The Fatal Flaw of Steem: Inflation. The Solution?
I am normally very upbeat about this platform, but it dawned on me recently there is a serious supply/demand imbalance baked into the system. This gives the price curve a naturally downward tendency, as the supply of Steem keeps building up.
There is two ways to resolve this problem
One is to induce more people to buy it. However, this method has more than a little bit in common with a Ponzi Scheme. You would be selling the idea of buying Steem as an investment, yet it cannot possibly be this, it is just a redistribution.
Two is to encourage people to burn it somehow. The promoted posts is a hint in this direction. I hate to say it, but the best way to get people to burn Steem would be to actively encourage advertising. The fees for sending out an ad to a user would be a transfer to the null account that nobody has a key for.
There is a vaguely possible third way, which is to slow down the rate of issuance, but this gets in the way of the redistributive elements of the architecture, the rewards for posts, the interest on Steem Power, and the pegging of SBD, which as was recently discovered, when too much SBD is created, it pushes down Steem's price even faster.
An analogy that I have to make is to the system of currency issuance operated by Central Banks. They also intentionally issue too much, to 'stimulate' the economy. In fact, this is lies, of course, they are doing it so they can lend the money to governments, and essentially tax the economy without it being easy to see.
And this is also why Steem does this, because, in particular, rewards for posts cost nobody from the voting side, and the bigger your holding of Steem Power, according to a power law distribution, your influence is greatly increased.
It would not matter a lot if this formula were changed to become linear, what matters is some amount of Steem is allotted to paying the writers, and this Steem is new Steem, and thus dilutes the value of the token.
Going back to the analogy of the Central Banks system of issuance, they also have the ability to 'burn' the money as well. Most money is not in fact ever made into cash, it is just a number in an account. In fact, there isn't really much of a check on what this number even is, it just has to look right, as this number is based on the amount of money 'loaned' out and the required backing for this money.
Burning Fiat money is done regularly by banks. As I said, the money is never printed, it is just numbers in a database. The burning process is called 'writing it off'. This is done when a borrower fails to keep paying. However, the bank does not necessarily lose money, since what they 'lend' does not exist when they lend it, it only has to be backed by some amount, usually 10%, so, in other words, they only have to get 10% of the loan repaid and they break even.
But what happens is eventually, because of the ease of acquiring these loans for certain kinds of 'investments', causes the prices of these assets to balloon far out of proportion with the rest of the marketplace. For example, mortgages on property. The price eventually has a negative impact on the rest of the marketplace, because the cost exceeds the potential for profit (aka, not losing money) of the asset. This is already the case in much of the Western World, and is why there is so many homeless people in these countries, and why retailers are starting to shut down in greater numbers, and why unemployment rates are going up, and more money is going into the welfare system ponzi.
So, back to Steem
Steem paying for writers according to votes and vote power, essentially is a type of welfare system. The money has to come from somewhere, and probably not, from the people who get paid. So how do we get people to put money into the system, while providing them a benefit that is not monetary? There has to be a balance since people put effort into the system, and get money, so there needs to be the reverse, to enable this system to come into balance.
I hate to say it, but this is the solution:
ADVERTISING
Come check out our range of products at blablabla.com, mention promo code steemed123 and we will give you a 10% discount
The ad has to be at the top of posts, and the top of feeds, or it won't get seen. The platform has to have this built right in at the core, in the witnesses, because it can't just be on steemit.com, because as the prevalence of adblocking shows, you can't trust advertisers. But... Part of this now is because ads are carriers of malware. It is simple to sanitise the advertisement code the same way as posts are. In fact, advertisements could essentially work like this:
The account of an advertiser has a special balance of Steem that they designate as the source of funds for ads. Every time a witness places their ad on a feed, or at the top of a post, the witness then propagates a transfer from that account, using some kind of dual signature arrangement, and some kind of proof of service that goes with it.
The transfer of funds does not go to anyone, it is burned. This takes it out of circulation, and thus provides a buying pressure that allows the price to at least stabilise, if not grow.
It also puts ads in your face, but they will not be obtrusive, as they will merely be an image and a block of text. When the user clicks on it, this will post a 'vote' transaction on the ad, and then open a new browser tab that the advertiser wants you to go to.
Sorry guys and gals, there is no other way to solve this problem...
Someone has to pay for our writing, right? And it's just not right for that to be investors, because that makes it essentially a ponzi scheme.
We can't stop here! This is Whale country!
