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RE: Steem is Rising, but activity is low - If you're not actively posting, you'll miss the rewards wave... Or get hit buy it hard!
You may not catch every wave perfectly, but if you're not paddling you won't catch any. The price for rewards works on a 3.5 day moving average on the blockchain. Mainly to prevent gaming the conversion system, even though that's non-existent. Also to iron out any market shocks and manipulations.