I think you are right @curatorcat.
It seems to me that the desire for attention (for either commercial or personal purposes) will keep the Steem price up because if it drops people will buy in so they can increase the attention their posts get. Attention is not just about direct financial returns on Steemit, its about feeling like people are listening to what you are saying - that has real value. Also, if you are pushing some commercial angle attention has clear value - its what drives the whole internet advertising market. So I'd say $16.