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RE: Steemit New Motto: Earn Lots Of Money Launching Personal Attacks So We All Can Laugh At Others!!!!! It Is A Sure Winner

in #steem7 years ago

To be clear, I'm not part of the group that is downvoting/mocking haejin. I'm just speculating why they might be doing it. If the guy really is a scammer, then I find it hard to feel sorry for a scammer being mocked.

Regarding TA more broadly, it's all a "scam" because it relies on a self-fulfilling prophecy to work. The only reason support lines (to name probably the most common analysis) work is because of the conditioning of the market participants to accept it as a valid method. It's a case of the tail wagging the dog, not the other way around. Now with more 'out there' analysis like haejin seems to be doing, the tail is going to be smaller, so it will be harder to wag the dog with it. But he does seem to have a lot of followers. He might very well be affecting the market with his proclamations. I don't know. Someone would have to look into the stats and numbers involved. One possibility is that his bizarre metrics are in fact a higher order abstraction of lower level conditioned behaviours that the more simpler metrics focus on. So in essence he might actually be successfully predicting how much and when the tail wags the dog. In which case, he's onto a good thing and if it makes his followers money, then who are we (collective) to say he can't get that much reward out of the reward pool? Unless he's using multiple accounts and bots etc to push his posts up into the trending pages.

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Thank you @revo and I apologize to you for grouping you in there. That was presumptuous of me.

And I appreciate the explanation of your conclusion on TA. At least you have thought it out.

You call it a self fulfilling prophecy yet it could be simply a metric that monitors human behavior. Sure it is forward looking which is not exact, but then again nothing is. When a company grows at 5% a year for a decade and their next year's projections are for 5% growth, is that a self-fullfilling prophecy? Is that a scam to?

And let us go one step further, you mention support lines. Even if it is self-fulfilling, which in this era of computerized trading could be more likely, isnt the fact that it is forecasting, with reasonable accuracy, where the line is make it not a scam. I mean does not using TA mean that the price action is going to change? If millions of traders and their computers around the world believe a stock price is going to stop and reverse at $X, doesnt the fact that it close to said point fairly regularly add legitimacy to it.

And finally, using your logic, then all forecasting, projecting, charting, and goal setting in business or life is a scam because whenever a person or a group of people set quantify behavior either graphically or numerically, there is a degree of self-fulfilling prophecy?

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