My Thoughts On EOS, Cardano, STEEM and SMT
The crypto world is experiencing (yet another) interesting clash between the creators of two of the most visible projects in this space at the moment: Cardano and EOS.
It started with @dan peer-reviewing reviewing the Oroboros protocol of Cardano in this post, then Charles Hoskinson answered here. An interesting contribution to the debate was made by @ned in this comment.
As you already know, I'm not interested in fighting fights that I don't belong to, nor in joining sides of invisible wars and I have a consistent repulsion towards what I ended up calling "Steemit drama". So if you came here to join another virulent word party, you may safely leave now, I'm not going to attack anyone, and I'm not writing this to pretend that I'm right or wrong.
But I do feel the need to share some thoughts related to the point at which we are - or I think we are - right now, in the evolution of the crypto world, form social, technological and financial points of view.
Social: Who Is Using It?
Blockchains are now mainstream. It took less than 9 years since the inception of Bitcoin to reach this point. The technology is now mature, stable and usable, but its "fitness for a particular purpose" (to quote from the MIT license) has yet to be proven. Probably the best example here is the amount of research and work that went into the Turing complete virtual machine of Ethereum, and the explosion of CryptoKitties.
It's like we're using computers monitors to crack coconuts. There is a huge gap between the technological advancement and the actual social penetration. There is this natural inertia that stops any innovation until a critical mass is reached and we can't really overcome this. It's not enough to have a fabulous technology, if nobody uses it. Or, even worse, if people are misusing it.
Accelerating social proof is probably the single most important point of failure of any new blockchain project developed now. Because it's not about how good the technology is, but about what type of problem solves and in what way (i.e. better than other technologies or not?).
Financial: How Fast Can We Agree On Value?
As you probably know, I do believe that all value is made out of thin air. In other words, there is no intrinsic quality of value, and it appears only in interactions between people, based on agreement. So, the fundamental value of anything doesn't come from the processes evaluated, but by the initial agreement of the parties involved.
The speed at which new technologies are launched poses a significant threat here: how much time do we have now to agree on value? Two years ago, Steemit was launched and, in a 2 years time frame, it barely had time to prove a social usability model. We're barely realizing how do we agree on the underlying value of the STEEM token, on a very clear and consistent use case (a social network) and we start to see this in the perceived value of the token, which validates the model.
But it took 2 years to get there. Now we're trying to fast forward our expectations and force ourselves to find value in EOS, or Cardano, even before the social proof.
While there's nothing intrinsically wrong with this, we must understand that if we're doing this, we're on the riskier end of the agreement, which is a bet. If it's not proven and if it doesn't have a consistent social proof, the risk of the value agreement is sky-rocketing.
Technology: Planning For Obsolescence
In top 50 crypto currencies, @dan, @ned and Charles from Cardano have together 4 projects. This is an astonishing result in and on itself. I'm talking obviously about Bitshares (@dan), Steem (@dan and @ned), EOS (@dan) and Cardano (Charles). These 3 people crossed their paths in various ways during the last 3 years and out of these interactions fabulous projects resulted.
But. There is a "but"...
These technologies have a very short timespan. Innovations that were revolutionary 2 years ago are now common sense, or, worse, somehow obsolete. Things like DPoS, for instance, are now common lingo among blockchain aficionados and even among power users.
So the question is: how long until these things that are common sense now will become obsolete? And what do you do when they will?
In my humble opinion, the more social validation a technology has, the longer its path to obsolescence.
For instance, BitShares, as a general payment solutions, may see faster degradation times than Steem, which is a very niched implementation. Also, Steem steered in the right direction, niching the product even more, with the addition of Smart Media Tokens. They aren't a blockchain innovation, but rather a user generated product on top of a working blockchain.
Also, the lower the financial pressure (less money and expectations from investors) the higher the potential output. Because money tend to amplify, like a loupe, any wrong steps that you do.
Steem experimented below $1 for almost a year, on a $300-$400 marketcap. EOS is already above $10, with $7 billion in marketcap, while Cardano, although trading below $1, is seeing an astonishing $18 billion marketcap. These is serious money in these two potential products and every perceived flaw will ripple (pun intended) further and further.
Inflection Point
I think we're at an inflection point, somehow similar with the moments between web mass adoption at the end of the nineties. Very few people remember the fight between browsers at that time, when players were Netscape Navigator and Internet Explorer.
Because at the end of the day, it was the user's pressure which dictated the market leader, despite IE being backed by huge money from Microsoft.
Blockchain-wise, I think we're going to see the first massive social validation for some of the most advanced (albeit potentially unusable) technological products in the making.
