Spouse economics

Zhang Yuxi is known as a squat in the entertainment industry. He is in charge of Wang Xiaofei, his ankle Wang Quanan, and his knife Yuan Yuan. It seems that no one has beaten her, but everyone wonders why she chose a man’s vision and compared with her strong body. So much difference?

In April 2011, Zhang Yuxi married the director Wang Quan'an and married him. After marriage, she was very sweet. Who can expect Wang to go out and don't like to drive a private car, but he is keen to fight. In September 2014, because Zhang was arrested, Zhang Yuqi did not marry the blind person who could bear it. The two divorced in the second year.

In October 2016, Zhang Yuxi married the Shaoxing businessman Yuan Bayuan Lightning. This time, the fans have longed their hearts and helped her to find out the various black materials of Yuan Bayuan: the resume is mixed with false beliefs, and the predecessor is the scum male. The arrears of wages lawsuits continue to wait. Two years after the marriage, the two had a dispute and Zhang Yuxi was divorced again.

In the movie "Mermaid", Zhang Yuqi said with domineering: "I have money and body, and people who chase me are discharged from here to France!" In fact, let alone go to France, that is, people who chase you around the earth three times, if not correct The mate selection posture is only to pick the scum male by probability, which wastes both feelings and delays youth.

In fact, whether it is a female star or an ordinary person, scientific mate selection is a compulsory course. In addition to following the guidance of feelings, we must rely on the power of science to go. For example, my single friend M, recently tried to use statistics to list the following table:

1. How many women are there near me? (Shanghai: 15 million )
2. How many people are suitable for age? (20%: 3 million )
3. How many people may be single? (20%: 600,000 )
4. How many people are undergraduate? (20%: 120,000 )
5. How many people are worth? (10%: 12,000 )
6. How many people can still? (10%: 1200 )
7. How many people like beer belly? (20%: 240 )
8. How many people don't mind micro-bald? (10%: 24 )
9. How many people will my mom like? (50%: 12 )
10. How many people might like me? (10%: ≈ 1 )

As a result, the financial industry executives, who have a successful career, no shortage of garages, high hairline lines, and drunk beer, have found that there is only one person in Shanghai who is suitable for his marriage.

M's overall seemingly scientific approach is certainly not reliable. In fact, the most suitable for guiding marriage is economics. As an ancient discipline, economic principles have influenced people's choice of mate for thousands of years. This article will discuss the principles and applications of mate economics. The article is divided into four parts:

1. Marriage Timing: Best Stop Theory

1. Spouse complementarity: Pareto's optimal

1. Potential Judgment: Industry Cycle Theory

1. Pre-marital investigation: ask your mother

Enter the body section below.

1. Marriage Timing: Best Stop Theory

In 1611, the wife of the great astrophysics physicist Johannes Kepler passed away. Two years later, the scientists prepared to re-establish the family and rebuild the family.

The astronomical physicist chooses the mate, and the process is naturally very hard. Since Kepler’s last marriage was not happy, this time he took out the spirit of studying astronomy, listed a number of parameters, and conducted a detailed examination of the women in the relationship, striving to find the perfect object, which is as strict as in space. Looking for an asteroid.

Kepler was like a interview. He met with a blind date. When he saw the 5th woman, he was brightened and touched by the diligence and goodness of his partner. He wanted to stop, but after all, men are big pig hooves. The idea of ​​"Is the next one better?" drove him to continue to go to love.

In the end, Kepler had a total of 11 women, but he did not find a better one. Instead, he always worried about the 5th lady. On the way to a speech one day, he suddenly made up his mind and turned to the fifth lady's home, cheeky to propose the woman whom he refused. Fortunately, the other party agreed.

In this way, Kepler married the woman named Susan Roytlinger, who gave birth to six children, lived happily and joined hands.

Not everyone can be as lucky as Kepler. His story left us with the myth that a person should give up the idea of ​​"the next better" and determine himself after he has exchanged many objects. The ideal companion? In other words: When should I stop?

This problem is ostensibly an emotional problem, but it is essentially a mathematical problem. Its systematic solution has to wait until the 1960s after 340 years.

