Steem Getting PUMP'ed, will there be a DUMP?

in #steem8 years ago (edited)

Wow, Steem is up over 300% in the past week.

There are positives and negatives to this kind of price appreciation. It makes payout's larger in dollar terms, and gets the Steemit platform a good amount of attention that will result in increased user numbers. However, often a large dump can see a crypto currency sold into obscurity never to be seen again. I don't think that will happen with Steem, however I thought I would give a traders (Oil Trader by day) analysis of the market conditions...

24hr Traded Volume on Bittrex is over 3 times larger than it was yesterday at $120,000+ showing that the most recent acceleration in price was on large buyers pushing the price higher rather than trading on low volume.

One thing to notice is that we have seen some acceleration with larger candlesticks being formed at the top of the move. This signifies that the market is starting to rebalance with large buyers and sellers battling with each other to get there volume done. I would expect to see either consolidation (sideways movement) or a re-tracement (small fall in prices) following this kind of price action 'alone'.

One further thing to notice is that there is far more volume on the bid than the offer;

There are 12m+ Steem on the bid, and 47,000 on the offer. This is a very bullish signal. The buyers (volume) outweigh the seller by a factor 255 to 1. This alone should prevent any impending dump which is great news for Steem believers.

This really shows the genius of the structure on Steem, Steem Power and Steem Dollars that was setup by the founders of this site. Stability is key, and with the 'vast' majority of Steem held in Steem Power, the market cannot be flooded with sellers at a moments notice, however high the price goes. The higher the price goes, the more users Steemit will attract, the larger and more engaging community Steem has, the more valuable the platform will become.

There is a limit as to how high the price will go in the short term. At a certain price users will begin to Power Down their Steem Power to cash in profits. This will rebalance the market, which is currently massively outweighed by buyers.

For Today

Overall I think if we see 0.0013 trade, this will be a strong buying signal with resistance at 0.0012 broken significantly, however a break of 0.00094 (previous blip on the chart) would signify the end of the rally, and maybe a time to cash in some Steem (that being said, the imbalance of volume could turn this market higher at a moments notice, so I would stress the word 'some').

Since I started writing this article, another $15,000 in volume went through Bittrex. This is half the daily trading volume I have seen the last few days (done is 30mins). There has clearly been a big demand shift for Steem. Probably a bunch of cryptocurrency traders with FOMO (fear of missing out). Expect high volatility over the next few days.

Steem on the offer is still falling too. Now just over 34,000...

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Makes sense that it's been pumped but the major advantage to Steem is that there is something holding it up. Something that is working, that people can see. No whitepaper, upcoming ICO, generic product website. An actual running service. It would interesting for those who have steem to hodl like the best of em.

This could be a very interesting week :)

Completely agree. User numbers on Steemit from 4,700 to 6,100 in 4 days. That's growth and a big sign (in your words) 'somethings working'.

@kevinwong you know what @ghostyeti meant ;) It's now reality not theory! You are of coarse correct though..

I read that, thanks mate :) As per Ollie's comment below, 90% of the people discovering Steem won't go near a whitepaper or a roadmap, they just want solutions and are outcome based users. Still, I stand corrected :)

Guys I found this pump group that is looking very promising

https://t.me/SkyMoonPumpSignal
https://discord.gg/BWY23rh

Also they give the signal on their website at https://skymoonsignal.com

Steem is like no other crypto in the market, I can see it in the #2 position on coinmarketcap within 3 months.

Steemit definitely has the attention of the Cryptophiles. Now it needs hoards of genuine content creators & social networkers.

Steem has low volume (compared to other crypto). It's being pumped up, but will soon be dumped by the masses for profit. Mark my word. It's happened with every other crypto so far. What goes up, must come down. The question is; is steem good enough, and popular enough, to go back up after its downfall (this will be the determining factor of whether or not it will stay relevant, like bitcoin and ether.

What do you make of the action in the last 21 hours? It went up to nearly 5 dollars, crashed to around $2.22, and now is climbing back up over the 4 dollar mark a day later... Serious volatility. Will it go up to 5 dollars again tonight only to crash hours later?

Do we have figures on how much STEEM is held as liquid STEEM vs SP? STEEM Power is not dumpable, and represents necessarily long term investment. A higher ratio of SP to STEEM would be another very positive sign.

You can see the numbers in the box on the right side of steemd.com. Current supply is 94.760 million of which 93.085 million is in the vesting fund (Steem Power).

@smooth Great catch, Thank you. 98% then... Very high number. Great for the future of Steem.

I can't find it. But, 50% of payouts are in Steem Dollar and Steem Power, and all of the founders Steem is held in Steem Power. I would guess that the number is well over 75% Steem Power, but I do stress that I have nothing quantitive to back that up...

Personally, the majority of the Steem Dollars I have earned have been routed into my Steem Power balance. I can't imagine many people have been powering down, so 75%+ is certainly reasonable.

I think #steem is too generic a tag for price discussion. I don't want to freak out non-techies. How about #steem-trading ? Could feel a little lonely in a separate tag at the moment, but I have little doubt that soon enough the price of Steem is going to be one major discussion topic here.

I have added this to steam-trading and will continue to do so with other content that suits that tag. Agree with you on this note

Order books mean nothing in crypto past the 5 minute time frame. They are easily (and often) manipulated by whales by putting up huge 'walls' to scare the price in the direction they want while executing the real orders in the opposite direction, scaling in and out of a P&D scheme.

Focus on the fundamentals. While I think Steem has potential I think that drawing rewards from market capitalisation alone can undo the whole project. Its just not sustainable to keep creating value for curators and posters out of thin air. The lack of advertising or other revenue sources may bite Steem in the ass hard.

While in a trading mindset avoid starry eyed idealism, force yourself to view both the best outcome and the worst case scenario. But if you believe in the project there is no harm contributing what you can spare, but that will be a donation, not an investment.

I agree, the sum of order books is a terrible metric.

You see, 10 million Steem (80% of all the bids) are placed at a price of 1 satoshi, which is never going to be reached.

A market depth graph which takes into account the current price range makes more sense, but even then I would not call that a reliable indicator.

Metcalfe law suggests value growth as a quadratic function of the size of the user base. It would be interesting to have charts that use number of accounts in abscissa instead of time, and show both the price curve and upper and lower boundary quadratic curves. That would help assert visually whether Steem price indeed appears to have a quadratic growth component, and get a clue where it would have to go next if it is to converge back to metcalfe.

I will look into this. Thanks @recursive. Pretty technical, but always happy to get an eduction and exchange idea's. Historic data wise, this is the best source I have found (for user numbers, market cap could be easily found on multiple sources). It will take a while to record (manual) and compute everything necessary to achieve what you want.

https://steemle.com/charts.php

It should be possible to get the market data using the Steem RPC API

My impression at this point is that the internal market design is absolute genius and insulates the Steemit system from speculative dumps by crypto punters to a far greater degree than other systems out there. IMHO, this design further amplifies the bullish signal that the author is referring to.

friends this telegram pump group is very successful. I would recommend

Telegram:
https://t.me/JokerCryptoPump
https://t.me/moonpumpteam

Video:

Guys I found this pump group that is looking very promising

https://t.me/SkyMoonPumpSignal
https://discord.gg/BWY23rh

Also they give the signal on their website at https://skymoonsignal.com

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