Steem price and low demand - Fix it finally! Solution is waiting

in #steem4 years ago (edited)

Solution to fix decreasing demand for Steem requires IMHO just small to moderate effort only:

Easy (but critical) tasks:

  • cut SP inflation to 1 %
  • cut STEEM inflation to 10%
  • cut mining reward to 1%

More difficult tasks:

  • bring additional motivation to SP holders (premium features, rewards, bonuses)
  • bring non-invasive advertisement
  • bring new social features

Although many of these are nominal cuts, they will actually boost price, rewards and investor attraction and bring long-term sustainability. Good thing is that based on some unconfirmed rumors at least some of these changes will come sooner or later.

Postfix

Steemit is great platform regardless of what Steem price is. However good Steem price trend or at least some price stability is needed to boost attention, adoption and further investments.

Image credits: public sources

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I don't think this simplistic approach of "Cut! Cut! Cut!" is sufficient, but I do think improvements can be made. The "More difficult tasks" are unfortunately also the more important ones.

Central bankers are desiring inflation at least 2% and many people consider it criminal. How could Steem survive 10-100% ? I thought we wish to model fair and sustainable environment. Even those 2% means if you save 1000$ and in 50 years you'll give to your grandson, he will get only about 30% of the initial value.

I never said I supported high inflation. Though I will say that personally I think holding money (without making any productive investment with it) for 50 years and expecting that to not lose a lot of value is somewhat dubious. Realize that 50 years ago we didn't have any sort of personal computers, (landline) phone calls cost a fortune, air travel was in its early stages, and we barely had color TV. I don't think holding for a few years should take a similar hit though.

What you're saying about computers, TV and traveling is right but I don't see it as a consequence of inflation. I believe fair money should just keep value. If it preserves value, people will invest anyway to support/get/create additional values. Investing just because of fear from loosing value is sick and leads to irrational or even dangerous decisions. And with just those 2% annual inflation (which is so low that never happened in fiat money history) rather don't ask where all the value (over 60%) goes in those 50 years. Definitely not to those people who are working, investing & risking and creating something useful. Majority of it goes just to system bloodsuckers.

I wasn't suggesting that those improvements were the result of inflation, but that the world has changed so much I'm not sure it makes sense to expect money to have the same value in terms of purchasing power. Imagine living in a poor country where the typical income is $10-20 per day. You can probably buy a decent meal by the standards of the local economy for fifty cents or maybe less. Take that fifty cents with you when you move to New York City and you can't buy a decent meal any more. The economy in New York City bears little to no resemblance to that in a poor village. In my view, that is similar to what happens over long periods of time. When you are talking about enormous changes in the economy over 50 years, unless that money has been actively involved in the economy and has grown with it, I'm not sure equivalent purchasing power in a completely different economy is a reasonable expectation. I respect that you may not agree.

However, where we do agree is that over modest time periods money should retain value. If it is losing a lot of its value within just a few years or even less, then something is wrong, and I agree that when this situation occurs people make poor, destructive and even dangerous decisions out of fear of seeing their money disappear. I'm also not a fan of inflation that benefits bloodsuckers. You can't really generalize though. Most of the inflation in this system benefits bloggers like you.

I see your point. Changing prices in general is not the problem I'm referring. You're right, nothing can promise you constant purchasing power. Problem is printing / issuing new units and diluting original supply. This degrades whatever unit you hold and it's hidden taxation of your wealth and it's always considered unfair. And it also brings outflow of investment capital unless it is either some monopoly like reserve currency or something that is demanded by law. If it's optional, you just don't want to hold it - unless you're doing it for charity or some higher purpose. If Steem creators don't care about that, I'm fine with that but then I don't see any reason for having Steem, SP and SD. It will crash anyway. If they do care and they want to create top social network with millions of users and working business model, they should support investment with no (or very low) inflationary environment. Investors are already suffering with lot of losses already - $ inflation, exchange rates, gain taxes, etc. I don't take argument that bloggers benefits from inflation because investors must benefit first so bloggers can benefit. No investors, no rewards for bloggers. Look how rewards plunged during last month due to the outflow of investment and related price decline.

