STEEM Price Analysis – December 7, 2016

in #steem8 years ago (edited)

The Hard Fork has come and gone. It was a wild ride, but now it’s time for some realism.

We laughed. We cried. We mostly laughed. We went to the moon and back. Well, not really – but at times it at least felt like it was possible. There was a ton of action over the last few days and especially over the past 24 hours. Let’s have a look at where STEEM was, where it went, and where it might be heading.

First, let’s take a look at the uptrend line on the 7-day chart that began in the $0.15 range. There was a nice, steady and gradual rise for three days. Then, around $0.23-$0.24, things became more interesting. The STEEM price quickly shot up to $0.28, then jumped up to about $0.34. After very briefly touching that price, it retreated back to the $0.28 range and back down to the uptrend line around $0.22.

We saw a big increase in volume from the previous several days – over $1 million in 24 hours of trading. Unfortunately, this volume proved to be stronger on the selling side. This is why it’s hard to get excited about low-volume price rises, which I had cautioned readers about over the last several days. When strong hands come in, they mostly control the market – and that’s what we’ve seen through much of the day today.


12-6_steem_7d_break_volb3df7.jpg


In a span of about nine hours, the STEEM price dropped from the high around $0.34 back down to $0.23 on very heavy selling volume. When we look at the candlestick chart from poloniex, we can see that there were some rather swift and large drops in the price on the backside of the high.


12-6_steem_2d_poloniex_selloff_volb970d.jpg


The pattern that we see on the chart is what is called a “head and shoulders,” if you’re not familiar with technical analysis. This typically indicates a reversal pattern that will push the price lower in the direction of the completed second shoulder. In this case, we can reasonably expect the STEEM price to continue down to the next level of support, which would be around $0.20. We saw in the first image that the uptrend line was broken, so we look to the next target for support below that line.


12-6_steem_7d_handsfb01f.jpg


Looking at the 2-month chart, we can see the different support and resistance lines that were touched this week. The red line is the ~$0.34 high, the blue line is the $0.27-$0.28 range, and the orange line is the next level of support for the STEEM price, at ~$0.20. Prior resistance becomes new support and vice-versa. So, in order for STEEM to climb back to the recent high, it will need to break through the blue line. To reach the previous lows, it will need to fall back through the orange support line.


12-6_steem_2m_resist-support6a13e.jpg


Whether the STEEM price can hold support depends on whether the buy orders can overcome the selling pressure. The depth chart appears to be skewed in favor of support, but it also looked like this through the night before the price fell back to Earth. The buy orders quickly stack up to approximately $25,000 at $0.19 and $43,000 at $0.15. But again – this won’t mean much if the orders are pulled or if large holders decide to sell.

The sell orders are a lot smaller to the immediate upside, with the first meaningful orders coming in at ~$0.27 with total orders reaching just over $35,000. So, there’s some wiggle room to the upside based on existing orders, but things can quickly change.


12-6_steem_poloniex_depth_points6f9ea.jpg


There are a couple of lessons to be learned here, and they are:

Buy the rumor, sell the news.

And...

Don’t try to catch a falling knife.

I’ll let you – the reader – try to see if you can guess how/where they apply.

Be patient. See how these new changes from the hard fork will play out. If there’s one thing that we can be happy about, it’s that there was a lot of buzz about STEEM over the past few days, so we may see some added attention and a lot of new users. Maybe once the larger stakeholders that want to exit have exited, we’ll see a healthier market that’s not skewed by those who didn’t want the large positions in STEEM that they initially had.

We may still have a rough couple of weeks ahead as the larger hands shake out, but we have a lot more data to look at and a little better understanding of how various bits of information can influence the markets. If you’re a trader, you can use that to your advantage. If you’re a long-term investor, you still have plenty of time to make decisions.

Overall...we survived Hard Fork 2016. Maybe we can do this again sometime.


Disclaimer: I am not a professional advice giver and this info should not be used for trading. I would be flattered that you think so highly of my fairly basic analysis, but it would not be prudent to use this for trading with real money.

*Charts are from coinmarketcap.com and poloniex. Data is current as of 11:15pm EST, December 6th, 2016.

Follow me: @ats-david

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I basically see the same set of trolls here I've seen elsewhere. You guys are part of the reason this platform and coins have tanked. Keep trolling comments out of other people's threads.

I noticed this great post got flagged by @ozchartart . What's that about? I don't get it...

Critics, comments, reply's, counters, advice's, etc. are always welcome!

He apparently doesn't like comments, despite the fact that he says they are "welcome."

HA!, he sounds like "she" :)

@fyrstikken , professional trader, have "announced" to all the botowners that upvote @ozchartart 's charts, that his charts are worthless and even dangerous to people (they will loose money if they use them). After looking at @ozchartarts posts, I agree with @fyrstikken , so its better that people stop upvoting @ozchartart , since its hurting the steemit platform.

that his charts are worthless

I don't know if they're worthless, but the huge payouts for day-old charts without any context or useful analysis is a bit disturbing. It's not exactly the best way to entice better analyzers or traders to come here and provide their own content or read that of others. It just sends the wrong message overall, in my opinion.

But they can do what they want - and we can offer our thoughts on it. No harm, no foul...I suppose.

Seems like he doesnt like better competition.
Yet, all he does is mostly copy and past while basically saying "we are expecting either up or down"? Like seriously that is worth 100$? What about our past budy masteryoda?
That all pisses me off, kill yoda but let ozchart make bank...
To be honest, your analysis is 100x better with a an actual analysis.

