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RE: Who are real winners on Steem platform?
I've noticed that the curator posts are low - but they can be beneficial if the spinning wheel hits just right. I delegated all my witness votes to one guy (witness himself I think) because I liked his posts and he seemed honest. If a whale posts and is engaging with Steemians, I think that increases the popularity of Steemit. Too bad more whales do not get it.
I'll try posting about the upvote and curator vs author rewards. I need to completely digest this entire post of yours first.
I think curation reward does not matter much because one can not get much curation reward if his SP is low. Users having great SP can earn handsome curation reward. Hence, SP matters a lot. That's why minnows should understand that rushing towards trending posts cannot benefit them. Instead of it they should help each other and make each other successful.
You can see the posts of @jga (links are available in his comment) in which he made clear how the system of curation reward works.