Though I will say that personally I think holding money (without making any productive investment with it) for 50 years and expecting that to not lose a lot of value is somewhat dubious

In cryptoland the opposite is dubious.

[I'm answering your later comment]

So you think the price right now for steem is fair?

I have no idea the markets decide that not me.

My opinion is that steem is at a clear disadvantage compared to other cryptos because the speculation/investors/traders part is non existent in steem. Steem with only 10% inflation right now would definetely be in the top 5 cryptos. It has much more future potential than coins like litecoins or monero and investors would be pourring in money right now if they could without being debased or locked.

If you are looking for someone to support the investor-unfriendly "features" of Steem, it won't be me. I think I said the same thing when we discussed this on bitcointalk.

Cryptoland has not existed for anything close to 50 years (much less longer), nor has it ever been a consistent store of value. It isn't at all clear what works or doesn't work long term in crypto. Note this does not mean I am supportive of Steem's investor-unfriendly structure. I've never been a fan of it, though I do see some aspects of it having a purpose.

I can't reply to your other comment because of nesting, but it is incorrect that pre-spike there was no app. The site was up and running for two months and there were quite a few users, possibly a similar number to now (many of the "spike" users are now gone). It was actually a reasonably-well-known source for crypto news and articles and posts were being widely linked by other news site and blogs (this was around the time of the DAO debacle and many of the posts were about that). So I think the price comparison is pretty fair.

My point is that people in crypto expect to gain money, that's a big use case in crypto that you can't deny, if you try to convince them to invest in steem by making such statement they are going to run away.

So I think the price comparison is pretty fair.

So you think the price right now for steem is fair?

My opinion is that steem is at a clear disadvantage compared to other cryptos because the speculation/investors/traders part is non existent in steem. Steem with only 10% inflation right now would definetely be in the top 5 cryptos. It has much more future potential than coins like litecoins or monero and investors would be pourring in money right now if they could without being debased or locked.

Op I agree mostly with your idea that we should remove the inflation however I think you have some misunderstandings regarding inflation rates.
Currently steem is inflated by 100% -300%. If you lock your steem in steem power then your steem are only inflated by roughly 10%.
You seem to think that 10% is high inflation but it's not, many crypto has inflation of 10% . Bitcoin used to have 10% only a few years ago and is now about 5%.
Also your proposal says cut SP inflation to 1 % and cut STEEM inflation to 10%. You can't do that because steem and SP are essentially the same thing. If you cut steem inflation to 10% it would mean that SP would be 10% too. This is where you realize that the current inflation is totally unnecessary .

If you reduce steem inflation to 10% then there is no point to lock people's coins for 2 years and so there is no need to incentives people to power up. The incentive is already there, powering up allows you to earn curation rewards but you need to reduce lock time period to max a week or so if you want people to want to participate and play the curation game.

Investor ideology hasn't work for Bitcoin, Bitshares, and it will not work for Steem. Letting these speculators take over is going to result in Steem becoming nothing more than a pump and dump like all the other platforms the people with that ideology control. If you believe you are an investor,and you only got involved with Steem to make a short term profit, why do we want your "investment" if you spread the wrong ideology and pump and dump is the only thing you want?

Short term speculators want to remove inflation, they want to remove the 2 year waiting period, so Steem can be more easily dumped like any other cryptocurrency. We should resist that.

Investor ideology hasn't work for Bitcoin, Bitshares, and it will not work for Steem

Bitcoin price will be at least 10 times lower right now if there was no investment offer. So it is clearly an essential part of it.

and it will not work for Steem

Why?

You clearly show a lack of understanding of how market works. Liquidty creates stability, steem is highly unliquid which means that it is highly volatile. Do you know how many bitcoin was needed to send the price to 4$ and the marketcap to 200 millions ? Only about 400 BTC. In a liquid market you would need 10 000+ btc to move the price so much. It is much easier to manipulate a market with such low volume and liquidity. The reason the price only move downward and you don't see price swings beside one going down is because nobody is buying steem. An investors willing to buy 1 000 000 $ worth of steem won't be able to do so without sending the price to 10$ + and will have to pay a premium all the way up.

Also I am curious how do you expect the rewards will be paid if you don't want investors? because people who want to blog are certainely not going to buy much steem power, they are here to make money not to spend it.

they want to remove the 2 year waiting period, so Steem can be more easily dumped like any other cryptocurrency. We should resist that.

