Moonsteem - Are there any math geniuses in the building?
Normally i don't play gambling games but this game Moonsteem is really fun. And i think it's possible to beat the game but i'm not a math geek or something like that so it's just my common sense. Hear me out, these are the settings:
I'm doing this strategy on Moonsteem where i scale up my bet with a factor of 2 every time i'm wrong. I begin with 1 steemies and can go to max 7000 steemies per bet (the casino only allows that much). So the first bet i put in 1, then 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, 512, 1024, 2048, 4096 this is where i have to stop. So that means i can be wrong 12 times in a single row, and the 13th time i'm wrong i lose.
We know that the house has an edge of 2%, that means when i make bets with a multiplier of 2 there is 49% chance to get it right. So i have a chance of 51% to be wrong when making a bet (and that for 12 times until i lose.) Let's calculate: (51/100)^12 = i have 0.0003 % chance of losing this many times (12) after each other. 0.0003% = 3/1000000 or 1 chance on 333.333 games.
So that means you can do this strategy for 333.333 games until you will lose the whole bet in 1 time = 4096 steemies.
It takes about 15 games to earn 10 steemies so that's 0.66 steemies per game. You can do about 333.333 bets until losing your investment, which means: 222.219 steemies in income before you lose 4096.
Actually, if you look at investment point of view, you are risking a huge initial investment for just a ... 1 steemies.
Let’s say, you are at the stake of 256, so you are risking 256 steemies, just to get back 1 steemies?
Actually, the martigale method might work, with unlimited budget. For this case, I don’t think you might benefit from it.
Hi @niel96
i just considered the martingale again and made some calculation. Here are my thoughts and additions:
To survive the 12 times under 2x you need deposit 8191 steemies.
On average you earn 0,49 Steemies per bet. If you can survive 333.333 games, you won around 163.333 steemies.
In case of a 12-time-streak of under 2.00x, you don't just lose 4096 steemies. You need to sum up all 12 lost bets together: 1+2+4+8....+4096= 8191 steemies of loss.
THE PROBLEM: There is no guarantee that this streak doesn't appear in 333k games. It can also appear like two times in 100k games and then it may not appear for 600k games in a row.
On bustabit there is actually a feature to check the occurrence of streaks in the past. A streak of more than 12 times under 2x happened there 13831 games ago/ 3d 14h ago. It shows me that such red trains happen even more often than we think. Keep in mind: on bustabit there is also just a 1% house edge! Here are some seen streaks on bustabit:
"Seen 11 streak in games #1640908 - #1640918: 1.66x, 1.39x, 1.39x, 1.41x, 1.68x, 1.34x, 1.31x, 1.28x... (1,068 games ago, 6h 28m 9s ago)"
"Seen 13 streak in games #1628077 - #1628089: 1.86x, 1.07x, 1.58x, 1.16x, 1.25x, 1.09x, 1.14x, 1.10x... (13,831 games ago, 3d 13h 57m 9s ago)"
"Seen 16 streak in games #1598602 - #1598617: 1.14x, 1.52x, 1.54x, 1.87x, 1.51x, 1.05x, 1.71x, 1.56x... (43,142 games ago, 11d 7h 5m ago)"
"Seen 18 streak in games #1372740 - #1372757: 1.64x, 1.49x, 1.70x, 1.17x, 1.14x, 1.06x, 1.52x, 1.00x... (269,239 games ago, 2M 11d 4h 18m 49s ago)"
A 19 streak was never seen.
"To survive the 12 times under 2x you need deposit 8191 steemies."
I think that's not correct because i start with 1 and only then i start to scale up. So it's a little more than 4000 steemies.
"In case of a 12-time-streak of under 2.00x, you don't just lose 4096 steemies. You need to sum up all 12 lost bets together: 1+2+4+8....+4096= 8191 steemies of loss."
Very good point i missed that one.
"THE PROBLEM: There is no guarantee that this streak doesn't appear in 333k games. It can also appear like two times in 100k games and then it may not appear for 600k games in a row.
On bustabit there is actually a feature to check the occurrence of streaks in the past. A streak of more than 12 times under 2x happened there 13831 games ago/ 3d 14h ago. It shows me that such red trains happen even more often than we think. Keep in mind: on bustabit there is also just a 1% house edge! Here are some seen streaks on bustabit:"
Good point but imo that means you would just need enough money to sit it through.
If anyone want to try out i can sent some free steemies