In February 1960, Scientific American published a set of mathematical problems, one of which was the " classic secretary problem" with the same essence as Kepler's blind date :

Suppose there are n candidates to apply for a secretarial position. As an interviewer, you should interview them and decide whether or not to do so on the spot. Yes, the interview is over, don't, change one, can't go back and hire someone who has been rejected. So what kind of strategy makes the best candidate the most likely to be selected?

The best solution to this problem is called "optimal stopping theory." The derivation process is not repeated here. Simply put: when you look at the top 37% of applicants, don't accept anyone's application; then, as long as any applicant is better than all the previous candidates, you should not hesitate to choose he.

If this conclusion is used in love, it is: to find the best object, you should decisively reject the former 37% of the pursuers (no matter how good they are), and then encounter better than 37% of the previous people. When you are a candidate, be sure to marry him, don't worry if there is better behind.

In Kepler, for example, he arranged 11 blind date for himself. The biggest way to find the ideal wife is to give up the first 11×37%≈4 ladies, and then start from the 5th, as long as the next lady. He was more admired than the previous four, and immediately terminated the blind date and married the lady.

In fact, the fifth woman Kepler encountered was better than the top four. Kepler was completely fascinated by her. In terms of probability, this lady is probably the ideal wife of Kepler. The proof is also correct. After his 11-year relationship, Kepler did not find it better than the fifth, and only found it with a cheeky face.

According to this theory, the methodology of "marriage timing" can be summarized as:

1 Estimate how many times you can talk about love in this life, using N to express. For example, suppose you start to fall in love when you are 18 years old. You can talk about 32 years old (and you will be beaten by your mother and forced to die). If you talk about it once in 2 years, then N is equal to (32-18)/2 = 7 Times

2 Calculate the critical point M = N × 37%. For example, 7×37% = 2.59 ≈ 2 times

3 Execution strategy: The former M love objects will give up, and as long as they encounter better than the former M, they will be settled. In the hypothesis, the first two lovers give up, starting from the third, as long as they are better than the first two, the relationship is determined.

Interested students can count, the maximum probability for your people, has not appeared, or has you been wrong?

Of course, a statistically based model, once used for emotional life, is too cold and blunt . Although the numbers and probabilities are far more true than the Shanmeng vows and sweet words, they are still used with caution. In fact, the "optimal stopping theory" can also be widely used for interviews, buying houses, shopping, etc. Marriage is only a small application area.

Michael Trick, a professor of operations research at Carnegie Mellon University, used this method to guide mate selection. After the end of the "observation period," he soon discovered that a girl who was dating was more than all previous dating. Excellent, in line with all the conditions that the algorithm has for this step. So decisively shot, asked her to marry.

Unexpectedly, the girl simply refused him.

This sad story can be summed up in a paragraph that is widely spread: one day, you will meet such a girl, she is gentle and considerate, beautiful and generous, not too poor, not ugly, not money, no room No car, no you.

Timing can be calculated in one direction, but marriage is a two-way choice. Before you decide to take the shot, you must first make yourself good enough, otherwise the timing of any model calculation may become a meticulous wishful thinking.

2. Spouse complementarity: Pareto's optimal

Real estate entrepreneurs have two very famous marriages, one is the marriage of Vanke founder Wang Shi, and the other is the marriage of Pan Shiyi, chairman of SOHO China.

In 1977, 25-year-old Wang Shi married his wife Wang Jiangsui. Wang Shi’s father, Wang Hui, was a subordinate of the 358th Brigade Wang Zhen and served as the director of the Liuzhou Railway Bureau. Wang Jiangsui’s father, Wang Ning, was also an old revolution. In the 1980s, he was the deputy secretary of the Guangdong Provincial Party Committee and the director of the Provincial Public Security Bureau. At that time, the leadership of the provincial party committee was later known to the world.

After demobilizing from the army, Wang Shi entered the Zhengzhou Railway Bureau and went to the university by “recommendation”. After graduation, he was assigned to the Guangzhou Railway Bureau. He met and smashed Wang Ning’s third daughter, Wang Jiangsui. After that, he sailed smoothly. He entered Guangdong Economic and Trade in 1980. The committee resigned in Shenzhen in 1983, reversing the corn in the northeast and smashing the first pot of gold.