Steem has already been dumped for 2 months, look at the charts please. The 2 year lock period hasn't prevented the dump, if anything it has accelerated it because when people feel trapped they want to get out. If you remove lock time period there will be a lot less people dumping because they know they can cash out fully at any point in time. This is basic human psychology.

Preventing people from dumping is very much against free markets. You shouldn't try to stop that but instead try to find buyers to rebalance it. Someone in the bitcoin community once said free markets expresses the will of the people. In other words the lock time period prevents people from acting rationally in the market.

So you want Steem to try to be like Bitcoin? Bitcoin will never be mainstream and will never appeal to the people Steem appeals to. Why would you look at Bitcoin as a model of success?

Steem needs to look at other similar platforms and ignore the whole crypto community and all speculators within. Those speculators who don't support Bitshares will not support Steem. They will see just another sh*tcoin and pump and dump it, which will create a temporary spike but then it will be all over, just as it was for all the others.

If the best idea the developers have to build demand is to invite pump and dump crews to Steem then I will say that concerns me a lot. No company or startup would seek to invite those kinds of speculators because they don't have much value, and to reduce the amount that Steem Power gives out will only reduce the long term support even more for Steem.

@ned has some really horrible ideas and I will predict if these ideas are implemented there will be a mass power down and rush to exit result for Steem. And what do you expect when @ned is powering down himself anyway along with many of the others who promote these ideas?

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Great post, Its good to here changes are on the way . That said You are right Steemit is a great platform regardless of the value steem is at.

Thanks, I'm quite sure we will see some significant improvements until end of this year.

I disagree changing the steem power, value my steem power for it witness power and not just as economic value. AS it goes low the cheaper my steem power becomes.

And one more thing. Right adjustment is critical. Thinking that Steem parameters were adjusted correctly at first attempt is just highly improbable. It's not about market manipulation (which is bad), but just about correct parameters to make it ready for long-term growth. Almost everything produced by men needs certain re-adjustment before it works really well. If Steem devs will not do it some other group will make it right somewhere else.

Parameters are irrelevant right now. There is no marketing and no demand and tweaking parameters is what you do when you actually have demand and want to try to get a little extra. Not only is there no demand right now for Steem Power, but there is no easy way to buy Steem Power with a bank account, and Steemit itself just isn't fun right now which is why people are chatting and blogging in other places which have better UI features.

Fix the UI/UX first. Then make the platform more sticky and fun. Then make it easy to upgrade and subscribe. Just look at Reddit or Amazon or any website which does it and you see they don't appeal to "crypto investors" with Bitcoins. They appeal to customers and users.

It's actually very relevant. If you wish to have more features, great UI/UX, then you need more developers, best developers, you also need a budget to pay them from, you need investments and you need investors. If you want to have investors, you need to create good investment environment without pitfalls. That's why you need low to zero inflation. Imagine trying to persuade someone to buy stock knowing that there will be 10-200% inflation on it. He will just laugh at you! Only exception would be if you can expect value growth 1000%. per year (and not growth in users, growth in value). This is currently pure fantasy. And if this happens somehow in one year it's not sustainable long-term.

Ok, but inflation is still killing it. Currently your SP is loosing 10% of value if all other conditions are constant. That's huge inflation. Look, let's say you invest 1000 SP for 1000$, with 10% inflation after 10 years, you'll loose 65% of initial value and you'll have maybe 1 million SP but you will have just value of 348$ due to the inflation. Considering everything else stays constant. That's just wrong. And so you need at least 10% marketcap (not just userbase) growth every year just to preserve your investment. I also don't care about price that much and I will use Steemit no matter what but for really wide adoption and mainly for significant investment there must be business model that makes sense.

