The Growing Steem Middle Class

in #statistics6 years ago (edited)

The gif above is based upon the daily statistics posts made by @arcange. They show three dates, the last is the data on yesterday and the first is in early October, a period of just over 3 months.

The timespan chosen is arbitrary, in that it is as far back as I could scroll on Steemit.com. In that 3 months, you can see that every class other than whales have grown significantly in terms of their share of the Steem Vesting Fund (ie. Steem Power).

Whales

The largest and dominant class have grown 8.9% in terms of MV. As a percentage of the pie, they have declined from 78% to 67% or 14%. Today there are only 37 whales out of well over 500,000 accounts, and compared to 43 in October 2017.

Orcas

In absolute terms, Orcas were the fastest growing class, with a gain of 22,649 MV in three months. That represents 54% growth, very healthy growth although paltry compared to the lower brackets in relative terms. The number of Orcas have grown from 201 to 234, an increase of 33 or 16%.

Dolphins

Dolphins have grown a whopping 80% in MV. Like Orcas, their numbers grew 16%. Dolphins now represent 9.5% of the entire vesting fund, compared to 6.6% 3 months ago. Whales, Orcas and Dolphins still represent a tiny portion of Steem users, but represent 92.6% of the stake.

Minnows

"Minnow" is a bit of a misnomer, given that in order to be a Minnow today you must have about $2,500 worth of Steem Power and you can easily be considered among the 'steem elite', as even "Minnows" are within the top 2% of Steem accounts. Hardly the smallest of fish.

Yet Minnows are showing themselves to be the true 'middle class' of Steem with enormous growth. If current trends continue they should be a larger constituency than Dolphins within a few months.

In the last 3 months, they have grown from 6178 MV together to 19177 MV, or 210%! Their numbers have also swelled from 5475 to 6633 or 21%.

Redfish

Redfish are any user account below the level of a minnow which has made a transaction in the recent past. In the past three months, their collective stake has grown an astonishing 6,587%! Their population has exploded to nearly 120,000 active Redfish accounts.

Observation and Prediction

In absolute stake terms, the fastest growing bracket is Orcas, but in relative terms, every lower bracket is outperforming the one above. Particularly in the case of Minnows vs. Dolphins and Dolphins vs. Orcas, the lower bracket is growing at a fast enough % rate, that we could see them overtake the above bracket within the year 2018. Dolphins will likely have more stake together than Orcas within a few months, and Minnows could have more stake than Dolphins a few months after that.

It will take many years for Whales to no longer be the dominant segment. The data shows that it is happening. First all the other brackets combined will surpass whales within a few years, then one of the lower brackets will. Given that it is several years out, it could be minnows or even redfish that surpass whales first, rather than orcas or dolphins. While that timeframe is an era when you measure it by the lightning fast changes that happen in the crypto space, a few years is nothing in the grand scheme of things. 10 years from now, assuming this experiment is still going on, the stake distribution will be so drastically different that we'll be wondering what the fuss was all about.

Another observation is that we need more brackets. All the data is about less than 2% of accounts, and if Steem is to succeed, then "Minnow" will likely always be a fairly elite status by the current definition, 500 Steem Power would be a fortune if the network were operating on the same scale as Facebook, or even just Reddit.

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Would you please offer a breakdown of how much Steem Power you need to rank as a Dolphin, orca, and whale?
Thanks!

Awesome, thank you! 🤗

steemit has been amazing, the reward distributions might not be perfect yet but atleast there is something for everyone serious minded person that spends time and effort to bring quality to the platform hence the growth in middle class.

Oh no I'm not even a Minnow... How sad is that... it is so hard to get to 2500 Steem power with the Steem value as it is. I power Up everything and still only just hit 130 and I thoughht i was doing well lol... only 2370 to go before minnow... 😭

This is why I think there should be more brackets. It would be better for users getting a sense of progress.