The key word of this marriage is: the door is right.

In 1994, Zhang Xin, an investment banker who came back from Wall Street, married Pan Shiyi. Zhang Xin’s sister flew from the United States to see the brother-in-law who was born in the Tianshui countryside of Gansu and had been married twice. After reading it, she used a song to express her disappointment: “No flowers, no trees, he is a The grass that people know."

The gap between Zhang Xin and Pan Shiyi can be calculated in light years. When Zhang Xin saw Pan Shiyi for the first time, Pan Shiyi wore a suit with a sinuous suit, a tie with a big flower, and a little bald head. It was like a township entrepreneur. Zhang Xin, who graduated from Cambridge University, is an uncompromising Wall Street elite.

The key word of this marriage is: complementary advantages.

In the two marriages, the final outcome was in different directions: the marriage of Wang Shi and Wang Jiangsui was optimistic for everyone, but after 36 years of marriage, Wang Shi was put into the arms of Tian Puzhen; and the marriage of Pan Shiyi and Zhang Xin was declining by everyone, but two A tacit cooperation has created an amazing wealth. Although the feelings have been bumped, it has been maintained to this day.

In the end, it is good to be “door-to-door” or “complementary”. Before answering this question, we need to understand an economic concept.

Gary Becker, a professor of the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1992, once proposed the theory that “individuals seek to maximize their utility by finding a spouse.” According to Baker’s view, marriage should be A process that pursues Pareto Optimality .

Pareto optimalIt is an important concept in economics and has a wide range of applications in economics, engineering, and sociology. It refers to a state in which it is impossible to make some people's situation better without making anyone's situation worse. The process of purging Pareto optimality is called Pareto improvement .

The marriage of two people is a process of pursuing Pareto improvement. We can adopt a mature model:

Assume that the quality of life of a boy before marriage is indicated by X. The quality of life of a girl before marriage is represented by Y. The life after marriage is married. The things created by marriage life are represented by a variable m that changes with time. They share the resources of both parties. The income per person is (X+Y+m)/2.

In the case of door-to-door, X≈Y, then, as long as m>0, both can achieve Pareto improvement. In other words, as long as the couple can create some positive products in the marriage, they will feel each other more happy than before marriage. So most of the door-to-door marriages went very smoothly in the first few years.

In the case where the door is not correct, X and Y are very different. Assuming X=3 and Y=9, each person's income is (3+9+m)/2. When m<6, the income of each person after marriage is less than 9. At this time, the situation of Y is worse, and it is not satisfied with the marriage; when m=6, the income of each person after marriage is equal to 9. Therefore, in order to be happy in marriage, m must be greater than 6.

Therefore, marriages such as Zhang Xin and Pan Shiyi, which require great disparity, need to create quite a lot of "positive energy" in the common life after marriage, that is, m must be quite large to maintain happiness. Fortunately, Zhang Xin and Pan Shiyi are very complementary. On this point, Zhang Xin thought very clearly before marriage:

" He can teach me a lot of things. I have been living abroad, I don't understand many things in China, and he is a native Chinese entrepreneur. I hope that I can develop in China in the future. Then he is my ready-made and practical experience. Teacher. I think this marriage can be done, and I will retreat 10,000 steps. Even if I fail, I will benefit from this marriage. "

This is the attitude of marriage, which is simply the attitude of entrepreneurs to find a partner.

However, although the thought was very clear, the marriage of Pan and Zhang was still bumpy in the first two years, and even almost divorced. The latter two began to gradually understand each other. The founding SOHO China won numerous awards. The two have more than 10 billion people. It is the ever-increasing value of m that makes the marriage of two people very stable.

Of course, there is money and famous Pan, there is no shortage of girls who are going up, but the marriage is still solid, thanks to Zhang Xin’s skill: to greatly increase the cost of derailment . If you don't believe it, you can find out why the real estate agent Pan Boss, but recently transformed the photographer Pan.

Go back to Wang Shi’s marriage. Although Wang Shi’s success after marriage is inseparable from Wang Jiang’s (whether it’s for the family or for the “help” of the cause), in the “door-to-door” marriage, everyone often pursues consistency , such as family, wealth, customs, etc. But neglected complementarity .