Killing it is a matter of opinion. We have basically dropped back to pre-spike levels. The value of SP paints a slightly different picture than the price of STEEM too. You should check out:

https://steemit.com/technical-analysis/@timcliff/historical-mvest-to-usd-price-chart-steem-power-has-not-lost-value-over-the-long-term

Thanks for the link. It says that "Steem Power is meant to be cushion against the inflation." That statement is not correct. It just gives significantly less inflation compared to Steem but there is still huge SP inflation and so it's no cushion in general. "1 MVEST today is still slightly more than it was pre-price pump!". True but I have not seen any alive crypto project that lost 95% of marketcap. Also although it is still true for now there is nothing that should keep it at least that high for the future. Inflation and money outflow (which is currently slowed down) will put it much lower if my fundamental assumptions are correct. There are many new Steem users, but in spite of that price of all measurable units (STEEM, SP, MVEST) is falling down because it's poorly designed and set from investors PoV mainly due to strong investment degradation by inflation and also too strong money outflow (which is currently partially frozen as rewards are currently mostly in SP).

I've read posts that basically described the price spike as an investment round to generate funding to build out the site and fund other projects. Granted the fall from the spike looks really bad, but if you ignore it and just look at the historical price trajectory - the value of SP shares has still gone up (slightly).

I agree. I'm also still optimistic in long-term because Steem creators brought some really smart ideas on the table and that makes me believing that they are smart enough to correctly understand what's wrong now and will be able to fix it soon.

I've read posts that basically described the price spike as an investment round to generate funding to build out the site and fund other projects

People who say that are just trying to find excuses for the price drop.

If steem wasn't so inflationary the platform would be a perpetual source of funding and the system would never run out of money to fund new projects
That's what attracted me at first, I saw for the first time a self funding model where the blockchain issued new money to basically fund itself. Imagine if bitcoin miners used part of their revenue to fund bitcoin startups, bitcoin would have a lot more marketing going, more quality products and be overall more healthy.
Steem could have been that if the system allowed speculators and investors to take part, unfortunately the inflation and the 2 year lock period prevent them to enter.

It just gives significantly less inflation compared to Steem but there is still huge SP inflation and so it's no cushion in general

That's not correct in general. When 90% of STEEM is powered up, SP has (approximately) no inflation at all (more units are created but it has the effect of a stock split where everyone gets proportionately more shares; no one loses value). When 100% of STEEM is powered up, SP has about 10% net inflation (long term average; currently this is higher). Currently STEEM is 93% powered up, or 86% powered up if you include virtual supply (debatable whether this is correct), numbers which have both continued to fall more or less continuously since the launch. The meaning of all this is that SP currently has very little inflation, arguably negative. The future is uncertain but there is no reason to believe that SP "real" inflation would ever closely approach the 10% maximum in practice.

Thanks for the details. Even that doesn't change my major major objections:

  • SP inflation (0-10% pa) or even negative in certain cases
  • STEEM inflation (100% pa)
    Even now it's a "punishment" for both cases. As I've written we need inflation range that doesn't frustrate users from holding STEEM/SP.
  • SP inflation (0-1% based on SP/STEEM ratio) - fair inflation that everyone can survive.
  • STEEM inflation (10%) - still enough to motivate for SP and still usable for daily traders trading STEEMs

Killing it is a matter of opinion.

Indeed the investors who bought at the top would probably have a different opinion

We have basically dropped back to pre-spike levels. The value of SP paints a slightly different picture than the price of STEEM too. You should check out:

Pre-spike there was no app, barely any developement going, pretty much nobody had heard of steem and people didn't even knew if the system worked as intended.
Now 6 month later, many apps have been built, almost everyone in crypto know about steem, the user base has increased a lot, many many projects have come to life, yet we are back to pre-spike level, do you suggest that's where the price should be right now or? Also how do you expect the platform to grow, the investors to buy if the the rewards on the platform keeps dropping as more users use the site?

The value of SP means nothing. STEEM POWER is STEEM. When steem goes down your steem power value goes down.
You seem to want to make a point that VESTs have gain in value but this is totally not true. VESTs are similar to shares in a company how can shares in a company gain value when the overall value of the company crashed?

Steem is stupid to invest in and only a fool would buy Steem. And Steem Power is only useful if it provides some utility you want. Stop trying to sell to short term speculators and focus on gamification, long term thinking, and you will have better people involved.

Maybe short term speculators are trying to take over Steem by spreading short term profit mindsets and "investor" ideology. Snap out of it.

@snowflake No not at all. I think you have to use gamification to make people want to power up. I also think you need to accept credit card and more traditional banking mechanisms so people can for example subscribe to Steemit.

