What would it take for the price of STEEM to rise to $10, $100, or $1000?
The price of STEEM suddenly jumped from $0.86 to $1.10 a few hours ago. I has receded a bit since then but we can say that we're at $1 rather than below it now. The all-time-high of STEEM is about $8 in January this year. Shortly before that SBD had spiked to about $14.
The market cap of Steem is about $290 million right now. What is the market cap of some of the leading public blockchain projects? Bitcoin's market cap is currently $115 billion, Ethereum's market cap is $24 billion and Ripple is third at $21 billion. EOS and Stellar Lumens are worth about $5 billion each. EOS has a market cap of about 20 times larger than that of Steem!
Let's look at the number of transactions per 24 h, market cap, ratio of transactions per day to market cap, and percentage of capacity in use relative to maximum capacity of some of the top public blockchains (relative to that of Bitcoin):
| # | Blockchain | Trx/d | Mkt Cap | Ind | % of cap in use |
| 1. | Bitshares | ~1,600,000 | $0.3 billion | 1.149 | 0.14% |
| 2. | EOS | ~1,123,000 | $5.2 billion | 46 | 0.09% |
| 3. | Steem | ~1,033,000 | $0.3 billion | 751 | 0.09% |
| 4. | Bitcoin | ~538,000 | $114 billion | 1.0 | 77.85% |
| 5. | Ethereum | ~470,000 | $24 billion | 4 | 100%+ |
Source: https://blocktivity.info/
If actual use is considered to be the main source of value of a blockchain, then it is clear that Steem is very undervalued at the moment. Steem was designed to be a Proof-of-Stake chain from the start as opposed to Ethereum whose consensus mechanism is planned to be rewritten as a PoS as opposed to Proof-of-Work which is what it is now. That'll be a massive undertaking.
The total market cap of cryptocurrencies about $222 billion at the moment. It was $800+ billion. I don't think it's unrealistic at all to expect STEEM to go to the tens of dollars in the next bull run. The ecosystem is growing at a rapid clip with decentralized alternatives to popular services cropping up.
$10
If the price of STEEM were $10, the market cap would be about $2.7 billion at the current number of STEEM in circulation (the virtual supply is a bit higher as SBD is a debt instrument backed by STEEM). That's about one tenth of the current market cap of Ethereum and in the same general category with Reddit whose value is about $1.8 billion. Reddit had about 1.6 billion unique visitors last July.
$100
If the value of STEEM were $100, its market cap would be $27 billion or the same as that of Ethereum today or about three times as much as the market cap of Pinterest, valued $12 billion in the summer of 2017 and having 175 million monthly users.
$1000
If the value of STEEM were $1000, its market cap would be $270 billion which is about twice the current market cap of Bitcoin of half of that of Facebook. Facebook is a well-oiled machine whose business is selling advertising space targeted at a very high level of precision thanks to extracting every bit of information from its user base by data mining everything they do. Facebook has about two billion users and about 1.5 billion daily users.
What was surprising how huge the differences in market cap were in relation to the number of monthly users. The key to a high valuation is clearly not just the amount of traffic generated but how efficiently their activities are analysed for the purposes of targeted advertising. In case of Steem, third parties will most likely emerge to analyse the blockchain specializing in providing app developers information on which to base their advertising decisions.
I'm honestly afraid to speculate about price movement in the long-term -- what little success I've had in such exercises is based on short-term technicals. But it feels like a certain dApp push might be gaining pace on STEEM.
STEEM is undoubtedly undervalued, yes, but the recognition of value in the cryptosphere requires attention -- there are projects that are overvalued because of their "brands" and the excess attention they're getting. But with genuine community building STEEM can hopefully start clawing back its fair share.
It's actually a blessing in disguise as I would like to accumulate some more on the cheap.
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hi @markkujantunen
I think times when crypto could raise 10x are long over. Steem has huge inflation and demand is simply not there. It's going to be hard to reach even 10$ anytime soon (if ever).
Yours
Piotr
Do you actually know the rate of annual inflation rate of STEEM? Let me tell you. It's about 8.7% and going down by about half a percentage point per year. What do you think the annual rate of inflation of Bitcoin is? It's 3.87% at present. You know what? The inflation rates of liquid STEEM and Vest, that is, what Steem Power actually is, are two different things. Vests are much less inflationary and Steem Power (Vest) holders are protected against liquid STEEM inflation. If you have enough Steem Power you'll notice how it increases even if you just sat on it. That's because the exchange rate between Vests and STEEM changes in a predictable manner. Also, you can earn passive income from Steem Power (Vests) by selling votes or delegations. STEEM did have a very large inflation rate in the very beginning but that was two and a half years ago.
When it comes to demand, we did see STEEM at $8 and SBD at $14, didn't we?
Yes it is very hard for me to determine a value for Steem. I come from a background in equities, so value is based largely on earnings. that doesnt work for crypto. I think you are on the right track by looking at user numbers.
Crypto is like any communications network. As per Metcalfe's Law, the value of a communications network is proportional to the square of the number of its users. What do you think the SMT's and the number of apps growing will do to the number of users of STEEM? It's critical that Steemit Inc put enough money and resources at creating top notch software infrastructure for the backend.
My wife says that the Steem will reach $ 10 in 10 years.
to $ 100 in 100 years and
to $ 1000 in 1000 years ....
They are the best expectations we have. Ha ha...
But STEEM was effectively $10 in the past when the total market capitalization of all cryptos peaked in January.
Well just wait, how will the behavior from tomorrow. September 25th
Probably nothing dramatic in terms of price action.
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Thanks for disseminating the info. Have a wonderful day. Resteemed.
Please keep it down a little longer. Some more FUD would be good so we can accumulate some more.
My thoughts exactly...
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I think we need a bullish market so the Steem value might be lifted to the highs of the last year. But very cutious what is going on with it today?!?
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Tomorrow Hardfork 20 will come into effect. A lot has been written about it lately.
Yah, let us see how the hardfork 20 will effect steem tomorrow.
It already may have in terms of price action.
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OK. But I thought the present price action is happening in the general crypto market?
STEEM jumped whereas most others ranked.
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OK. I c.
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