The Growth Model of Steem: Tree Rings
This is an extension to my last post about generations on Steem. Cryptocurrency, being a financial asset existing in our present financial environment, and one that is inherently speculative, has it's own feedback loops. This has the effect of a boom/bust cycle, which very heavily affects user growth of the network. This has been true for Bitcoin, cryptocurrency in general and for Steem specifically. It's interesting to note that Steem's cycles have not been entirely synchronized with Bitcoin, although there is certainly a correlation.
On Steem during the boom, payouts are high which attracts a lot of people. In the bust, payouts are low and effort seems wasted, so we shed users. This introduces a kind of 'seasonality' to Steem, although not of regular interval or as predictable as the real summer and winter. Continuous, exponential growth like that of Facebook or Twitter would be nice, but for us it's just not the nature of the beast. Instead, after each full cycle, we are left with a new core to build upon. Every new cycle, as long as it doesn't die, the tree gets bigger, with solid rings built upon solid rings.
The end result can still be exponential, just not continuous exponential growth. It's more like hyperbolic growth for a brief season, followed by a longer period of decline and then lull, until eventually we see a brief season of hyperbolic growth again.
This makes me wonder, what of the users that are shed each cycle? Do they come back as part of the new cycle or are they typically forever gone from Steem? We have had 3 such cycles so far, it should be answerable in the data.
Price is what attracts most people. As long as price was > 1$ activity was much higher. Not everyone has the necessary patience...If somehow the “floor” for steem’s price was around 1$ I believe we would see an exponential growth
I see Steem is growing like a big tree in the forest
Thankyou for helping @jesswest she will be happy to see some good votes
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I have zero doubt that if steem's price were to ever reach $8 again, we would have people who left coming back. I don't think they are gone forever at all. The FOMO would be too strong IMO.
This is great to share @demotruk. I think the many steemians we have lost are difficult to be seen here. We hope to see many great changes and improvement to encourage the very few ones. Upped and resteemed.
Active users are posting on daily base. When the price goes up they will benefit from the influence they have. Old users attracted by the better gain on the platform may invest much to promote their contents. Peace
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I will say those who shed some may tend to come back while some are goje forever. But i hope those who are leaving steemit now will not regret it because they may be taking a decison they may later regret in the future. A great future is ahead for both steem and steemit and i still believe in this community even though people are leaving. I am staying
No doubt price matters, but those who are passionate to do something, they will do it, whatever is the price, Though the activity is less, still there are many people who are posting regularly. This shows the importance of steemit in their life, Price is gradually increasing and hopefully, we will see more activity.
I love how you framed this. Agreed. I think we see many old users resurface when the price goes up... I am seeing them trickle in recently..
Hey Steem, I've been really busy.. I'm back.. :)
I haven't seen it yet. We are only treading water now, January was just as active as December and so was February. I consider that a good sign, almost every month last year was a significant drop from the preceding month. It seems inevitable that if we can be stable for a while, growth will follow.
Nice analogy! Would like to know the numbers but in my experience I’ve seen lots of fairweather users come back after a new cycle catches their attention
I imagine that "season of decline" plus another life event has a big impact on whether or not people stay around.
When the crypto market is tanking, life still goes on.
Although I really enjoy the Steem community and am invested in Steem, I do a lot of my interaction in my "buffer" time. So when my free times is used up in other ways, often my Steem interaction is the first to go. It is a sad reality for me, but it is reality at this time.
I have my own pet theory that having earned some Steem and forgotten about it, will make you much more likely to get back in when the price goes up and you've got some surprise money.
I can see that happening. I just hope people who temporarily forget about Steem don't forget their keys. It would be a shame to be able to see the value of their wallet but not have access to it.