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RE: Steem Arbitrage: Flaw Or Nothing For Concern...?

in #steem8 years ago (edited)

So i wanted to give everyone a quick update.

Basically, if you read the discussion itt, youll see that theres one primary disagreement between me and the people who think this is "incoherent nonsense" They believe a buy order on the internal market will offset a sell order on the external markets to determine price. I do not.

It occurred to me that there is a relatively simple way to test this theory. Because we really don't have to wait for an arbitrage opportunity to see if this works. Its just as easy to run money through the system (sell steem on the external market and buy it on the internal) and see what happens. With out the existence of an arbitrtage as a constraint, you could continue doing this indefinitely. You'd lose a little bit of money, but whats a little money in the name of science.

So heres what im going to do. Im picking up $5 or $10K worth of steem tonight, depending on how much BTC i have left over after paying out all my clients. Im going to set up a little script to cycle it through the exchanges super quick (and nby set up a little script, i mean pay someone to set up a little script), and start cycling it saturday.

NOw there are two potential things that could happen.

1.I could be right, in which case it will draw the value of steem down. I will consider my point proved if i can reduce the value of steem 40% in one night.

2.I could be wrong, in which case nothing will happen, except ill llose out on a bunch of trading fees.

I suppose we'll see. Science is fun i feel like mr. wizard. here is a seeded hash of the exact time and account im using (to prevent cherry picking)107e73fa614bdca40292469a0109c0f6f74836ea8c1fe9b20fadd26107a40004 I am not revealing the exact time or account im using before the fact, because i don't want to leave myself vulnerable to having the trading exploited on either market.

I'll post my results on saturday or early sunday after the expirement is finished.

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