Huge Loss in Whale Power: A 6+ Month View: Distribution Is Really Changing!!!! Facts On Paid Bots Too!!!!
People seem to cling to this belief that Steemit is nothing more than a place where the rich get richer, the whales just upvote themselves while not caring about the lowly red fish, paid bots are killing this place and the system needs to be changed.
This is all incorrect.
Every couple weeks I put together a report that totally negates all these assertions. Nevertheless, people still cling to these views.
Therefore, since people feel that two week comparisons, even when done over a period of 75 days, is not enough, here is a comparison from August 1, 2017. This time frame really makes the shift noticeable.
8/1/2017
The total MVests here is 336,936.
On a percentage basis:
Whales 75.44%
Orcas 14.85%
Dolphins 7.16%
Minnows 2.14%
Red Fish .01%
Inactive .39%
3/16/2018
The total MVests here is 383,224.
On a percentage basis:
Whales 61.87%
Orcas 17.86%
Dolphins 11.38%
Minnows 5.67%
Red Fish 1.34%
Inactive 1.87%
The change over that time period is as such:
Whales -6.71%
Orcas +36.78%
Dolphins +80.90%
Minnows +201.23%
Red Fish +10208%
Inactive +434.85%
8/1/2017
3/16/2018
On 8/1/2017...
Whales had 75.44% of the total SP out there....on 3/16/2018, that number is 61.87%...A DROP OF 17.99% in 6.5 months.
Whales and Orcas accounted for an astonishing 90.29%....on 3/16/2018, that number is 79.74%...A DROP OF 11.68% in 6.5 months.
If this rate continues for the Whales throughout the next 5.5 months, you will see those accounts lose over 33% of their power while the Whales/Orcas will be down 21.56%.
Here is @arcange's post from last August...
https://steemit.com/statistics/@arcange/steemit-statistics-20170801-en
So in spite of all the complaints about Whales circle voting, the use of bots, and Whales only in it for themselves, the facts prove that the Whales influence, as denoted by their percentage of SP, is dropping at a rapid rate. As I stated, if this pace keeps up, they will lose over 1/3 their influence in A YEAR. That is a huge drop.
The numbers keep proving, the more people who sign onto this blockchain and post, the more the Whales will lose influence. The reward pool is structured so that 75% of the daily payout goes to authors. Whales cannot put up enough content to keep pace with all the new posters.
Another thing is people like to point to paid voting bots as a potential ruination of STEEM.
Here is a surprise for everyone, this is a misguided accusation also.
@penguinpablo did a study on this the other day.
Approximately 1.7% of all votes are done by a paid voting service. And as you can see in the chart, the paid votes are quite in line with the total number of votes.
Now that the facts are out, does anyone really think 1.7% is a problem?
98.3% of all votes are given freely according to the numbers posted by @penguinpablo.
Here is the post on it.....
https://steemit.com/steemit/@penguinpablo/how-many-of-the-upvotes-are-done-by-paid-voting-bots
It appears that all the calls for changing the system are espousing about something that is not really a problem. The uneven distribution is leveling out as time goes by. The facts, in both the short and long term, bear this out.
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This certainly is good news, and, with the fact that the trend is strengthening, it's getting even better. Very encouraging. Thanks for tracking it.
I knew the distribution of Steem was moving into the direction of dolphins, minnows & redfish, so this was not a suprise for me. But that it's happening this quickly kinda was! I think that is really good news for this platform!
But the second part in your post amazes me, only 1,7% of the votes is done through bots?? Are you 100% certain of this statistic? The impression I have at the moment is completely different, but then again, what knowledge or analysis did I do except just looking the trending page...
I'd like to know, actually, how big is the percentage of the daily rewards appearing on the trending page? Or, what percentage of post rewards does never appear on the trending page?
I didnt do the analysis, that was @penguinpablo but his work tends to be spot on so I have no reason to doubt it.
I agree with you that the impression about a lot of things can be different. While you are not surprised about the distribution change, at least as a trend, many are. They believe the the rich are getting richer.
The final pieces you ask about, I do not know if those can be run. I would guess they couldnt since the analysis is of the blockchain and trending page is a Steemit feature.
Nevertheless, I take this all as good news that, in spite of impressions, there are some major things on Steem that are working.
Allright! I'm gonna check out that @penguinpablo post. Interesting stuff!
