RE: STEEM Price Analysis – December 12, 2016
so there will more than double the STEEM that will become liquid this week than there was last week
There is also twice more buy support than before the fork. We were around 80 BTC and now we are consistently around 160 BTC with some peak even today at 200 BTC.
The steem market is different than others in that many traders especially buyers have a wait and see approach ( due to the immaturity of the market and general lack of confidence( ie whales dumping), which is why the buy order book fills up very rapidly as soon as there is some slight indication that the trend may reverse and it's why we see the buy support increase in unforeseen manners even on a downtrend.
I don't necessarily agree that we should go lower,as you said it will depend how whales sell their steem and if they do so over multiple days or not. I think that there is so much talk of a crash on tuesday that the whales actually have an opportunity to create a pump by not selling immediately. Whales will dictate the market for at least the next couple months, traders will be more confident then.
the price can crash without whales selling, as there are enough regular users who collectively hold enough steem to drive the price very low
Regular users have no incentives to sell at those prices, so I doubt there are many as you suggest.
their incentive is they got the steem free from steem power inflation and blogging, it's free bitcoin
The only people who benefited from the steem inflation are people who bought around $ 0.1, a couple weeks ago and powered up ( by definition won't dump These users who perfectly timed the bottom and already want to sell their powered up steem are a tiny minority, they accumulated steem for only a short period of time anyway and powered up less than 3 weeks ago.
Steem that are awarded daily and instantly available to cash out from blogging represent a ridiculously low amount compared to what a whale can dump on the market.
I think you are trying to convince yourself that the price is going lower. I'm sorry but without the help of the whales it ain't gonna happen.
steem to 5 cents within 5 days :)