A Few Thoughts About The Current SBD Pumps

in steem •  10 months ago

Screen Shot 2017-12-06 at 12.29.12 PM.png

As you can see from the chart above, it all started 2 weeks ago, with a very consistent volume, 406 BTC. For the next days, the price corrected but now the spikes are seen on a much lower volume. For instance, today we saw SBD almost at the highest peak reached on November 22nd, 29k satoshis, but on a far lower volume, only 31 BTC.

Another useful information is that, as of now, according to CoinMarket cap, there are only $3.5 millions SBD in circulation.

Screen Shot 2017-12-06 at 12.36.47 PM.png

So here are my thoughts about this (as always, take it with a bit of salt, it's all speculation)

  • at a price 3-4 times higher than the peg, moving freshly minted SBD into STEEM is a no brainer, so I expect this trend to continue
  • the power of those who started the pump may weaken relatively soon: there is only $3.5 millions available, and is not all concentrated in the hands of a few (although I have no way of knowing this, I'm just assuming it)
  • the two above, combined, are giving a time window of about 6-12 days (roughly until Christmas) until the peg is restored (if no more moves are made by the SBD whales, or if they decide they bought enough STEEM). In this time window a lot of STEEM will change hands. The demand for STEEM created by this pump should have an impact on the STEEM price as well, so we might see it at least stable during the next week and a half.

All in all, I'm just rambling about the fact that we're going to see a much higher STEEM very soon.

Obviously, I may be wrong and I invite you to start from that point, when you're making your own analysis. Question everything.

I'm a serial entrepreneur, blogger and ultrarunner. You can find me mainly on my blog at Dragos Roua where I write about productivity, business, relationships and running. Here on Steemit you may stay updated by following me @dragosroua.

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Man I wish I had more SBD. Last time it spiked I only had 14 SBD to convert and I have about the same now...I keep telling my wife now is the time to use those SBD because she wants to buy BTC or something other than STEEM (for the first time). She doesn't understand how it all works (the different STEEM currencies) and likes doing things her own way so I'm done trying to explain it.

I'm converting what little I have because it's a great opportunity.


I saw the issue on GitHub the other day but I didn't know it was you. I don't think it's that easy to do this on the STEEM ecosystem. The fundamental assumption is true, but there are a few internal things specific to Steemit that will break this.

AFAIK, SBD is basically a debt instrument. There is a certain ratio that controls the issuance of SBD versus STEEM (it's all in the white paper, I think).

If you increase debt too much, by creating more SBD, nasty things can happen. On the other hand, if too much SBD gets concentrated in the hands of a few, we may see this happening.


Not sure what you mean by SBD being a debt instrument. I am under assumption SBD is backed by 1 USD worth of Steem. Maybe I should read the white paper :)


Maybe I should read the white paper :)

Yeah, I think it's explained better in the white paper.

As a conclusion we should see STEEM growing in price while SBD decreasing I guess...


probably... :)


The would be the preferable direction for STEEM overall, but not for those who like to up their Steem POWER on a discount.

I'd like to understand it eventually, even if it's only in hindsight a year from now.


I think we'll all understand it sooner than that.

I'm very happy about the SBD price at the moment :)
And even though I always have only very little to sell, it's great when you get 3x the normal price for it :) I sold at the very top yesterday - both SBD and Steem ;)

It is better to question when in doubt...for me its all the time. :)

It has been a insane up move on SBD. I got in converting SBD to Steem on that first rise but now its at even better rates. Not sure if a top is near but do not really care as like everyone else feels, wish I had more SBD to buy the cheap Steems.

you just came up with a better strapline for steemit --- it should be -- 'steem, question everything'

Thanks for sharing your thoughts. Do you know why witnesses are not using their Bias variable?:)

Great analysis of the situation i was thinking like that what happened all of a sudden

You have very strong points here.