RE: Cooking the books -- the real story of whales and dilution.
Hello @sigmajin
Always happy to address a rebuttal. I stand by my numbers and previous post, after I had it thrown back to me a few times by some trusted users. I am currently on my phone, so I will readdress you properly in future.
I need a little more time to go through this, however the one thing that jumps out at me is Blogging Rewards.
You've got Blogging Rewards and Curation rewards the wrong way round. The top 1% are far more effective Curators than the rest, because the rewards are based on your voting power, and many users jump on their back as soon as they vote. This is 25% of the Post Rewards.
Blogging, which is 75% of Post Rewards is highly unlikely for the top 1% to keep up with. The Top 1% were the early adopters, so the number to date don't do justice to what is happening now and what will happen moving forward.
I'm about to do some weekly numbers so I will be able to show what has happened in the last week.
The biggest problem for both of us is that, as user numbers swell (which they have this week) each new user is starting at ZERO, and synthetically pushes a large account into the 'top 1%'
What is a fairer exercise is to look at the top X accounts, and see the change week on week. I have put this as part of my week Stats post, so we will all be able to monitor the progress..
Im not really sure what your numbers are. I saw your dilution and distribution posts. I agree with you that these new steem are being created. I just havent seen any numbers from you (or anyone else) to indicate that enough of them are going to bottom 99%ers to significantly impact the concentration of steem power. Yeah, a whole bunch of new SP is being minted, but if most of it is going to the top 1%, then its not really dilution.
I have the top 1% getting almost no blogging rewards in this estimate(1% of blogging rewards, which is probably way less than they really get) and half the curation rewards. I think both grossly underestimate how much they actually make. My gut says 75% of curation and 50% of blogging.
I don't see why it will be harder for whales to "keep up" with getting blogging rewards. If anything, it will be easier for them, because with more posts everything but what they pin to the front page will get lost in the din.
Im going to try to see if theres any way to cull the info out for how much they actually got for blogging and curation, and carry that forward for a year sometime tomorrow i think.
EDIT -- ok i found your numbers... i mean thats kind of ridiculous. lets just ignore block creation? And assume that the top1% dont get content creation rewards?
When I run some numbers this afternoon, I will post you, and we can discuss.
In theory, I'm confident that the top x accounts will be diluted significantly this year, however it will be interesting to see week in week out why actually happens...
Thanks for getting involved. I'm not saying your wrong. We are obviously looking at this slightly differently..