a bot.
Hmm. That's an interesting thought. Seems like this person is missing out :P
You are right. I'd say
Idle > bot delegation > self vote
In terms of freeing the reward pool for others. Of course this is probably not something we can count on.
How much made on bot delegation. Hmmm... Oh dear, it's quite similar to a self vote after all. (They get half the amount at worst case, best case they can pick up an extra 25% from curation... Even more if the bid rounds are over filled).
Ouch. I need to re evaluate my life.
Running out the door now and didn't get to reread my comment. Hopefully on first writing it makes sense...normally I take a few minutes and read it a couple times and make edits.
Yeah, assumptions are all I have when it comes to this. Essentially, I see numbers that I can't intuit some vision of and my brain shuts down. All my brain is telling me is there is a lot going to a few and not much left for the many...