Should we buy steem now? - Better to wait a bit longer

I've been into cryptocurrencies for several years now, starting when you could buy 1 BTC for 200$. When I see the prices dropping at the moment, I can remember similar patterns in the past. I would call them seasonal fluctuations.

I'm running crypto currency faucets and I depend on ad networks to put banners and pop up's on my faucets. They are my income sources. Between June and the end of August the income from these ad networks is always dropping significantly. The bottom is often reached around the middle of August. The reason behind this is that people tend not to advertise during this period. There are holidays, it's hot and it simply doesn't pay to make ads in summer. In a way the whole ecosystem around bitcoins is slowing down around this time of the year. This is not only true for cryptocurrencies. It applies also to most other assets:

Sell in May and go away, but remember to come back in September

When bitcoin goes down, the whole crypto world follows

It is no secret that the bitcoin price is the most important factor influencing the price of the other crypto currencies. When BTC goes down 10%, most altcoins dip much more than 10%. What is different now is that we are not in a market that is simply just heading up. Bitcoin is much more distributed now. There are much more actors who own them and it becomes more difficult to manipulate the market. On the other hand bitcoin has become a real tool that is used by businesses especially online to transfer value. If the economical activities are coming back to live, people and businesses will need more bitcoins just to work. This will increase the demand and probably also the prices.

It might soon be a good moment to buy steem

The price of steem has been going down for quite some time. It is not the first time however. An interesting analysis is to compare the evolution of steem against the btc. When you look at the chart below, you see how much steem you get for one btc over time. In red, I marked the months of August 2016, 2017 and 2018. You see each time that in August steem is the most expensive expressed in bitcoins. After August steem always lost value towards btc quite drastically. The reason behind this is that in September the demand in Bitcoins increases. People start to buy ads and they need to buy them with BTC.

^{btc / steem price, source: Coingecko}

When you look at the second chart below that shows Steem towards the USD, you can't see the same patterns.

^{usd / steem price, source: Coingecko}

My opinion: Btc will increase in value, steem will take more time to follow

If we watch it from a seasonal point, steem should go on loosing towards btc in the next weeks. The reason for that being an increase in demand for btc. Steem should however keep it's value towards the dollar. If we use the pattern of the last years, it would be a good idea to own BTC now, and buy Steem in a couple of weeks.

Please don't consider this to be an investment advice. This is my personal view of things and I encourage you to do your own research and to take your own decisions.

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For several years I have been running websites called faucets where I give away cryptos for free to people willing to take them.

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