Imagine another 2008 stock market collapse
Is it still fresh enough in the minds of mom and and pop investors that they would liquidate their positions much sooner? May the drop be much quicker and more severe than anyone would think?
These pre-drops we're seeing now recover fairly nice to calm the worry, so that when the real drop happens people will be convinced to hold and/or add to positions.
Granted, mom and pop will get back in the market at new highs thinking the storm is over.
Bottom line, I think mom and pop will be fooled again just like 2008-2009. The big players of the market can play any trick they want before they decided to let this thing crumble. They know their P&L, when they've extracted all they can get, they can let it take a big tumble.
We're so high, what if the drop is worse than any thinks possible? Like $SPY around $100.