Help Me Figure Something Out Steemians So We Can All Get Rich!
I'm sure some of you have noticed but there have been issues with Poloniex lately. Withdraws and deposits are disabled for both Steem Dollars and STEEM. I put a red dot to show what it looks like when you are on there.
Well if you look at the chart at the top of the screen you will see that the price was going up just an hour ago. Also look at all the volume for the day. 209 Bitcoin worth in the last 24 hours!!! Dafuq? If no one can deposit or withdraw and this has been going on for awhile how is there that much volume?
I knew a ton of people have a lot of money that is in limbo and Poloniex won't respond to them. So I'm wondering how all this trading is going on. It is kind of hard for me to believe that all this volume is just from people who were sitting on liquid SBD and is trading it. That would make sense if most of the orders were sell orders and it started clearing out the order book.
Why would someone buy Steem Dollars on Poloniex when it is going for $1.70 but over on Bittrex it is going for $1.42?
This spread was too temping so I decided to sacrifice a Steem Dollar. I looked in my history for what the memo was to send Steem Dollars to Poloniex knowing that I might lose it forever. I sent it hoping it would somehow show up and my plan was that I was going to start sending to Poloniex and trade the Steem Dollars for BTC and then shoot the BTC over to Bittrex and buy Steem Dollars and then send that over to Poloniex and sell that for BTC and keep repeating that cycle until I was rich. or the price difference gap closed.
Unfortunately it never showed up. 😢 There has to be something I'm missing here? I looked for other gaps in the market and I can't come up with any route of how to take advantage of this situation. I have looked at the prices on Bitshares, Blocktrades, HitBTC, Changelly, and the Steemit internal market. Unfortunately Shapeshift.io doesn't have STEEM or Steem Dollars anymore so that wasn't an option to look for a spread.
There has to be something I'm missing? Let's figure out what is going on here so we can all dominate and exploit this price spread over and over again!
Thank you for reading my post and please consider following me @brianphobos
hi brian,
I had a think about what the issue is at Poloniex and it frightens me to think if I was correct, how deep the ramifications are.
My theory (which is just a guess)
Poloniex experienced a catestrophic loss of funds. This could either be through security issues or interal siphoning of funds - theft / embezzlement etc. Either way, the exchange is insolvent.
The exchange attempts to create a mania phase encouraging people to deposit anything and everything and then market making themselves with substantial volume that cannot be proven to be legitimate.
Highly inflated coins gives rise to many users with inflated portfolios, except, anyone who likely has a win from participating in these manipulated markets will find it troublesome to withdraw. At first, a few who made large wins will not be able to withdraw, then as more and more people report withdrawal issues, a systematic lockdown of funds will occur.
The mania phase results in large deposits which then can no longer be withdrawn. This gradually fills the 'hole' which the exchange created by market making each of their markets, and most likely front running a lot of the 'pump' with money not belonging to them ( probably from the capital base of the users )
Effectively, the inflated price of the markets there, are only held up by the fact that fewer people can actually 'realise' profit because it's not BTC when it's just a number on the exchange. It's BTC when you can withdraw it, and see it in your own wallet - an action which cannot be taken by an increasingly large base of users.
For me, I had a very substantial amount of money on Poloniex, none of which I have been able to withdraw since over a month ago. It has been complete silence from support despite multiple attempts to get any updates on why my withdrawals have remained in awaiting approval for over a month.
To answer your question in lamens terms :
Someone is willing to pay a premium over nominal market prices of SBD because it attracts people to deposit SBD to sell for BTC, but the BTC cannot be withdrawn. Poloniex could literally place orders at ridiculous prices with phantom btc.
I would be very surprised if I ever saw my money there again. I will assume it is lost and treat it as an expensive lesson.
As of right now, I will probably take advice from another friend on Steemit ( @onceuponatime ) and avoid centralised exchanges altogether.
Oh Wow! For starters thank you for the detailed reply and I'm really sorry to hear you had a substantial amount of money on Poloniex. That is also crazy that this has been going on for over a month. I'm really glad I didn't really have any money over there.
