History of Bitcoin price actions from my observation since March 2013 and what can happen next to BTC and STEEM?

When I first came to know about Bitcoin, it was March, 2013. BTC have just began its one of its biggest bull run. When I tried to buy BTC, it was around $30, I could not. However, I was able to buy BTC as low as $75 in 2013. It looks like I am an early mover, however, my overall cryptocurrency is not as rosy as it supposed to be.

Whatever, my personal luck or effort was, I was lucky to see several boom and bust in my short crypto journey of more than 5 years.

In April 7th 2013 BTC saw its first big bull run. It reached $255 at peak and crashed to $50 same day. The cause was frequent outage of service in the notorious MtGox. It recovered to around $100 but touch a low of $60 in few month (30th June, 2014) later.

BTC dropped to 4-5X from its peak.

Next bull run and at the peak happened after 7 months on 24th November, 2014 when BTC touched $1240 at MtGox. It is 4-5X from its previous peak of $255.

After that BTC reached as low as $152 on 11th January, 2015. It took BTC almost a year and two months to reach its low. And low is again 8X from its peak.

BTC recovered to $1100 in 1st January of 2017. It took BTC almost two years and two months to reach its previous peak.

However, it took another year for BTC to break all time high at 10th December, 2017. The whole 2017 was a bull run for BTC. It rose 17X from its previous peak of $1200 in three years.

Now BTC touched at the low of $5780 yesterday (23rd June, 2018). It may not be the lowest one for now but we are down almost 3.5X.

Image Source

Now the question is how low BTC can go. If it repeats the 8X from January, 2015 than it should reach $2500. It seems very unlikely considering the progress overall blockchain market has made in 2017 and Q1, Q2 of 2018.

However, it reaches another low compared to November, 2014 of 4X, then BTC may reach around $5K at the low which is pretty close to current low of $5780.

However, how much it will take to recover: 7 months or 2 years 2 months, it has to be seen.

Bitcoin block rewards will be halved in May, 2020 in another 2 years. Will BTC take another two years to break its all time high ($20K), which also looks very unlikely considering wallstreet and major tech companies interest in blockchain.

Therefore, it looks like we will reach BTC's all time high at the end of 2018 to May, 2020. If we play average then Q2/Q3 of 2019 would be safe bet for BTC to reach all time high.

Hopefully, hivemind, velocity hardfork, automatic signup and finally, SMT will be released by end of 2018. We may see a moderate success with SMTs in the first half of 2019. Therefore, STEEM's all time high can reach at the same time- Q2/Q3 of 2019. Will STEEM sees same rise as from March 2017 to January 2018 (8c- $8)? It is very unlikely. Will STEEM rise from today's mere $1.5 to $30 in mid 2019, in total 20X gain? Very likely, but time will tell us.

Disclaimer: This opinion is not a financial advice, it my personal perspective and opinion. Please seek professionals for financial decisions.

Image sources: Most images are open sourced (e.g. Pixabay, Wikimedia etc.) with Creative common license. Some images are used with due courtesy to respected owners.

Thanks for reading.
@riseofth
Cryptominer since 2013, occasional trader and tech blogger