RE: Going Mainstream! One Million Accounts By Year End? Steemit vs. Bitcoin
Note that Alexa rank is not linear when converted to page views, thus when comparing Reddit's global rank of 26 to Steemit's 17,563, the actual ratio in terms of page views is 1438, and not 17653 ÷ 26 = 679. For United States rank the ratio between the two w.r.t. to page views is 1033 which is closer to the 8799 ÷ 9 = 978 ratio of the ranks.
According to Alexa rank, we'd need 1000+ Steemits to match Reddit, but we'd also need 9 Reddits to match Facebook. But Google Trends seems to indicate that we'd need more than 9 Reddits to match Facebook (although the scale is not entirely clear). I read that Reddit has 234 million users and Facebook 1.71 billion, so that appears to be a ratio of 7.3.
So roughly as of now w.r.t. page views, we'd need 1000 Steemits to match Reddit and 10,000 to match Facebook.
But from steemd.com we can compute that roughly 85% of the signups are not active, so Steem has roughly 5000 - 10,000 users. So in terms of users, we'd need 20,000 - 40,000 copies of Steemit to match Reddit and 8 times that to match Facebook. This is because for now the Steemians are viewing many more pages than on Facebook. But this could be misleading for numerous reasons:
- early adopters are more enthusiastic
- activity on Facebook doesn't always reload the page, thus no page view incremented
- Facebook has so many mobile app users who may not be counted in Alexa's stats; whereas, Steem is primarily accessed from Steemit.com as of now.
So it is far too early to conclude that Steem is on the way to world domination.
Also note that the projection of daily signups increasing is very speculative given the extremely high volatility on the chart. Also we don't know to what degree this is a proliferation of Sybil attack accounts and/or actual increase in real people signing up.
And afaik we don't have good data on the account abandonment rate of real people, since afaik we can't easily differentiate which accounts are Sybils and which are real people.
So we are really lacking the data to make a determination of how well or poorly Steem is doing in terms of adoption and viral spread.
Fair points. I haven't compared traffic rankings with Reddit/Facebook yet. I mean Reddit's been around for 11 years and FB 12 yrs. Growth, engagement and retention are vital so there is a lot of room for improvement. Probably a lot of FB/Reddit stats are inflated too. A lot of apps just use FB for login. Yes signups are choppy, but as long as we see higher highs and higher lows we can at least get some sense of growth. I agree these are just rough metrics. Great thing is the rough metrics already look very good and the team can probably easily improve conversions & retention by 50-100%. There is already organic growth so with a referral program I think we can ensure growth rates continue.
@smooth and I discussed daily and monthly unique users, which seems to indicate Facebook is 200,000 times larger at the moment, yet we both concur we are lacking data.
That is an interesting point. I wonder if that is included in Facebook daily and monthly user stats?
Probably. Lol. You have to take everything with a grain of salt even when FB touts numbers at shareholders meetings and on financial reports. A lot of grey area. I would say 20% of FB profiles are fake with major click farms and ad bot traffic. (Side note that's why you have to be careful registering new users on Steemit as well.) Artificial bot traffic is everywhere online. FB gets away with a lot. I remember this video about facebook ads. Reddit has a lot of bots too don't they? Anyways real good data is always hard to find.
Thanks for sharing that. That may have implications on Steem's voting rewards algorithm.