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RE: What's Happening With The Steem Price? Why? And What's Next?
A very good article. Could I ask why you feel that 1$ is no longer overpriced? Is it more than just a gut feeling? Is there a similar coin or concept out there that out there that one can compare it to?
It's undoubtedly extremely difficult to predict what the actual worth of STEEM will be in a few months. I completely agree that the price will recover, but I'm having a difficult time trying to predict when...
I can only say it's gut feeling. Furthermore it's hard to compare to other coins/social networks. It's superior to Bitcoin and the other altcoins because it's multidimensional (social network + cryptocurrency + blockchain information records combined).
One metric I watch is the total valuation per user. At time of writing Market Cap = $127 million with 75530 accounts (Sources: Coinmarketcap and Steemd ). That makes every user worth $1681.
Facebook's similar metric is $353 billion, with 1.6 billion members = ~$220 per member.
Steemit's valuation per user is about 8x higher than Facebook's.
However Facebook is a very mature social network with little room for growth. Whereas Steemit could grow 1000x and still only have a minor fraction of the world's population using it.
On the other hand Steemit could collapse and the momentum could grind to a halt.
Like I said - the only people who can accurately predict these things are lying or very very rich. My gut feeling however is that the Steem price will fall a bit further before recovering.
Gut feelings and intuition are good to go by, since they're usually based on your experience.
I really like the metric you chose, but to me it actually looks like STEEM is still overpriced - It seems a bit odd that STEEM users are "worth" that much more than facebook users. Granted, I think that there's a huge difference in the content quality between the sites, but that number still seems pretty high to me.
It seems like the two ways to change that number are either for STEEM to lose value, or for more members to join (which might cause the price to recover). I expect the immediate answer to be the former, but either way I'll be watching closely.
Yes, that's fair. What I expect is a lot of volatility. If the price falls too far I think I'll buy back in with what I've cashed out. If grows too fast I'll cash out some more. At the moment I don't really want to sell the Steem I'm powering down.
are you powering down right now?? seems like a bad idea at this price no? besides if everybody here with an account decides they dont believe in the recovery this boat sinks !! the best thing is to be more active, to post , curate to connect others into this dream of rewarded free speech !! Time to put all our hands to the pumps of this machine which floats to me in the right direction for a brighter future globally speaking.
Sounds like a good plan.