And the winner will be picked by end users, and this time they will pick it with their own money, not with mere usage.
I'm a serial entrepreneur, blogger and ultrarunner. You can find me mainly on my blog at Dragos Roua where I write about productivity, business, relationships and running. Here on Steemit you may stay updated by following me @dragosroua.
https://steemit.com/~witnesses
If you're new to Steemit, you may find these articles relevant (that's also part of my witness activity to support new members of the platform):
This is normal.
My personal rule: don't touch a crypto before it has 1 year of successful operation.
My solution: BUY THEM ALL!
Not the best one to say the least.
Don't get used to bubbles when everything is rising. They always fade.
lol thats the way to billionaire @hotsauceislethal thanks for info @dragosroua
Note Charles was on the early stage of Ethereum and is still working around ethereum classic (from his company IOHK).
My main annoyance is twofold:
We need to do something about it.
Let's just hope it's not the South Sea Bubble all over again. ;-)
image source
That's a good example of how expected future profits can turn out if it doesn't happen. Maybe a good anology for BTC, But I don't think that it's a good anology for Steem.
Why? Well, Steem already has a working product and a growing ecosystem. It's not like the 'trade' isn't already happening.
Yup, Steem is working, its like one of few crypto that has a product to back up its value.
I'm thinking the same way. There is a lot of altcoins, but without real value. Steem has it. Just the same way US Dollar had it up until mid 60s.
I also appreciate the research that went into this article, as I am a Quora and Wikipedia contributor. I am sometimes rewarded after searching for quality articles like this in the pool of superficial posts.
Good job, @dragosroua !
Very interesting thoughts. The blockchain technology is here to stay. However only the best coins will survive and rest will be obselte in next 5 years.
I do love a good Cat fight. Especially when you have no idea what they are going on about.
Its much like watching movies about Baseball. Enjoy the highs and lows and the heroic ending. But still have no clue as to how the game is played.
It's been a feature of Steemit that it flares up from time to time.
Fraggle Rock Time at its best.
The whole Concurrency scene is a blast.
I love the fact that after putting out a Post that is clear and respectful and detailed. You are still getting questions like, "Who's gonna win the 3.30 at Haydock." Speaking of Big Prophets, how about the story of some Russian Oligarch buying 2 Power Stations to mine Cryptocurrency. I mean Marvel Comics could not make it up. As always @dragosroua Live Long & Prosper
betamax vs VHS indicates that the technically best product doesn't always wi.
also the Edsel and quite a few other technical innovations.
I agree. Technical superiority doesn't automatically lead to mass adoption. There is definitely a quality quotient involved, but it needs to be something the end user sees, (so not hidden quality) and it almost always needs to be accompanied by something else to capture the attention and fancy of the public at large. That generally happens because of price point, ease of use, and/or a vanity/or cool factor.
inexpensive definitely sells better.
Frankly, I don't understand this statement: "BitShares, as a general payment solutions, may see faster degradation times than Steem,..."
I don't think the social acceptation variable would be the only one applicable for indicate a obsolescent trend
Of course Steem is more social than BTS... that's one of the main aims of steem...
In my opinion, developers as @dan @ned and Charles should be focus more in the development, improvement and promotion of the already working blockchains, which still have to arrive to the people... BITSHARES and STEEM have an enourmous growing margin, while, Bitcoin for instance has less due to its lack of social usability
My statement is somehow similar with yours above. But I was comparing Steem with BitShares from the point if view of users adoption. In Steem, there are probably 30,000 people using the product every day, while in BitShares I think the number is at least a number of magnitude lower.
From this point of view, BitShares may become obsolete faster than Steem.
But obviously, I may be wrong...
My original and still main reason for coming to Steemit is: it allows me to do something I enjoy—writing and offering my opinion—with the potential to receive something in return. It wasn't, and still isn't (though I'm learning) how cool I think blockchain technology is, or because I wanted to invest in STEEM (though I've started to do that).
Then, I got here, and found there was actually a community with more than just interest in being creative or opinionated and getting paid. People care about those things here, but they also care how things look going forward. And they want to be a part of beneficial, long lasting change. Something that actually betters society at large.
To me, that's where the value is, and that's where the potential longevity is. We value social engagement, community and improving our society more than we thrill at the volatility of cryptocurrency markets or recognize the technical beauty of the blockchain.
Hello Dragos,
Two questions for you, since you obviously know stuff.
Cheers Mate and thank you in advance.
first question: I have no idea.
second: if BTS continues innovation, degradation will slow down significantly - as a matter of fact, I consider BTS a technology way better than BTC, at the moment.