Steem's price action and future: Look again at the all time high vs low to understand it

After the launch of Steem, it went up in CMC ranking as high as 3rd. It was also trading at $4.34 in July 2016 when BTC was less than $1K and LTC was less than $4.

Then Steem had a debacle in price at Q1, 2017. It went down to 7 cents. That is almost 98% drop from the peak.

Then Steem rode the overall crypto bull run of 2017 and went up to $8.5 in January, 2018. It is a sheer rise of 12100% from its low of early 2017.

Again it dropped another 98% from the peak of $8.5 in December, 2018 to 22 cents. This time it actually break its low against BTC at 0.000055.

If the short history of Steem's price action is any indication, then it can rise another 10000% in next bull run to reach $20 and from there can fall back 98% to reach 40 cents again and again.

This kind of price actions attract of lots of speculators both savvy ones and newbies. The newbies and skittish Steem traders enter the market with lots of enthusiasm during the short recovery from 21 to 55 cents and are now jumping out the ship during the dump from 55 to 33 cents.

They will buy Steem back at $1, $2, $4, even as high as $8. But they are too afraid to enter now. That is how money are made. Very few savvy traders will make lots of money by riding this bear and bull. But a large number of skittish traders will lose lots of money during this up and down.

However, is Steem a better blockchain when price was $4.35 or $8.5. Or, Steem is a worse blockchain when its price was 7 cents or 21 cents.

Nope, period.

In fact, Steem is ever growing blockchain that is getting better everyday. Total number of accounts, DApps, Steem based tokens etc. are increasing everyday.

Ideally we would like to see Steem price would start at 7 cents, reach $2 now and $8 in next year. But in the area of trading paradigm of new assets, there is no such rule. The price discovery is a wild-wild-west.

As wannbe be savvy investors we may only buy in each deeps to buy more Steem if we can afford. And, we can earn more through blogging, curation, delegations, even trading (if we are good at).

For me personally, I don't like trading. I can increase my fiat value by 100% by trading intensively but Steem's price can rise 10000% in a year too. For me buying at low and earning through passive actions rather than active trading is the best policy.

I have mined, traded and bought 5000 LTC when its was less than $4. I have lost them all in aggressive trading. For me, trading is no-no in this very volatile and sometimes, irrational market. If I would kept my 3000 LTC that I bought and mined (i.e. also, I have gained 2000 LTC at some period of time by aggressive trading) and left passive during all these period, at current value I would have $350K and at peak value, I would have been a millionaire.

Steem will reach a high floor price say, $2 or $5 at some time in future. I am looking forward to that time. Since my current buying average for Steem is around 70 cents, I would keep buying at dips to make them lower. I have personal goal to make 100K steem in 2019 if Steem price stays below 40 cents. This kind of severe price actions are also opportunities for me to make my position stronger.

Disclaimer: This opinion is not a financial advice, it my personal perspective and opinion. Please seek professionals for financial decisions.

Image sources: Most images are open sourced (e.g. Pixabay, Wikimedia etc.) with Creative common license. Some images are used with due courtesy to respected owners.

Thanks for reading.
@riseofth
Cryptominer since 2013, occasional trader and tech blogger