RE: Important STEEM update 09.09.17
There seems to be pretty strong support around the 0.00025 / BTC level but who knows what news event could cause more panic selling in the crypto market. I would think people holding a lot of STEEM would be crazy to sell it at this level but that's their business. I'm holding mine and buying more incrementally while it's cheap.
I'm a believer in charting techniques to predict price movement and you've made some pretty accurate calls in the past. I've also used basic TA when I used to trade stocks, ETF's and options on a short term basis and it can usually be applied to any liquid market whether it's stocks, commodities, cryptos, or whatever.
Price is also news-driven at times as we've seen with the China news the past couple of weeks but aside from the news cycle the chart is a good way to predict what might happen. I'll be waiting and ready to play catch the falling knife if it does drop to the 0.00015-0.0002 level as your chart suggests. That price would be a gift for sure.
From what I've seen you have a pretty good track record with the method you use.
Yes, but is it NOT the percentage I am right that makes it profitable. You can be right 80-90% of the time and still have a loss in the end. I've seen this for myself. I have a forexbot with a hit ratio of 85% but it is not profitable because the losses are so much bigger than the wins.
With my method it is easy to have bigger wins than losses. That is all that counts ;-)
Absolutely.
I've read from several different sources that even the most successful traders are only right about 30-40% of the time. What makes them successful is knowing when to cut a loss (quickly and without emotion) and knowing how far to let the winning trades run before taking profit.
One of the strategies I've seen was by a Forex trader who uses a 3:1 rule for successful trades vs losing trades. So a simple example would be--If one bought a currency or stock or whatever at price "P", they would set a stop loss at 0.99P (a 1% loss would trigger the stop) and set the target for profit at 1.03P (a 3% gain). This is just an example but it's similar in nature to you method (bigger profits than losses requires less winning trades to come out ahead).
On a side note, you're one of my favorite people that I follow in terms of trading and analysis. Keep up the good work :)
3:1 is very difficult to achieve in the longrun. I aim for 1,7:1 but I have had some awesome trades with 10:1 or 15:1 hit the target, but they are rare...