Let's not kid ourselves - Facebook is never launching a cryptocurrency
Mark Zuckerberg mentioned decentralization and cryptocurrency in his New Year's resolutions and now most of the crypto world is cheering about the possibility of a Facebook launching their own cryptocurrency. Let's be real - that's not happening anytime soon and if it ever happens it will be a Hail Marry to save a company in trouble. But Facebook is far from a company in trouble yet and the steem blockchain is a very long way away for even putting the smallest of chinks in Facebook's armor right now.
My short answer why we are not going to see a Facebook cryptocurrency or any blockchain integration is because it contradicts both their corporate DNA and their interests. Let me try to explain why I think so.
Let's look at what the centralization expert said as part of his New Year's resolutions:
Mark Zuckerber might be saying a lot of things, but we'd be much better off looking at his actions and the way his publicly traded company operates. He's been babbling on about all kinds of values and benefits for humanity that Facebook are supposedly going to provide, but if you look at what they are doing, you'll see an organization highly optimized for profit above anything else. That's what publicly traded corporations have to be anyway.
Facebook are all about centralization
Facebook have been doing this for years and centralization is probably one of the most crucial chromosomes in their corporate DNA. Let's think about how they are currently making their money - they are selling highly targeted and data-driven access to their users. For that to work, the company needs to gather and guard as much data about us as possible. And while Zuck has been talking about freedom, his company has been working hard to make sure people are as addicted and locked into Facebook as possible. They have been aggressively buying companies to make sure nobody eats into that and that they can gather and store as much data about us while maximizing the time we spend on their privately controlled platform. They are working diligently on centralization with them controlling as much as possible and giving up to others as little as possible.
And that's a really profitable business model for them. I mean really profitable. They have so much data about us and we spend so much time on their services that businesses are ready to pay top dollar for targeted access to the right people. Every business on the planet that is looking for clients (which is generally speaking every business on the planet) is not only a potential, but a relatively likely advertiser on Facebook. So something like a blockchain as a core part of Facebook is unthinkable as it will only give away at least part of the product they are selling for free as it will surely contain valuable data. It makes zero sense for them to get involved in something like this, even if it is just a stunt to score reputation points. They want all their data on their own servers so they can charge money for partial functional access.
Facebook is ruled by their bottom line, not Mark
Additionally, let's not forget that Facebook is not just Mark Zuckerberg, it's a publicly traded corporation that has to answer to their shareholders and that needs to protect their shareholders' interests. Launching any type of token, including a centralized one is likely to allow for value to be siphoned out of their platform and into external private pockets in one way or another. And we've seen how Facebook have handled opportunities for people to get value out of their platform - they work hard to stomp it out. Years ago Facebook pages offered a great opportunity for businesses and individuals to build an audience. Access to that audience through page posts was indeed a magnetizable asset. On one hand that was a good thing for Facebook because it was attracting businesses and getting them used to the platform, but on the other hand it was the company leaking value to others for free. But as soon as everybody in the world learned that they are the best advertising platform out there, they no longer needed to do that and Facebook pages started getting the short end of the stick more and more. The trend is clear and deliberate. Facebook don't want you to be making money on their platform unless you are paying them top dollar for it.
Any reward they allow to go to their users is reward that is going to be taken out of their bottom line. And their bottom line will not like that.
It's not the Facebook way...
Even the most centralized and superficial Facebook token seems quite unlikely to me. What they like as a company is things they can A/B test and optimize for maximum user retention and addiction. This means that they are implementing changes gradually and at different times at different locations. Look at Facebook around the world and you are not going to see the exact same features as there are all kinds of small and large features constantly tested all over the place with segments of their userbase. It's a company that has been optimizing itself for a few specific metrics for so long that this has become one of the most deeply ingrained things in their company culture. It's so strong that even the CEO wouldn't really be able to go against it on most occasions.
Implementing a virtual currency is not something you can really do following that testing, iteration and optimization model. So it would be viewed as a big risk. And big risks are usually taken only in dire situations. While Facebook is thriving, they are not going to take a risk like that for something that doesn't really go along with their monetization model. That's why I think that if they ever went for something like this, it would be as a Hail Mary to try and save them when they are on the brink of fatal failure. And no matter what the Steem overly optimistic enthusiast are telling you about Facebook, the company is as healthy as it's ever been and is making a ton of money and will keep doing so for the foreseeable future.