Things aren't looking good and like you said it is probably insolvent at this point. It could be the next Cryptsy, Mt.Gox, MintPal situation.
Steemit should really warn everyone and temporarily make it so people can't sent funds to Poloniex. When I sent a SBD I knew I would probably never see it again but just wanted to try it because part of me was greedy and thought that if it went through then I could make a ton of money.
I wish there was more volume over on BitShares. That would be amazing if a lot of volume went to a decentralized exchange.
Yes, there is still trading at Poloniex even with transfers vanishing in crypto currency nirvana. Eh, I never really understood this trading magic ...
I wanted to suggest Eobot but then realised that they hold Steem only and not SBD. Too bad.
On the side note. Steem(it) really needs some sort of announcement / messaging / red alert system. It should be easy to add a box to the top of every page saying "Don't send to Polo, it's not working!"
Yeah I agree there should be some sort of warning for people. Do you have any clue why someone would pay $1.70 on Poloniex when it is going for $1.42 on Bittrex? I just don't feel like the traders are that unsophisticated. I feel like even a $0.05 gap is a lot and it quickly gets closed.
I just feel like there is something I'm missing about the situation or somehow people are getting rich right now without us. :-(
All I can say is - money isn't everything :)
In other words - no, not a clue.
Good post! Upvoted. There is annother post about this I found at this moment:
https://steemit.com/steemit/@steemit.nemesis/ned-or-delegates-please-help-about-the-issues-of-poloniex
Good luck!
Ok thanks, I left that person a comment as well. I just don't understand how there are so many trades taking place over there. It doesn't make sense.
Thanks for this post, let's find out what's happening
Yeah I'm sure you are working real hard on finding out what is happening. Working so hard that you forgot to upvote this post but graciously upvoted your shit comment.
Thanks on the heads up
Yeah no problem. Don't try to sent to Poloniex for sure but I just wonder how there is so much trading going on there.
Firstly have a look at the poloniex and bittrex Steemit accounts. You can see the amount of liquid steem and steem dollars on the exchange. You'll see there's a significant amount just sitting on the exchanges.
If polo aren't allowing deposits and withdrawals then there will be an arbitrage opportunity or a major misspricing 'spread'.
Whenever steems dollars pump to silly prices it's usually on polo. However bittrex is now taking the brunt of the selling pressure without these buyers holding it up, so it's dropping faster.
Yeah I understand all that but I was trying to figure out if there was a way to take advantage of it. For instance if some service like Changelly that I don't know about was able to still do transactions still through Poloniex which would allow an indirect method to sell the SBD for BTC and then shoot that over to Bittrex to buy more SBD and then do it over and over again.
It just doesn't make sense why someone would buy over there on Poloniex unless they are semi retarded. But that was too much volume to just be idiots.
At one point SBD's went to 6 dollars on polo, orchestrated by a pump and dump group. Im not surprised there's such a difference now.
That is nuts. I feel like Polo isn't dependable anymore. I had a friend who had trouble with Monero transactions and they shut down Etherium transactions I guess because there was problems on that network. And then Steem and Steem dollars is out of wack. I don't trust it over there anymore. But I also hate the fact that we don't have more options. There should be at least 3 English based exchanges with decent liquidity. Maybe if Polo doesn't shape up people will start using Bittrex more and then some people will find their way over to HitBTC.
I stopped using polo a month or so ago in any size once they blocked a withdrawal of mine for almost 3 days.
One of my transactions was slow getting there once but that was it. But I'm not going to use them now. Hopefully half the trade volume at least goes over to Bittrex.
Don't know whats going on at poloniex , but i think bittrex is better.
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I don't use Poloniex anymore. Just not worth the hassle and I they seem to be acting like Cryptsy did before Vern ran off to China with people's money.
That is also my feeling on the subject. The Big Vern situation is crazy but we keep seeing it over and over again. I had a friend that got Cryptsy 'ed, A friend who got Gox'd, and a friend who got MintPal 'ed
I understand why a lot of people keep tons of different coins of some of these exchanges. To run different wallets for 20 different alt coins can be a headache. The guy I know who got Gox'd. That situation didn't make sense at all. But I guess we have learned from their tough lesson.