I muted ozchart for a long time now, so I dont see it anymore, I use the mute instead of complain, but the flag on this post is not right

Your like the magical man of happiness craig, i can't imagine you complaining about anything in life.

make sense, I have seen ats-david troll for sure, but it's better to flag the trolling, not his blog post, that is using the flag for revenge

There was no trolling. I left a comment and image showing the price action that he was discussing. That was apparently "hate speech" or "trolling." I'm not sure which one he's flagging...especially on this post.

u got a very good point there, that's true.
however, they are trolling my post, my reaction was how it was, i won't pull the flag, they troll now they can deal with the consequences

Again - you call it "trolling," but I simply posted a chart and asked what your thoughts were on this post. Apparently, you didn't like it.

You can flag me if you want, but don't pretend that it has anything to do with "trolling." If you don't want people commenting or even criticizing your posts, then you should remove this from your posts immediately:

Critics, comments, reply's, counters, advice's, etc. are always welcome!

Can you point what are the trolling comments?

@ozmaster
I don't think it's a trolling... since it is not deliberately offensive nor provocative.

commenting " we already know what happened" under the comment where i put my opinion on where the price will go

furthermore, my posts have the two words:

in the title, which by any logic means, i also post what happened
P.s. my last comment on this matter,
if i get trolled i will downvote, as far as his charts go, I respect them, usually upvote them when i see them, hope I won't have anymore reasons to use the flags, I prefer the other button


and no my charts are not late, both the ones in posts(the ones with the dates as in title) and the one in comment are taken screenshot few minutes before pressing post , u obviously have to learn how to use timezones

have fun trolling around, I'm done with this pointless arguing.

@ozmaster

Yes - you were making "predictions" about what might happen, but I simply pointed out that we already knew what had happened. Your prediction was several hours too late in order for it to be a prediction. I offered you a chart that demonstrated this.

So again - if you don't want comments or criticism on your posts, then don't say that they are welcomed on your post. If they're not welcomed, then I'll know to avoid your posts altogether. But don't invite commentary, then flag people for it.

@ats-david was not trolling your post. He was making valid points, your charts hadn't been updated properly on your own admission, leaving in previous horizontal lines. He remarked that the charts you were using were several hours late and posted up a picture of an updated chart.

@ozmaster: You really should be more judicious about how you use the flag. To begin with, I think it's debatable whether his comment on your post was trolling. Regardless, flagging his post is crossing the line. Please do the right thing and remove unwarranted flags.

sure, as soon as he removes his comment

the fact is, if I downvote their comments, they will just keep trolling and trolling, you know it, I know it, cos it doesn't hurt them, the comments are mostly without real value(in terms of rewards), but once u hit the painful dot, they get all upset and i don't know what not, no trolling no flags, simple, I'd much rather press an upvote on a post like this then a flag, I think I already made that clear in the previous comment.

sure, as soon as he removes his comment

IMHO it's censorship

Can't seem to find any 'Hate Speech or Internet Trolling' in this post

Can you show me where this "hate speech" or "trolling" was?

What I said was neither hate speech, nor trolling. There is no justification for flagging unrelated posts of mine with several accounts.

Reply to ozmaster's comment
You should not downvote irrelevant posts as a revenge. Rather, you can downvote trolling comments.

Except - it wasn't a trolling comment. It was a direct response to his analysis and an invite to read my own...as he stated was welcomed in his post comments. So there's no basis whatsoever for a downvote.

Yes. I mentioned a general rule

same as I replied above, the fact is, if I downvote their comments, they will just keep trolling and trolling, you know it, I know it, cos it doesn't hurt them, the comments are mostly without real value(in terms of rewards), but once u hit the painful dot, they go cry

Your downvote has had virtually no impact on this post. I couldn't care less about the downvote from you. What I find interesting is your bit about welcoming comments - even criticism - but then flagging people for leaving comments. Your claims about trolling are baseless and your reasoning is laughable. If you don't like me or the fact that I am doing my own actual analysis, then simply ignore me. But don't pretend to be flagging because I've somehow trolled your post. Your own commentary on your posts is enough trolling for all of us, in my most humble opinion.

If you don't care why do you make such a drama of it? lets start counting to how many people u pointed out this harmless flags. u obviously aint reading, u even have false claims about me posting charts taken hours before, get ur things straight!, I dislike you? If I did I would have not voted ur charts up in the past. I'M NOT PRETENDING to be flagging your post, but I DID flag it already, wanna write constructive comments in the future? be my guest, wanna keep trolling? deal with the consequences.

If you don't care why do you make such a drama of it?

I have stated repeatedly what the issue is. If you can't comprehend that, then I can't help you. Don't invite commentary on your posts if you don't actually want it.

re-read my comments, I'm done here. This has been pointless since it started.

Great trading analysis.., I'm glad to be sitting out the trading of Steem. It's all accumulate for me, long term.

I'm right there with ya gregm! Long-term accumulation is the way. I'm taking full advantage of this sale. Ranked #418 on Steemwhales.com and climbing. lol :)

Very nice! Full Steem ahead.

Yes, I'm also in accumulation mode. I think much higher prices are still to come, but it all depends on how well more features and interfaces can be developed for the blockchain.

That being said - I may withdraw a small amount for some extra Christmas presents this year, but not much. I can't have my people getting used to fancy gifts all the time.

Haha agreed! 'tis the season.

At least the jugular bleeding from hyperinflation has stopped. We will hit a dollar eventually. If it's 5 cents before that, that is fine with me.

how come this post has 4 flags. it pains me when i see this. i wont lie! for newbies it so discourages. we now have fears to read replies.

Thanks for this great analysis

Excellent analysis!

Your advise about the volume was on point. Thanks for sticking your neck out and calling the shots as you see them.

That was a good STEEM BOOST! :)

Thanks for this in-depth analysis @arts-david !

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