Those are my two cents on the matter, please let me know why you think I'm wrong and where my logic breaks down :)
I decided to write this post after reading and commenting on this post by @dragosroua so it might slightly resemble my comment there.
very well put! Thank you!
For me, facebook became useless. It may be not smart as I could post my steemit articles there. But doing even that I see no benefit.
I neglected facebook in the last two years more and more. Once an enthusiastic user I became lame and uninterested. I mostly just stayed for some few other users and their unique postings. Meanwhile the befriending requests piled up and I stopped even looking who wanted to be a friend.
Actually, when I compare steemit to facebook I never came anything close to what I have accomplished here on the platform. And I do not talk only about money. It is a very very nice concept but what mostly impresses me is that I thought I would deliver quality content on facebook and actually was far away from that. I even did not realize fully that my engagement during the years got more and more superficial and my own voice developed into something what only posted stuff from other people cause nobody seemed to be interested in single users postings any more.
Though I deplore the fact that some really interesting people I won't get in touch any longer.
Facebook might stay healthy for some more time. In the long run it won't survive because "cryptos" will take over. My son is 13 and I never allowed him to open a facebook account. He now is following what I do on steemit and I realize that I am more willing to share knowledge with him about this platform. A teenager generation without facebook maybe is rising. None of the teens I know so far is into it. But this is only my little micro kosmos.
Maybe I should have mentioned that in the post, but I actually do not have a personal Facebook account. Just a puppet account with my dog's avatar and name that my girlfriend made for him that I use whenever I need to.
If you have a following or friends circle there, those are all people whom you could be bringing here. That's not a small thing and could be of benefit of both you and them.
Steem(it) is much more about the people on it than Facebook. Facebook is mainly about Facebook and the people are just the product to sell to advertisers.
Facebook is extremely adaptive in a way that we haven't really seen before them. It's truly a data-driven company that is not afraid to evolve. Cryptos in general serve a very different purpose from Facebook and we can view steem as one of the few true competitors. Facebook has a truly global reach that they look after well. Nothing is ethernal, but it's actually a company that has a lot of chance to keep being successful for a very long time. They have done a lot of forward-thinking acquisitions, so they world needs to start changing much faster than it is now for them to start falling behind. But we'll see about that in a few decades.
It's not. Especially if you look at it globally as there are many regions where Facebook is not only booming, it's the only social network with a real foothold. Also, many teens might not be on Facebook, but most are on Instagram. But that's owned by Facebook, too.
interesting, so you never were an active user on facebook. Which social network were you into?
true- but since I wasn't active for quite a while, they would not follow me to steemit. It would be a lot of work just to talk and convince people I am not in regular contact with. I prefer to do that face to face with people I already know much more. :)
I am not sure if it takes decades for technology and new possibilities are rising fast. But I am not someone who could predict that and I do not follow the changes facebook applies other than I noticed in the last years that it changed for the bad (from my subjective perspective - also because I was an early user).
For the next generation it probably is wishful thinking. Nevertheless my son won't be part of connecting through facebook. Role models are working quite well within families:)) Also instagram is only a term, never used it and even don't really know what it is. Is it for publishing photographs?
LOL. You see, you are talking to a "dinosaur" who witnessed a time before Internet and grew up with good old mechanic cable telephones and later on with noisy modems.
None really. I was never into that. Interestingly enough, I've spent some time in a small company that had to do a lot with social media. I might have spent some time on mIRC and a few forums back in the day, but that's it. Maybe it's the rewards speaking, but the steem blockchain is the first one I enjoy that much.
The world is changing faster and faster and that's driven by technology. I just think Facebook have the resources, drive and foresight to keep up with for at least a decade. Most of their acquisitions are for the future and they are developing a lot of forward facing technology with their long-term future in mind.
It's an app for sharing photos (and images). It's a separate social network from Facebook but they purchased them a few years ago for a billion dollars (which seems like a real bargain today).
Why does that sound so familiar to me :P