Remember: Evaluating the price of STEEM is different to other projects

After the rise from 0.001 btc up to 0.005+ btc per STEEM, there are plenty of people offering their opinion or "analysis" on what STEEM price will do in the future.

Yet, any STEEM-related discussion must take into account a simple fact: The price of STEEM means different things for different groups of people.

Group 1) These will typically be bitcointalk users or outsiders who may, or may not, be trading STEEM at an exchange. These only see data like STEEM price, inflation rate, market cap, trade volume etc. They wonder how STEEM price can be sustainable if inflation rate is high. They seem unable to comprehend the details and thus cannot factor that there is no 50% dilution if one can get back 90% of the new coins. That's a result of beings outsiders, not owning STEEM power and not understanding how STEEM POWER compensates dilution.

Group 2) STEEM ecosystem participants with STEEM power invested. The experience of a “falling price” if coin supply multiplies without a proportional increase in STEEM demand, is counteracted by an increase in invested coin supply as 9 out of 10 new STEEM coins issued go to existing user accounts as STEEM POWER. In other words, when coin supply doubles, a user with 1000 SP will have ~1900 SP. 

Even a “market analysis” that “indicates a drop of 10% by date X” doesn’t apply to Group 2 as by date X they may have more STEEM POWER increase to (over)compensate.

This differences between Group 1 / ordinary STEEM traders/buyers or external parties with no participation and Group 2 / long-term STEEM POWER holders, provides a surreal reading experience when analysts or critics try to fit their market analysis in an imaginary “STEEM” that somehow unites Group 1 and Group 2 dynamics – when in fact, it’s a totally different experience that can’t fit in a single ‘box’. 

I guess, over time, some people will “get it”… Until then, remember the difference and evaluate the various analysts "analysis" with caution.