The reason no one is powering up is because Steemit isn't positioning itself as a company trying to profit from power ups. It's trying to position itself as a sort of non profit. How exactly is Steemit even trying to be profitable?

Just tinging with the parameters is pointless and the fact that they want to parameterize everything to give us the illusion that by manipulating the economy maybe we can fix it? But does that work in any economy where you can just change one parameter and everything fixes?

Demand is non-existent. Maybe if there was demand then reducing the supply could be discussed but when there is no demand then it doesn't make a difference how much inflation you have.

Answering here

The reason no one is powering up is because Steemit isn't positioning itself as a company trying to profit from power ups

That's definetely not the reason. Everything is free in the social media stuff, if you gonna start charging people it's a failed business model from the start. Steemit has an advantage over other in that it actually pays .The reason is that people think that it is not worth it to power up, lose 10% of their investment every year, lock their money for 2 year for what? for merely being able to earn a few pennies through curation rewards.

But does that work in any economy where you can just change one parameter and everything fixes?

As i already said steem is a complexe system trying to fix problem that don't exist. The hyperinflation has no purpose at all in the system so does the lock time period, so yeah you can definetely improve things by making them more simple and most importantly more attractive to investors. ( today investors are on the bench)

Demand is non-existent. Maybe if there was demand then reducing the supply could be discussed but when there is no demand then it doesn't make a difference how much inflation you have.

Inflation + no demand = steem at 0.00001 soon

If there was no demand and no inflation then the price would sustain better.

But ultimately the goal would be to achieve no inflation and demand so that the company ( platform) gain value over time.

Steem is stupid to invest in and only a fool would buy Steem. And Steem Power is only useful if it provides some utility you want.

Thanks for proving what I have been saying for days. Steem has no investment proposition.

Maybe short term speculators are trying to take over Steem by spreading short term profit mindsets and "investor" ideology. Snap out of it.

So you expect the money to pay for bloggers will fall from the sky or?

Pre-spike there was no app, barely any developement going, pretty much nobody had heard of steem and people didn't even knew if the system worked as intended.

Not true. The spike occurred right after they started paying out, but the site had been running with users on it prior to that.

The value of SP means nothing. STEEM POWER is STEEM. When steem goes down your steem power value goes down.

What you are saying is not entirely correct. You should read: https://steemit.com/technical-analysis/@timcliff/historical-mvest-to-usd-price-chart-steem-power-has-not-lost-value-over-the-long-term

Now 6 month later, many apps have been built, almost everyone in crypto know about steem, the user base has increased a lot, many many projects have come to life

Much of the falling price of STEEM since the spike has been to pay for these things to occur.

Also how do you expect the platform to grow, the investors to buy if the the rewards on the platform keeps dropping as more users use the site?

Within the next ~2 years I expect that they will have the features of the site built out to the point it is mainstream ready, and at that point they will begin selling advertisements of some sort. At that point there will be a revenue stream flowing in to the economy instead of what we have today which is pretty much everyone taking money out of it.

the overall value of the company crashed

If you believe that it has gotten to this point, then why are you still wasting your time here?

Not true. The spike occurred right after they started paying out, but the site had been running with users on it prior to that.

I know the site has been running prior to that, I said people didn't know if it was working as intended ( if it was paying)

Much of the falling price of STEEM since the spike has been to pay for these things to occur.

The price of steem didn't fall because rewards were cashed out, rewards are a drop in a bucket compared to what whales have been cashing out and what the hyperinflation is doing.

begin selling advertisements of some sort.

A few hundreds per day is not gonna make any difference and I doubt any investors will pay more than that with 2000 daily users. Having many ways to burn coins is certainely a good idea to reduce inflation but if you rely on this to pay for the ever increasing user base then you are in for a surprise.

If you believe that it has gotten to this point, then why are you still wasting your time here?

You missed the point. I was just explaining to you why a share in a company can't increase if the overall value of the company decreases which is exactly what happened to steem.

@timcliff Steem has good potential but I don't think the parameters need to be altered. I think they need to hire better UI/UX people, and start adding features. The new features are not coming in at a fast enough pace, and the kind of features which need to come in need to appeal to mainstream psychology. People want to stay in contact with their friends but there is no friends list? There is no groups? There is no private messages? There is no video casting? There is almost no social features which people really want?

