RE: Most promoted posts aren't profitable
Another thing to take in consideration is of those who "won" are people who maybe would have gone huge either way. see jest promoted, fyrstikken and a lot of "names" [ timsaid ].
People that have whale support are skewing the stats and even they can't skew enough for the truth to be seen by all.
It won't work, EVER, at 50$/promo.
Why?
Simple, when you promote for 3$ you are promoting to me, to you, to ppl that have this kind of upvote power --3-10cents. you need 20 of us ot be profitable.
When you promoto 30$+ [ not to mention 100$ ] You are promoting to WHALES, period.
So promotion at the current price is a GameOfWhales, when it was supposed to be a gameofDolphins.
Sad but expected as everything with Steemit, it all goes back to the whales.
I still think it could change. Those who would probably "win" anyway might stop or at least pay less as the novelty wears off.
I think the biggest effect will come from dolphins and minnows promoting for less, which will drive down the upper-value required by the "big-shots".
There is of course the chance that the "big-shots" won't adjust and the upper value remains, effectively pricing out dolphins and especially minnows. I think this was your point, and I'm worried too.
Your argument fails if whales look at the promoted page and decide to upvote stuff there, which does happen.
I do not think my argument fails, i'm sure you and other whales do look at that and sometimes upvote, but it's still a price that you pay for the eyeballs of 5-10 people who can upvote 100$+. It just doesn't look ok to me that way.
But agree to disagree :D