Hmm, I' ve just read two posts by @penguinpablo:
How come the bots are taking $22,442.70 out of the reward pool per day, but there's about $100,000.00 invested in those bots daily? It doesn't make sense to me that Steemians would structurally invest in things that have a huge negative ROI... What am I missing?
The "only 1.7% of the votes is done by bots" seems unweighted. I don't think a 100% vote from someone with 15SP and someone with 150.000SP are the same thing...
Now I remember why I don't follow @penguinpablo anymore, usually after reading his posts, I have more questions than answers...
I cant speak for the research, but to the point of a 15 SP very 150SP is taken into account. The 1.7% is using the total number. You are right to point out there the weight is not the same. So while the total number might be low, when you look at the actually voting weight, it could have a much greater impact.
you did speak for the research when you posted this and used it to paint a picture of the reality of upvote bots. But, you're missing a lot of information in your assessment.
The bot percentage has to be higher than 1.7%. I thought there were some discrepancies in PP’s post that were pointed out by some and that he admitted were question marks. Going from memory here and want to be wrong. All that aside, another awesome post Taskmaster!
How is it awesome, when it's completely irrelevant, of course the tide is shifting but unless you can get all 40k new users that signed up last week to vote together (at 1/3 of a cent each = about $120 TOTAL) you can't even begin to make a dent in some of those bots.
A total surprise on the number by paid bots. Not a problem indeed!
Thanks for posting that information. It's important for the good long-term health of Steemit to have power distributed more broadly among the community, not just the whales. Steemit should benefit all its members, not just those at the very top.
I agree @gtrplayer. The key for a currency is the distribution of it.
It is common for a newer currency to have it in the hands of a few early adopters. However, over time, it needs to spread out. This is what we are seeing with STEEM.
With more people signing up, we should see this trend better.
I do expect that the whales will loose more power in the coming weeks. Lots of red fishes, minnows and dolphins will be bying Steem with these low prices, which will have an impact on the voting powers of the whales!
That is very true @fullcoverbetting.
If the price remains low, there will be some powering up to enhance their accounts. That will help a great deal.
Another factor is fixing the sign up. We were told that it would be about a month before we saw an effect....if we see that in the next couple weeks, an influx of people could really cause a shift over the next few months.
Indeed 5 days after each other with more than 2K new subscribers. Always a good sign.
To bad, we also have maybe more drop outs than newcomers.
But as long as people do think that Steemit is a quick rich scheme, they will drop out.
As soon as they see it as a new social media platform, where the money part is more a nice side effect than the main reason we will be fine!
I agree completely. I do not like the idea of promoting this site, marketing it, based upon the money making aspects of things. I think those on YouTube and Facebook are doing a disservice to the blockchain.
We need to promote censorship free, decentralization, and a lack of data mining...plus we can throw in unhackable.
These are things that we need to tout...they are concepts that are on people's minds.
The “drop outs” could just be taking a break. When steem is back up, they will be back too.
It’s a out building communities, if there are people reading and commenting on your work, often, you are more likely to stay - or want to come back.
I know I'll be buying in for sure, because these prices are way too good to pas up!
Upvoted.
Thank you for this post. I had been struggling to find a clear overview of the situation with regards to whales and bots. Good to see the distribution changing. I am confident the steemit platform will continue to develop as it was intended to do so. We are still so early in its' development.
Onward and upward we go!
People aren’t used to abundance systems that work.
We have to give them time to catch up. All of this fear will soon turn to poetry of our project continues the way we want it to.
This is very true @metzli.
They are schooled in the world of scarcity meaning that they are going to allow fear, anger, and competition take over.
In a world of abundance, all that goes away....yet most still need to cling onto the belief there isnt enough.
In game theory, there are games of cooperation and games of competition, and it will be interesting to see which side steem users gravitate to. In your opinion @taskmaster4450 is the game of steem purely a game of cooperation?
The huge spike in crypto woke a lot of people up to it. Now that the prices are coming back down people can afford to buy it. I feel like downswings and upswings are an important part of blockchain decentralization.
I always enjoy reading your posts because they are often loaded with fresh knowledge and wisdom. There is no doubt that the concentration of Steem Power is gradually becoming decentralized as the times wear on.
As for the use of bid bots, I share your views that bots have great advantages for those who understand how it works.
I think this is great news. I've been following in ups of seeing the numbers keep moving in this direction. I haven't been here for that long but I've always said we do not need to change the system because it will continue changing itself based on it's own growth and how we as users respond to the content. Thank you for the work you do here.