Loki was born in Australia, now is wandering Europe again after 9 months in Sofia, Bulgaria. IT generalist, physics theorist, futurist and cyber-agorist. Loki's life mission is to establish a secure, distributed layer atop the internet, and enable space migration, preferably while living in a beautiful mountain house somewhere with a good woman, and lots of farm animals and gardens, where he can also go hunting and camping.
I'm a thoughtocaster, a conundrummer in a band called Life Puzzler. I've flipped more lids than a monkey in a soup kitchen, of the mind. - Xavier, Renegade Angel
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In a way, steemit is already selling advertising. Advertisers just don't know it yet - or maybe the cost/benefit analysis doesn't work out for them at current prices, but it's built into the platform.
For example, if I'm a shoe company, and I want to get all of my sneaker ads in front of tens of thousands of steemit users, I just have to buy enough steempower to vote all of my sneaker ads into the trending list. I'll even get some of my money back in curation rewards.
The issue with that is there aren't really enough current users to make it worth investing that kind of money to do it.
Exactly. If you can afford to make a fat upvote for every post about shoes the whole Internet will be full of those posts )
It's just a bit more subtle way than just "pay for advertising ".
That is one possible solution, but not the only one.
I'd rather look at this from a longer perspective. How will the Steem ecosystem look like in five or ten years? How people are using steems and steem dollars? Are there any smart contracts on the blockchain that people can use if they pay for them? Do UIs like Steemit offer any extra features for steem dollars?
Are there other platforms and services built on top of the Steem blockchain?
PS. I just wrote about inflation too: https://steemit.com/steem/@samupaha/high-inflation-in-steem-is-an-interesting-experiment
@samupaha, Thanks for mentioning your inflation article. Read it, appreciated it, up voted it, and now following you...
I understand the gnawing feelings of doubt that have come about with the massive drop in the price of steem.
Advertising is built into the platform and there are no doubt other relatively non-intrusive ways that forms of advertising could be used to generate demand for steem. But I think there is a price for steem at which there will be a buying frenzy precisely because the investment potential in Steem is massive. Demand could very easily outstrip supply under certain conditions due to the relatively inelastic cost/benefit of the SP mechanism. We need more whales and dolphins. The best way to get them is for the price of Steem to fall to a very accessible level so that the risk of becoming a whale or dolphin is more reasonable. As we approach a hard release, hopefully with the sorely needed additional functionality (like profile pages, wall messaging, improved post search and grouping capabilities etc) we should have a huge marketing and incentive push for both existing supporters and new.
This expansion and pull back growth may continue through several phases....continued growth dependent on utility, competitiveness of the underlying tech, accessibility of the tech to devs & entrepreneurs and growth of the steem economy around the main platforms. That's what I believe, though i've been wrong plenty of times...
I'm not opposed to having the advertising. It think it is a good idea. I just think that a platform like this that can pay you has so much potential for user growth but it isn't realizing it because the leadership. @ned @dantheman @steemit are powering down still while the price is getting crushed. That is causing others to feel like this is another crypto money grab. Good content creators like us are having a hard time making anything at this point and we are the stubborn ones who are still around hopeful. A lot have left. If the above mentioned accounts stopped their power downs word would get around very fast and I think we would see other whales stop their power downs and it would cause a ripple effect to stabilize the price and people would focus on powering up. The crypto community would take note on an uptrend and I think we could get a lot of power ups and things would change for the better. Until then it is going to get a lot worse before it gets better.
Mr. @ l0k1 valuable information, interesting point of view, calls for reflection, congratulations. thanks for sharing another brilliant post
I understand the trepidation that people have of allowing ads on Steemit, but until a marketplace develops for Steem that draws a fair amount of users in, this is the most viable solution. We already have Google ads when we use the search bar; including them as minimally-intrusive banners is hardly outside the realm of acceptability.
I said this is a comment yesterday.
Currently, there is nothing there to drive the price up, only down right now.
And you are correct, advertising is just about the only "right" now solution that I see.
As someone else mentioned, there will have to be a turing test to ensure that it is not bots just snarfing huge amounts of data. Actually, that makes me think of another anti-bot measure, rate-limiting. If ads are clicked on more than say, once a minute by a user, then their clicks are not counted as human also.
I am a bit bemused to notice also that many comments here don't even acknowledge the fact that only demand for steem will drive the price up. Diminishing supply has to play a role as well, or it's really little more than a ponzi.