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RE: Justin says Steemit is migrating to Tron: Time to Panic or Things will be OK for Now?
Voting is one thing people can do but certainly not the only thing. In this instance I don't expect any amount of voting to make a significant difference to the fact that 37.5% is an enormous and dominant share of stake.
To be clear, this risk always existed on Steem in the form of a dominant share of concentrated stake owned by a corporation. Now we are seeing some of the further consequences to the risk that many people were willing to overlook for four years.
How does that math work out? Please enlighten me. How does a single entity with 37.5% of stake install a supermajority of its own witnesses who do its bidding?
Sure. The thing is that a lot of people have been hoping that the stake distribution would decentralize sufficiently before that risk is realized.
But realistically you are not going to get all of the rest of the non-voting stake to participate, so even if you could possibly get enough to participate such that 37.5% is strictly below 50%, it would not be 20% that needs to peel off but maybe a few percent at best.
Not to try would demonstrate a high degree of negligence.
Now you're making assumptions. But thank you for detailing them.
In the short term, nothing will change. According to Steemit, Inc employees, the Tron Foundation will continue to fund ongoing development at Steemit, Inc. The Steem blockchain is not going to get axed any time soon. It would take a lot of work to replicate the functionalities of the Steem blockchain in smart contracts on the Tron blockchain.
In the medium to long term, it seems that Justin Sun's plans are open. It is not unusual in the tech sector for companies to acquire other companies without knowing exactly what they're going to do with them. The Tron foundation has acquired Steemit because they have some kind of a rudimentary vision of what it might be useful for. Those plans will take shape as we go along in the next year or so. There are no clear cut plans to shut down the chain and set up shop on Tron any time soon.
When I listened to the Witness Forum yesterday, it seems that most witnesses are on board with the idea of having some sort of mitigations in place in case a hostile takeover would take place. I think those mitigations including, in my view, getting every stakeholder to use all of their witness votes, working with exchanges etc. are very important because they signal to the Tron foundation that his community values its independent existence despite being more than willing to build bridges and co-operate fruitfully with the Tron foundation.
Total mental capitulation at this stage is worst imaginable course of action.
I certainly agree with encouraging people to use more witness votes. It can't hurt. My position is only that this should be encouraged while also maintaining a realistic understanding of its likely effectiveness.
For a start (before any of the assumptions I described even matter), you need to raise the roughly 50 million SP that is actively voting for witnesses up to at least 75 million before the Tron-owned stake is not an absolute unilateral majority. That's a tall order, but, again, perfectly fine to encourage.
No one I know is in favor of capitulation, and certainly not me.
Your numbers are sobering and helpful because they reveal the difficulty of what should be done.