Most Chinese men are ungrateful after a successful that not paying their achievements relationship with his wife, the marriage will work together to create value limitation to a small number of children and other range of things, namely think that m is very small . Then, after the wife burned her husband for decades, the husband turned and gave the young girl a braised pork.

In summary, the “complementary advantages” will be embarrassing in the first few years, but the more space Pareto improves, the more smooth the marriage will be; the “door-to-door” marriage will be smooth in the first few years, but due to excessive pursuit Consistency, lack of complementarity, the smaller the space for Pareto improvement, the greater the likelihood of problems.

If your career is advancing by leaps and bounds, try to find an object with complementary advantages. The initial shackles will be offset by the rapid growth of achievements. If your life is dull in the foreseeable future, then look for a target audience, perhaps Is a better choice.

3. Potential Judgment: Industry Cycle Theory

In September 2013, ex-boyfriend was able to form two reinforced Xu Ruoxi and met Li Yunfeng, chairman of Singapore Marco Polo Group. The woman's pure and sexy, male handsome and gold, two people quickly wiped out the spark of love, and a few months later they stepped into the marriage hall.

In April 2016, Xu Ruojun, who had been married for less than three years, was suddenly exposed to a crisis in her husband's company. She lost $8.2 million in a single quarter and owed more than 1.27 billion yuan in debt. She was on the verge of bankruptcy protection. Xu Ruoxi had to come back to make money after having difficulty in giving birth to a child. .

From September 2013 to April 2016, the fate seems to have opened a joke to Xu Ruoxi. But what Xu Ruoxuan didn't know was that there was indeed a mysterious power in the midst of the manipulation of her marriage. This mysterious power is called the industry cycle .

Now, let us analyze Xu Ruoxuan's ups and downs from the perspective of industry analysis. Please join the female students who are married to the giants... and the male students, carefully remember the notes.

Xu Ruoxuan’s husband, Li Yunfeng, is engaged in shipping business. Its Marco Polo Marine mainly provides two business services, one is the shipowner and chartering business, mainly for sea support vessels and bulk barges, starting from coal. Second, there are shipyards in Bataan Island, Indonesia to provide shipbuilding repair services.

Simply put, Xu Ruoxuan's post-marriage material happiness index is the maritime industry's prosperity index, the emotional happiness index, can not be said to be completely relevant, but it must be affected by it, the things that know well are not here.

The degree of prosperity of the maritime industry, there is a mature index can reflect: Baltic Dry Index (BDI). This index is actually not related to the Baltic Sea. It is calculated by weighting the current freight rates of several major routes. It reflects the degree of prosperity of the maritime industry and is very authoritative.

We pull out the relationship between Xu Ruoxi and Li Yunfeng, and combine the BDI index to get the following picture:

From the picture, we can see that when Li Yunfeng and Xu Ruoxuan met, it was just in the high point of the shipping industry, and not long after, the shipping boom was with the European debt crisis and the Chinese economic downturn, all the way down to April 2016. The news of the bankruptcy of Li Yunfeng was reported, which happened to be the low point of the industry cycle.

To sum up, it can be said that Xu Ruoxuan’s post-marriage life happiness index is determined by a maritime cycle that fluctuates for thousands of years. If she knows this, I am afraid I will see the dog stay. This is because the example of "the industry cycle affects the life after marriage" is abound.

The famous movie star Che Xiao, on January 24, 2010, married the richest man in Shanxi, Li Zhaohui, the head of Haixin Iron and Steel Group, and the luxury wedding of the two had a sensation throughout the country. In April 2012, the two divorced. In two years, it is actually a steel price cycle.

Of course, there are still some wealthy marriages, which are interfered by some sudden factors. For example, the big s Xu Xiyuan will never expect that his own luxury marriage will be related to the "eight regulations."

In March 2011, Xu Xiyuan was married to South China’s Shaodong’s Wang Xiaofei. However, what was unexpected was that after one year of the wedding, the "eight regulations" were born, and the high-end catering industry suffered heavy losses. Wang Xiaofei and his mother Zhang Lan also lost control of the company because of the lack of performance.