So of course there is no demand for Steem Power. Why buy Steem Power when you don't have anything to have power over? Why be a king or super hero in an empty virtual world?

@snowflake and @ned is a whale, the biggest whale, yet he is the guy who has the idea to let people reduce the inflation rate? And what if him and the other whales do that, and also get rid of the 2 year waiting period, and then just dump all their coins?

Their interest to dump may be related to the fact that they have the most to gain by immediately dumping. People who actually bought their way in or worked their way up, might not be so quick to dump because they have more to lose psychologically.

This isn't to say @ned will dump, but he is powering down, and he is the founder. So if he is powering down, it is like Steve Jobs selling his stocks.

So why would anyone value Steem Power if the founders want to power down?

Inflation rate has nothing to do with the attractiveness of Steem Power. If Steem Power were valuable and easy to acquire then people would want it and money would pour in to get it. No excuses, there hasn't been any marketing at all for Steem Power. All marketing has been to extract as much $$$ as possible from Steemit via bloggers or short term speculators so what do you expect ot happen?

You could do all the marketing in the world people still wouldn't buy it. This platform says blog, get paid. It doesn't say blog, buy steem power, get paid. People who use steemit use it because of the "free" money. Only investors could be interested to buy steem power but they don't want to lock their money in something they have no idea how they are gonna make a return.

short term speculators

short term speculators are non existent on this platform, they are excluded, that's the biggest problem.

People buy when it's easy to buy using traditional means, and when there is marketing in place. Marketing isn't in place so people don't even know why they would want to buy, and then if they do want to buy then how do they use their credit card or bank account or Paypal to do it?

Think of how Amazon Prime gets people to subscribe. How is Steemit going to get people to subscribe? Short term speculators are pretty much worthless except for supporting Steem Dollars. If short term speculators were so valuable then Bitshares would be the top crypto platform right now and it's not.

People will only support Steem if it's addictive, provides real utility, and is easy to subscribe to with traditional bank accounts. No Bitcoin, no shadow economy, none of this scam ridden crypto anarchist marketing will work.

Mainstream investors have no interest in crypto. So no matter how much you market, you will never draw them in. And the few you do draw in are only interested in pump and dumps and think of Steem as just another sh*tcoin, so why do you want them here?

True, people will use and support Steem if it's addictive, provides real utility, etc. But the same doesn't work for investing. People will use it but they will not buy shares in in. Only if it's so super-cool than you cannot live without it, then maybe. All opinion here has some validity but my point is do easy improvements first and that's fixing current stupid inflation setting. Then start creating super cool features, then marketing and then there will be millions of new users and thousands of new investors and everyone will be happy and all thing will go mainstream.

Amazon Prime is not a good comparison, people who go on amazon go there to spend money so obviously it's gonna be easier to have them spend money on anything when they have he card in hand already.
Steemit wants to be a social blogging site, social media site are free to use. If steemit starts charging people they start with a huge disadvantage. Steemit has potential because it pays users, something no other social media site does.

Short term speculators

You seem to have an issue with speculators but you havn't explained why you think they are bad for steemit. You mentionned pump and dump but I don't see how this is bad for steemit. Traders do their business and content creator do their. Both can coexist very well.

No Bitcoin, no shadow economy

This is so 2012, bitcoin is evolving. I think you havn't been paying attention but circle has partnered apple imessage, bitpay partner with intel, an ETF is coming soon, many big company accept bitcoin, if you think bitcoin is still shadow you've been living under a rock man.

Mainstream investors have no interest in crypto. So no matter how much you market, you will never draw them in.

Mainstream investors are going to ask themselves how is this platform sustainable and they will quickly come to the conclusion that in its current set up it is not.
Also good luck trying to convince mainstream investors to buy bitcoin, then buy steem, then power up and lock their investment for 2 year. This my friend aint gonna happen.

Answering here

@snowflake and @ned is a whale, the biggest whale, yet he is the guy who has the idea to let people reduce the inflation rate? And what if him and the other whales do that, and also get rid of the 2 year waiting period, and then just dump all their coins?

