Have we hit bottom?

I believe that for most people, experiencing rock bottom is a driving force in recovery as from that point, there is nowhere left to fall to but, there is a firm position to spring from. As some might say, the only way is up. This seems to also be a trend in the markets where the bottom is a point where there are no longer sellers willing to sell below the price which means, if people want to buy, they are going to have to buy above the current price which will inevitably drive the volume upwards if people see the value in buying-in.

Last night, @paulag posted an analysis on the steem churn rates and noted that they are at the lowest they have been all year, 35% with the Q1 churn over 100%. This means ore people went inactive than signed up. @paulag mentioned that the drop is due to the decrease in signups (which is due to price) but, I also have another supporting theory which I mentioned to her in the comments section. I think we are approaching bottom.

Many people have noted that their feeds are much slower as posts are trickling in from the people they follow and note that this is a sign of the system failing to retain users. I actually see this as a good thing and perhaps will even go as far as saying it is a success of sorts. This price grinder has done a pretty efficient job of separating the chaff from the wheat. What we have now is a core, a user base we can build from. No, not all problems are sorted.

However, if we look at Steem users as a marketplace of buy and sell with those who are being churned as sellers, who is left now at the care are the holders, those who despite the price are not willing to sell their position on the platform. They are the Rock bottom, the platforms foundation that will provide the stability to spring from and the support for new users coming in, to build upon.

There will still however be a long churn but hopefully it will decrease over time because with each wave of new users who come in, there will be some who will realise the potential in making their home and work to become part of the core, part of the foundation. In time, what happens is that the core reaches a critical mass point where the bandwagon effect takes place and people join and stay because they see other people joining and staying.

As this is slowly happening, more and more reasons to join and stay will continue to develop making their decision a good decision as each new wave of core users made become adopters before change, making them feel instrumental in the process, which they are. Not only does the core user base support the new users, the new support the core by driving demand for the resources they hold, namely Steem Power and Steem in general. It becomes a healthier economy where each layer has movement both up and down through the layers of onboarding sediment.

If people's feeds are quite in diversity, many wil find that the core users are actually very, very active as they are not only posting more, but using this time to investigate aspects of the platform they may not know well or are in development now. From the market position, they are gathering and from the Steem perspective, this is both in the currency and the growth of an account, the development of relationships and of course, the collection of knowledge.

Perhaps this is the real reason why @ned tags #gathering in his posts.

What is left here at the moment are the dedicated to the future and even though there are many people suffering, you will find that in this core there is a type of knowing calm, a position that no matter what price is currently doing, the long game is looking good. Personally, I don't think I have ever been so bullish about the Steem future as the more I learn and perspectives I see, there is so much potential in the platform and so many opportunities in the pipeline that I believe we have a very good chance of challenging not only the top of the cryptosphere but, also various traditional areas also.

Many people coming in now believe that they are late and it isn't worth it but, this is actually not the case if you look at the bandwagon effect as, it has happened yet. Opportunity as an early adopter is essentially guaranteed until the point the flood gates open and the masses pour in. Having a position on Steem before that critical mass turning point means that those who flood in become a multitude of new opportunities into the future, new markets, new businesses, new customers.

My personal position is to keep building myself into the core community of the foundation and helping others cement themselves into position too. We need not destroy each other in this process if we consider that when the time comes and people want on the bandwagon, there is the potential for so much value that those who did the early work are going to benefit enormously.

The loss of people through the churn allows for the cream to rise to the top, the loss of people who are only fair weather traders gives space for the scrappers to gather at the bottoms and collect and build their investments for the future. There is always going to be loss and inactivity at all levels because it isn't easy to keep the motivation when prices fall or do not raise significantly because the feeling creeps in that things are digressing or, moving sideways.

However, this is not true, things are improving, developments are being made and there is a slowly growing core community of people dedicated and committed to making this place better for all of those to come. I am confident that the fair weather people will be back at the next price rise, further behind those that stayed and worked in the mud. And the naysayers lost to the difficulty will return riding with the masses on the bandwagon lamenting what they gave up because of shortsightedness or an inability to do the work before the reward. The churn is not only a normal part of business, it is a necessary part to find those worthy and deserving to support.

We may not be at bottom yet but, we are approaching it and, the core aren't selling, they are buying what they can from those who can't survive the falls.

Taraz
[ a Steem original ]