Perhaps, 1 dollar per STEEM after 4 of July
There is a myth that 4 of July will drop a price down. In this short post I will explain why.
Here is a picture what kind of supply and demand we will have at 4 of July:
To understand why external supply and demand don't matter during the first week, please, accept that those who will be rewarded will technically have only 3 options:
- Sell SBD to STEEM on internal exchange. There will be ~$650k SBD to buy ~280k worth of STEEM. This is THE ONLY action that will have impact on price.
- Convert SBD to STEEM. This action means waiting 1 week while price is uncertain. Such actions imply high cognitive costs but don't imply any impact on price short term.
- Hold SBD. This action don't have any impact on price.
Thus if you want to withdraw or power up you either increase value of STEEM before you will have ability to cashout (or power up) or leave value of STEEM untouched. Brilliant @dan. Good program :-)
Remember that if you wish to sell cheap, you automatically drop value of another half that you have in STEEM POWER.
Wow I had never thought it through like you did. Thank you!
Where is this internal exchange? The UI only show the conversion from SBD to STEEM. Is there any documentation on this exchange?
I suppose guys from Steemit Inc release UI in a day or so. Or you will be able to do it using console
https://test.steemit.com/market.html
It would be really awesome to show usernames (with links to profiles) in orderbook. Kinda of social exchange.
Does it connected to testnet or mainnet?
Real block chain.
Slick, when it going online?
According to the white paper p. 45 it says direct conversion would not be possible to prevent timing attacks. A real market is also discouraged see "Minimizing Abuse of Conversion".
When searching for internal market I could only see posts describing your option 2. It seems like I missed something.
Do you know where I can read more about this?
Also could you send on the console and console command if you have it?
Conversion != selling on the market: through conversion you increase STEEM supply and destroy SBD supply, but through internal market - not. On internal market you buy or sell what is already exist.
I got my questions answered in slack:
The paper talks about blockchain conversion while a market of steem <-> SD does not offer abuse of conversion. Abuse of conversion: Trading large volumes without changing the price.
Direct conversion of SD to Steem move sd and steem around while option destroys them. The internal market seems to be a new feature.
Internal market has existed since launch. Just no steem dollars to trade yet.
more like 5 cents after the massive dumping
I'm guessing it may hold at $0.15 for awhile. We are about to find out. It's actually up now, which is very impressive with the 400% interest rate on STEEM Power currently.
The only rational choice is to hold SBD. If you want to get out, wait until the market looks like it will be stable or rising for a week.
A whole bunch of people that we're paid in SBD are going to want USD. No matter how you slice it, it's going to end up a net outflow of value from the steem network. Someone, somewhere has to pay for it. If you haven't figured out how, you need to look harder.
Well. We'll see soon!