I am definetely not a whale. I wish.

If we get rid of inflation and lock time period and whales dump it's going to be no different than what is currently happening. I mean the price is already at 0.10$ so there is not much room left to dump, but assume they are going to dump. That means that they are going to get rid of their steem very very cheap and so the distribution will happen much faster, bad actors in the system who only care about the money will be out quickly and steem will quickly find an equilibrum when everyone that wanted to dumped dumped and the price can now rise.
Basically it will accelerate a process that is inevitable regardless of the lock time period.

The new features are not coming in at a fast enough pace, and the kind of features which need to come in need to appeal to mainstream psychology

I agree with that. However as i said you could have the best looking site people still wouldn't pay to use it.( power up ) Every social media site is free, you can't expect people to pay money on it. The whole point of steemit is that they can earn money.

Their interest to dump may be related to the fact that they have the most to gain by immediately dumping. People who actually bought their way in or worked their way up, might not be so quick to dump because they have more to lose psychologically.

They have nothing to gain by immediately dumping at those prices and I can guarantee you that many whales that are dumping know would actually reconsider if the inflation was reduced and lock time period too, because it will make their stash instantly more valuable, the likelyness of steem price to increase will increase 10 fold, people are not gonna dump at pennies.

So why would anyone value Steem Power if the founders want to power down?

Because it is the only way to participate in the system and earn rewards through curation. But the barrier to participate needs to be lowered to basically zero . The facts that founders are powering down is irrelevant.

Whales cannot dump quickly currently. Also, what matters is demand for Steem Power and quality content can be used to increase demand.

I see no effort at all for advertising Steem Power or for adding gamification features to make Steem Power more attractive. It's almost like the developers have given up and it's a shame.

Instead I see discussions about reducing the inflation rate to encourage short term speculation, which makes absolutely no sense at all because no one has a reason to hold onto Steem if Steem Power were attractive. If anything, it looks like it's a rush to the exits as the founders and big holders are fumbling over each other trying to power down and make tweaks to for example reduce the inflation rate or get rid of the 2 year rating period so they can dump faster.

So I guess if everyone is trying to power down as fast as possible it's get out while you still can? Until I see some serious effort in marketing and gamification why should I expect anyone in the future will care about Steem Power? And when you can't even buy Steem Power without Bitcoin it's almost useless anyway.

I think you miss the point of this platform. This platform is not here to sell a product it is here to rewards content creator with cryptocurrency.
99.99% of people using steem want to earn SP they don't want to buy it. Even if there was some incentives to buy steem power like reddit gold , bagdes this is not going to pay for all the rewards. These things could help reduce the inflation rate to lower than 10% on the whole platform by burning steem ( like the promoted features already does) but it is never going to be enough to pay for everything.

The content is the product. The content producer produces the product. Cryptocurrency is irrelevant to 99% of people and no one needs to give a damn or even see the word crypto.

If Steem is just another cryptocurrency then it's not goin anywhere and will be dumped just like others. If it's trying to be a world changing platform then long term holders are the only people who really matter, and speculators only matter to support the Steem Dollar but holding onto Steem itself isn't important that I can see. You either want people to hold Steem Dollars or Steem Power, and not Steem, and the price of Steem can go up if people have enough demand for Steem Power and Steem Dollars.

The quality of Steemit content has been going down for months as the payouts have been going down. Payouts are high to support the quality content production. So yes, the product is content.

You expect users to be rewarded from other users buying steem power. This is a failed business model.
People who will pay for content are the ones with heavy pocket, it has always been and always will be.
If you remove those people you basically shoot yourself in the foot

The only way the current model would work is if steemit has already huge user base and many advertisement contract , then they could use that money to pay for rewards. But bootstrapping a site like this to something like facebook with no speculators/ investors is never gonna happen

You expect users to be rewarded from other users buying steem power. This is a failed business model.

People already pay for content and will continue to pay for content. If I could buy Steem Power and get higher quality more personalized content then I would buy it if I could with a credit card or bank account. My own personalized information feed would easily be worth it and the more Steem Power I have the higher the quality of my feed.

Steemit isn't going to have to be like Facebook. Speculators and investors are not necessary. What is necessary is an easy way for people who have lots of money to get the content they want.

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