STEEM 2017
I've been bullish on Steem ever since the 2-4 USD / token days, so remember this should NOT be taken as any financial advice, and any investments made should only come from disposable income, in my opinion. Anyway, here's my take:-
BTC is hitting another peak soon. Sell-offs should trigger buys in other cryptos.
Steemit's development roadmap is coming out soon (I think on 1st January).
People are getting their bonuses and finances sorted out for the new year.
The growing and maturing community here is progressively learning and understanding Steem's advantages over other blockchains. This awareness should spill forth and strengthen the network. With more debates and talkshows happening for Steem's ambassadors, this could only be a good thing. Six months into the Steemit experiment and we're still around. Staying in the game is key.
I think Steem's blockchain has the right designs in place for a social platform. If Synereo and Akasha ever shows up in the market - it will bring more attention into social blockchains. This can benefit Steem if positioned and marketed properly.
Behemoths like BTC and Ethereum may face network issues when the hard questions about scalability come hitting. It's already happening, at least in certain circles in Ethereum's community. I still believe in Ethereum, although admittedly I've changed my position about it's short-term price after discovering Steem a few months ago. Steem is simply more developed and feels complete with an application like Steemit. The funny thing is, most of my cohorts in Ethereum seems to think that Steemit's a scam and it's especially baffling after finding out they don't even know much about it!
Steemit acts like a crowdfunding platform that goes to all kinds of entities (groups, individuals). It's the equivalent of spreading investments on a wide portfolio and hoping for exponential returns in at least one. The ability to earn new Steem isn't entirely dependent on stakes and hashpower, and this is quite a differentiation compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Reddit's current market value is at 240 million USD. A quarter of that is 60 million USD. Assuming Steemit can easily achieve that market valuation, one Steem token in 6 years would be around 60 million USD / 400 million tokens. Which ends up at 15 cents / Steem. That's the price right now at ~200 million tokens. If you're feeling way more bullish than Reddit's position like me, then adjust accordingly. Plus, consider that Reddit has only about 15-30 people working in direct interest of improving Reddit itself. Steemit has way more than that, considering that the wider community has some stakes in the network.
Steemit is partly a successful basic income implementation if you think about it. Instead of granting basic income blindly, here rewards are given to just about any displays of effort. Once the message is clear that Steemit's the place for self and community development, I think it will carve a nice broad niche for the network. Get rewarded for doing what you love and care about. Well, at least that's what seems to be going on for Steemit at the moment.
I think communities in Steemit will be better organized in 2017. We're a new kind of organization after all. There's plenty of potential once the structures are figured out and improved upon.
All said, of course it remains that market attention is usually mostly focused on one, and that's Bitcoin. All currency values are just human beliefs anyway, and Bitcoin's market value is certainly attention grabbing despite foreseeable network problems in the near future. In any case, it's a good thing for cryptocurrencies in general.
And personally, I've recently converted most of my Ethers to Steem. I think it will be a long period of uncertainty. Bold move I know, knowing that Steem Power liquidation has been reduced to 3 months and I'm nothing compared to all those who are powering down at the moment. Like always, all predictions are just predictions. The best I can do is to write these things in hopes to persuade minds and to appeal to dreamers without misinforming (please tell me if I did). In the end it all comes down to belief, and I think Steem has the right fundamentals.
Can't wait for the development roadmap! I really need to know the rollout so I can plan out what I can do in 2017.
Just checked my account on Steemd.com. And look at the amount of pages of activities / transactions! One page lists about 150-200 items. So for the past 5-6 months, there's a total of ~60,000 stuff that happened between the community and my account, reflected on the blockchain. I don't think I've even achieved 10% of that in my involvement in all other cryptos combined..
"All currency values are just human beliefs anyway" The amount of times I have tried to explain that to people recently...
Lol. There's a great writeup for this, and makes for a nice read too
http://ideas.ted.com/why-humans-run-the-world/
Cool article!
