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RE: SBD Conversion Statistics 2016/10/16~2016/10/22

in #stats8 years ago (edited)

Nice to see that the SBD price increased during the week of this chart. Unfortunately it appears to have dropped subsequent to the data period (currently 93 to 94).

Actually, I think you (and as a result everyone) is overpaying for SD as it is. That will become more clear if the abit group of accounts start to actually sell their huge stack of SD.

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My SBD purchases are primarily for conversion, with the primary purpose being debt reduction. I think the price I'm paying has a small expected profit or perhaps a break even (the latter doesn't particularly bother me since it still leads to debt reduction). Of course I can't prove that since expected return is unobservable. Actual outcomes may differ on any particular trade.

The goal of SBD existing at all in this system is for it to be pegged to 1 USD. The witnesses have been and continue to be adjusting the available parameters to achieve that goal along with debt reduction.

This might be against your distribution philosophy but if more sbd increase the virtual supply doesn't that mean steem holders increase their stake without even curating (vest are <90 % of virtual supply)
So more sbd actually outstanding actually makes it more attractive to power up for passive investors.
(When vest went below 90 is when I started powering up my sbd.)
If that's the case burning sbd is counter product.

SP holders are not protected against the dilution caused by ballooning virtual supply (only from rewards, which are relatively small at this point). It does mean that SP dilution due to rewards is reduced, but the debt expansion as STEEM price declines is still very real.

In fact I'm not sure whether what you said about it being more attractive to power up now make sense at all. At 5% or 8% liquid the SP dilution is pretty low already. At 11% it might be slightly negative over time but you are risking another 5.5% instant dilution if SBD grows to 10% of market cap from its current 4.5%. Plus risking potentially severe price declines if SBD holders decide to dump rather than risk unlimited losses at >10% market cap.

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