STEEM Price Analysis – May 23, 2017
The STEEM-BTC price broke it's most recent uptrend line and may stabilize in a previous trading range.
Over the last 24 hours, the STEEM-Bitcoin price fell through its support line at ~55K satoshis and dropped all the way down to a low of 45K satoshis before finding a temporary floor. Let's take a look at the charts and see where the current prices may be heading.
The first thing we can see on the chart below is the convergence of the downtrend line from the recent highs on May 8th and 9th and the uptrend line that began a few days earlier. A pennant was forming on the 2-week chart and trading volume was also declining.
In addition, there was a slight rising wedge that was also forming over the past week. We can see that it's not very noticeable and can be easily missed. There was also negative divergence of momentum in the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence). The combination of the rising wedge, the waning momentum, and the reduced volume set up the STEEM-BTC price for a fall.
With the price breaking through the uptrend line and support at ~55K satoshis, it dropped and found some support around 46-47K satoshis, which was one of our previous support/resistance lines. This line is still confirmed by the previous retracements from the price peak on May 8th and 9th. There have been several touches of this line on both the support and resistance side since that peak.
Fibonacci retracements from the most recent move also confirm some of the same support lines and price targets. The STEEM-BTC price is currently looking at some resistance around 53-54K satoshis (red line) and appears to have made a double-bottom at ~46.5K.
The STEEM-U.S. Dollar price has actually held its uptrend line, which could be a positive sign for prices in the near-term. It also appears to continue forming a bullish ascending triangle pattern that is being squeezed towards the highs around $1.30. The STEEM-U.S. Dollar price is currently $1.15 at the time of posting.
What can we expect for STEEM-BTC prices?
There has been a lot of volume moving into Bitcoin, Ethereum, Zcash, and Dash over the last couple of days. As long as this is occurring, I wouldn't expect too many large moves into other cryptocurrencies. And even though the STEEM-BTC price had fallen over 28% in one strong move downward, the price in U.S. Dollars didn't suffer much damage, continuing its upward trend.
If current STEEM-BTC prices have not hit their near-term floor at ~46K satoshis (red line, chart below), we could see another leg down to the 40-43K range. At the time of posting, there is some moderate support around 50K and stronger technical support at 46-47K. I wouldn't expect prices to fall under 46K unless there is an influx of new selling pressure for STEEM or a flurry of activity with the previously mentioned cryptocurrencies.
If the support line can hold, then the upside targets in the near-term would first come in at 54K (blue line), which is the current line of resistance.
If the price can break through 54K, then it will likely rise to 57K. At that point, the chart gets a little messy and the price can bounce around between 57 and 61K satoshis. A likely target for resistance in that range would be around 59-60K (black line).
If the price can gain some momentum and break 60-61K, then it shouldn't have much trouble finding 65-66K satoshis again (green line).
With surging BTC, ETH, and Zcash prices, rising back up to recent highs could be a formidable task for STEEM. I would look for a likely range between 46K and 58K satoshis over the next couple of days. This is a precarious place to put in any short-term trades without stop-losses. However, buying on the low side should be a good mid- to long-term entry point if you're bullish on STEEM prices.
If you're trading, always remember:
Never invest or trade what you cannot afford to lose and put tight stop-losses in when prices creep lower towards the support lines.
As always, if you have any critiques or comments about my non-professional analysis, please let me know. If you decide to trade this market, good luck to you!
Disclaimer: I am not a professional adviser and this info should not be used for trading. These are only my interpretations and opinions, and while I would be flattered that you think so highly of my fairly basic analysis, it would not be prudent to use this for transacting/trading with real money.
*Charts are from Poloniex and Coinmarketcap.com. Analysis is current as of approximately 1:45am EST, May 23, 2017.
Damn good post! I've been watching the charts and its great to read your analysis. It's been quite useful! Thanks for this update!
You're welcome. Have you been making any trades or long-term purchases lately?
Yes, I made a couple of trades during the bigger pumps. I'm writing about it soon. Your analysis has been very helpful! Im planning some long term purchases but with this crazy pump of btc/eth not sure how much I can bring into to crypto yet.
sorry to bump in here, where do you guys trade these? I am long time forex trader, but never traded these currency.
This is all a great breakdown of data. For me, I'm always wondering in simple terms "is this good?" or "is this bad?" :) I know you invite the reader to come up with their own conclusions. :)
..I think you're right when you said:
Stability is good. I'd be happy with that..
It's actually a little bit of both. It's good that the price has corrections and can build strong support for future moves. Really, the trajectory of the most recent uptrend line wasn't sustainable, so to have it broken isn't really a shock. With everything else that's happening right now with BTC, Ethereum, and Zcash, it's actually almost expected.
It's kind of bad in the way that it happens...almost abruptly and despite strengthening statistics for users and transactions on the blockchain. It seems like trading is often detached from what's actually occurring on/with the Steem blockchain.
But I think the good outweighs the bad here and the uptrend should resume sooner rather than later. Shake out the weak hands, build some strong support, and prepare for the next leg up. If user numbers continue to increase like they have, this is going to be an interesting summer.
great post and glad this question was asked of you, im encouraged by all this, Feeling great things in long term no matter what
But there's no fun in stability.
Thanks for this post :)
You're welcome!
Good article. I promoted it.
Thank you very much, but you didn't have to do that. Save them for yourself!
Just adding some steem back into the train. Haha.
Nice analysis m8. Keeping a close watch on any momentum to break that 60-61k. Peace!
It'll need some help getting there, but it shouldn't be too long of a wait if the current longer-term uptrend is still intact.
Very detail analytic report and some very good tips about investment and trading.
Steem is reaching that tipping point where we see everyone start talking about it. This is an interesting trade going forward.
I don't know if everyone is talking about it yet, but they might be soon! We're seeing a lot of new users around here over the past couple of weeks.
I think in the long run it is a really good investment and STEEM has a lot of potential, but under current conditions it's difficult to invest in it over BTC and ETH considering the huge gains they are enjoying.
Well, one positive outlook about this could be that many buyers will see the recent spikes in those tokens and decide to look for something cheaper. And anyone taking profits might look for another good trade, which STEEM has proven to be lately.
Good post @ ats-david
Thanks!
I think quite highly of your basic analysis! :O)
Well, then I guess I can say that I have officially made it! Hooray for me!