Of course, although the husband's wealth has been affected by the cycle, whether it is Xu Ruoxuan or Xu Xiyuan, the emotional life is very happy, and the big s "shrimp shrimp theory" is even more envious of female fans. But the question is: If their husbands were acquainted with them at the bottom of the industry, would they still marry?

In the past, there was a big brother who was engaged in private placement in Beijing. In 2015, the bull market earned hundreds of millions of dollars by playing the board. He married a three-line star, his legs were white, his enchanting and sexy, and his return rate was super high. Later, the stock market suffered N stock market crashes. The value of Big Brother’s company has shrunk by more than 95%. This year, the woman proposed a divorce, which is said to have reached the stage of trial.

People often attribute the power from the cycle to their own abilities, and when the tide recedes, they find that they are not.

For the female celebrities who want to marry the giants, the industry cycle of the husband's family is very important, and the wealthy people are booming and rising. But for the common people, the cycle of this stuff, don't be too serious. Ordinary people are accustomed to each other and support each other. It doesn't make sense to think too much.

4. Pre-marital investigation: ask your mother

It is said that in Shanghai, each question is a knife and sword, step by step, such as this: "Young man, your home parking is good to stop? How much is the parking fee? Going home is not blocked?"

This kind of routine full of routines and traps is actually the simplest method of premarital investigation. Many students who don't understand the doorway are often eliminated and don't know why.

Dai boss has a friend who is said to be a smattering of the mouth of the river. It is beautiful and not a good one. On one occasion, a friend introduced her to a rich second generation in Hebei Province, saying that she had just returned from studying in the UK, working as a tire business at home, and making joint ventures with foreign companies, with annual profits of tens of millions. So much information.

It took two days for Cishenkou to take a shadow. With this information, the company first went to the tire industry association to screen qualified enterprises, and then narrowed the scope with tax information. Finally, the company’s equity relationship was successfully narrowed down to two companies. The actual controllers of the two companies are women, and they are around 50 years old.

So, when she was on the first date with the rich second generation, she asked a question that the average girl would not ask: Auntie’s surname?

This beautiful woman who does not take the usual path is actually not in blind date, but to satisfy her desire for inquiry. After the rich second generation answered the quirky question of her mother's surname, she immediately took a seat and took the name, company, address, equity, financing, and litigation of the second generation of the mother to speak out. The chin on the opposite side almost fell off. Come down.

After the lecture, I drank a large glass of soda, and then called the waiter to pay the bill. I told the rich second generation that I was not very interested in you, and then I went away. I asked her later because you have studied the risks of his family business? She shook her head and said that it was not. The main reason for not being interested was because of ugliness.

In fact, the more educated, the better the use of various tools to do pre-marital investigations, asking the community property fees and parking fees, can only be said to be the primary means.

Take Zhang Yuqi as an example. Her recent marriage failure has a lot to do with not doing a pre-marital investigation.

5. The end

In "Tucao Conference", Zhang Yuxi said: "Who's life, there are not many big pits? Crossing the past is to grow up." Li said: "Life is very long, difficulties are behind, I don't have much Said, I feel that you have to come back sooner or later." At that time, Zhang Yuqi had not divorced for the second time.

There are indeed many pits in life, but quite a few of them can be circumvented with scientific precautions. This article gives you a summary of the four mate economics rules, which can help you avoid pits:

1. "Justice timing" tells you when to shoot
2. "School mate selection" tells what kind of person should be chosen
3. “Professional Cycle” teaches you how to judge each other's work
4. “Pre-marital investigation” introduces you to the survey methodology

Of course, all economic methodologies may end up in the face of love. After all, reason and logic are the driving force of our evolution, but feelings and love are the most fundamental foundation for us to become "people."

The full text is complete. Thank you for your patience to read, if you feel a little value or inspiration, please forward your support.

Reference materials:
[1]. The beauty of the algorithm, Christian & Griffiths, 2018
[2]. Love Math, Hannah Frye, 2016
[3]. Pareto optimality of marriage from the Dream of Red Mansions, 2012
[4]. Love Market, Marina AED Shed, 2017