Heating up in Dallas

Like the Heat to burn up Dallas for several reasons, and recommending a 4.0% AUM moneyline punt.

#1 Heat are just the much much much better team here. We like this fight mostly bc the Heat are still so underrated, despite showing how strong a team they are. While we still think Dragic is tired from his Euro-Summer victory, the Heat just have huge depth particularly at guard positions, so gives Spoelstra plenty of room to manuever intra-game. We particularly like Whiteside being biggest guy on the court, making Mavs sweat it out underneath defensively.
The Heat won by 12 at home shooting over 60% from 3 against a not very great defensive effort by Dallas last meeting, and while it COULD be closer this time around as shooting normalizes, that game didn't feature Whiteside's interior defense as he was out.

#2 J.J. Barea is out
We like the Heat even more with Barea out, Barea has been ONE constant in a topsy-turvey season for Dallas, and even coming off the bench he's been a stable force. With him out, we love the Heat's bench to put even MORE pressure on Dallas.

#3 Heat are fantastic away team, with 2nd best away record in the East. Dallas on the other hand is only 10-17 at home this year. While Dallas is better recently with experimentation, it's not enough to overcome a Heat team with a large will to win. Both teams have 2 nights rest.

Why we might lose this medium-to-large sized bet

A. Improving Dallas Mavericks.
While we've been sour on steady-eddies on Dallas roster like Dirk and Barnes, we've barely heard of these Dallas man-rookies, like Kleber, Collinsworth, and Mejri. Just who the heck ARE these guys? Dallas this year is SUCH an unwatchable product, we simply can't break down and find out, so we alot for some uncertainty here in our pick.
If these timely "no-names" rise up like they've done to teams recently, and take Pat Riley's band of misfit toys by surprise, we could lose this one. But we just think the odds are heavily in our favor.