I lost faith in steem some time ago, due to the Whale problem and the fact that only the whales can take away their own power. However Steem is still VERY useful, if only as an immutable ledger for text communication and broadcasts. I do share with you that Steem will grow during 2017, I personally will be using it quite a lot. However I feel that the financial cases for using steem are flawed. A basic income is granted to EVERYONE, steem is administered by the whales. I've not fully considered how much of an effect the 3 month power down will have, but my initial thoughts are it will go some way to removing their seemingly limitless power. Great article though thanks for sharing. Ive been following you for months now
Thanks @cryptosi for the follow and response :)
I don't particularly see whale concentration as a problem, especially atm since that we're still considered in the early stages. In my mind, the network is considerably decentralized, also with curation guilds these days to spread the votes a little more. I remember when I joined few months ago when Steem was about 20-25 cents, and I was lucky enough to hit thousands on a single post. These days even 300 bucks seems difficult at the same price level. It's weird that I'm saying that the network is improving even though my own potential payouts are much lesser these days!
Not sure what you're talking about, any example of the financial cases that you mentioned?
Currently if you invest money into steem, you are simply handing your money over to whales for them to disperse as they see fit. Whales and even guilds can disperse payments but they never actually need to invest. This is what I mean by flawed financial cases. However the power of steems community cannot be denied, and if the merit system is overhauled then steem could go back to a $400 million marketcap overnight
I see, yup that's a legit concern. I would call it a "lossy" system, since it's backed by a subjective proof of work. But then again, if you think about it - BTC isn't considered "lossy" because funds are dispersed only to miners, which in turn MUST also maintain the network in order to go on. So the MUST keyword there is important I think.. and ways to contribute to the network is actually way more indirect that anyone would expect.. call it a big Black Swan experiment if it ever gets that huge.
That's a very very very good point! Only difference is that Bitcoin's total coins is capped, so Capital appreciation is huge factor in investing. Actually the only factor. If steem had a fixed amount and raised funds via advertising or some other route then it would become a much more financially viable model. Infact I dare say that someone will fork the code and do just that sooner or later.
Accounting for unretrivable / mia accounts and all that, i think a small addition of new currency is okay.
You are absolutely right...I have touched subject briefly myself here. Potential is huge and we only see tip of the iceberg, as @ned said it couple times. 2017 will be year of Steem!
Yup I read that piece! Very interesting times ahead.
A little birdy told me that there's going to be another roadmap announcement on the 1st of January as well, from another start up using
steem_apifor something revolutionary to its industry. Exciting times ahead!Let's hope something more can be said exactly one year from now :)
more there is the better it is for the ecosystem. 😊
My thoughts exactly :)
Interesting.
It will be interesting to see if the BTC spike has another leg to go or a proper correction takes place. I agree a lot of ALT coins prices have suffered with capital flowing into BTC. I suspect we'll know within 24hrs.
BTC could go way higher.. I don't know. A rich system gets richer, perhaps with all the hype going all around :)
Here's hoping the price blasts all the way up to $1200 and beyond
Hear hear!
Nice insightful look at the possibilities... in these markets any and all logical approaches could flip on a dime... it's all a crap-shoot.
All my points may not apply at all hahah. Anything can happen, maybe even an unheard of coin suddenly comes into the market wiping everything clean..
That is very much possible..but where is the fun and anticipation without that mindset?
It's quite exciting living on the edge.. haha
And that maybe the fun of it all... I hope you have a very prosperous New Year!
Well any good crypto should serve for the better of all mankind, so everyone wins (i'm that idealistic lol). You too @kyusho. All the best!
Awesome post, Im gonna power up another 1000 steem today
Yes, perfect read for the morning here
Nicely done, hopefully it's part of your disposable income.. then that's fine.
Very informative post, thanks for sharing, Kevin. I enjoyed reading it!
Upvoted and followed.
Thanks @lazariko12 for taking the time reading it, glad you enjoyed it :)
I think this positive community and steemit ability to actualize ideas is very compelling.
Here's to a great 2017! 🍻
Assuming that good actors have a net positive effect over this low-barrier, but lossy system :)
Cheers buddy.
Great post and I share your optimism. Did I understand correctly that you assume the steem price will be 15 cents in 6 years from now? I cannot imagine and hope not that this will be the case.
That's just an assumption at 60 million USD valuation @ 400 million Steem tokens that will be in the market (assuming all liquid) in 6 years. 60 mil / 400 mil is 15 cents :)