Nice article. I am excited to see this. I also forgot that steemitboard has some of this functionality. I wish they had a "Ranking" like steemwhales did. @arcange

Great data! Thanks for your effort

Excellent post!! I would do another Gini coefficient, but Steemwhales doesn't work anymore. Do you know where I can (easily!) suck the necessary data out of the system?

SteemSQL is generally the easiest for queries I find.

Is there also a version where I don't have to install anything?

I don't think so. I use SQL Management Studio

hmpf too bad. I have Linux+phpmyadmin installed. By any chance, do you know how I access the blockchain with that (accident free!)?

There is an inherent question which this analysis does not and perhaps cannot reveal, and that's how much of the "lower classes" beneath whales are real, active accounts driven by people and which ones are the inheritors of delegation provided by a larger account, but essentially a puppet.

Because that makes a difference.

It is certainly feasible for the upper classes to appear to diminish in terms of population while effectively simply being a larger percentage of the population, via the mediation of bots and other stake holding non-human accounts. In some cases, this is quite useful, as when non-human agents act as community hubs and community actors, driven by external funding. In some other cases, in particular anti-content bot swarms which act to vote down particular users or content, this is less than desirable.

I accept that it may be impossible to determine whether any given account is one of these classes and thus impossible to determine whether the migration of wealth into the mid range is the result of the allocation of the reward pool from below or the delegation of wealth from above.

But this is definitely a question that needs to be taken seriously.

You're right. I use the word "account" where possible rather than users, because it is distribution across accounts which a single user can have many of (I have several, and it is the norm especially for whale users).

There are some methods that can be used to identify when a user is not the same as another, or not a bot etc. but none that work on this scale of analysis. SMT's will be bringing more identity-based features which will help.

I'm not sure that SMT's will help with the identity problem in the long term since they will ultimately make it even easier to distribute "identity" across multiple communities, some of which will not necessarily intersect. We end up with the same problem that exists now, except potentially even harder to chase down.

But in light of the identity problem, it may be difficult to actually speak reasonably about the percentage of upper echelon accounts on the blockchain. We need to know about the ratio of increase of actual tokens over that time (which is, at least, a fixed amount thankfully), compared to the distribution dynamically, with delegation taken into account.

While financial analysis isn't my field, recognizing the overall problem suggests that any analysis which tries to leverage identity is pretty much doomed to irrelevance. While we might like to take heart from the news and suggest that it means there is a rising middle class – we can't.

At least not as shown by this data.

Great analysis and wonderful to see gradual progress occurring in stake distribution.
Everyone in lower levels who want to see changes in the platform need to be active, so as not to relinquish what voting power they do have, and power up as much as possible to steer the course.
The only way people can profit from any abuse of the rewards pool is by cashing out. And in doing so they lose ground on more dedicated accounts beneath them.
SMTs & communities could really change all of these dynamics as we all may be moving tokens into custom areas we care about most. As the ocean fragments into many small ponds, many more users may have some opportunities at early investment and whale like status within the niches of their choosing.

So all those people who give out about "circle jerking whales" and uneven distribution of wealth, might eventually get a bit of chill? I've had some new friends recently sign up, and they're doing great. Steemit is full of opportunity if you put a bit of effort into it.

Distribution of wealth is a serious issue, but for me it's more important which direction it's heading rather than where we are now. High concentration of power has some advantages in the early days. It's also important that the mechanisms to distribute wealth remain in place, that it continues to work even when people feel 'locked in'.

Ah dammit for some reason I thought I was already a minnow, didn't realize there was a class lower that I am actually in lol. I guess my first real goal on this site is to be a 2%er!

In case you don't know it yet, you can look up your status on the Steemitboard... and yes, you are a tiny winy minnow;-)

"tiny winy" lol thanks for making me feel even smaller

yes, that was my intention. I still remember being that small and I couldn't wait growing out of that to make fun of all the desperate minnows;-)

I will follow you now.

Haha thanks! I don't mind taking a little hazing while I'm starting out. Someday soon I too will be a slightly bigger fish playing with the itty bitty fish. =)

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