I think penguinpablo covers that and so even a 'no increase' in powerdown totals would be a very good sign.

Yep. the other thing that is going to have an impact is that bidbots users have been powering down to get liquids to buy, and the bidbots have been distributing liquids to delegators, which makes it easier to sell. With CR, people actually have to powerdown, not take it from their liquid wallet.